Other Poll Averages Show What You Are Saying
I like the OP's analysis but I don't understand why he is using RCP. They have shown time and again to be biased towards republicans. There were a number of polls this week that showed Obama ahead, from well known pollsters. Where are those polls in the RCP averages? I would be bet that if those polls showed Romney up, they would be on RCP's average about 45 seconds after they were released.
However, if you go to other, non-biased poll aggregators, you see that it is pretty much 47% to 47%. That is a bit of a different narrative than Romney being ahead. In fact, if the popular vote ends up being tied in November, Obama will likely win the electoral vote. And I think the good news is, despite Romney supposedly surging, he still can't get above 47% support. He has hit that ceiling time and again. Obama, on the other hand his polled above 50% many times. One man has room to grow, the other one doesn't.