Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:28 PM

MaggieD (7,393 posts)

What is Sanders path to victory, specifically?

So it looks to me like Sanders is going to lose LA, MI, MS, FL, IL, and MD by pretty large margins. He may come close in OH, WI, NC, and PA if we are being generous. I think he will lose OH, PA, UT and NC but not by large margins. He may win WI, but not by a large margin.

Do you think he will get half the 166 Mar 8th Delegates (MI and MS)? No way. Maybe a third at best.

Do you think he will half the 691 March 15th delegates (OH, NC, IL, MO, and FL)? Again, nope.

Unless the polling is very far off (when it hasn't been in previous states) he has no chance to catch up after the 15th. In fact, realistically, I think he will be trailing her by over 300 delegates by then (versus the 200 delegates he is trailing now).

If I am correct, will he drop out after the 15th? If the situation comes about as predicted, what would be the reasoning to stay in the race? Is it credible to think he would win each of the remaining states by 70% or more in order to catch up to the lead she has built?

Thoughts?

132 replies, 6787 views

Thread info Bookmark this thread Trash this thread

Reply to this thread

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum

Replies to this discussion thread

132 replies	Author	Time	Post
What is Sanders path to victory, specifically? (Original post)	MaggieD	Mar 2016	OP
Indictment	ChairmanAgnostic	Mar 2016	#1
Well that's not going to happen	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#5
I was told they aren't hoping for an indictment...	DemocratSinceBirth	Mar 2016	#29
....	BlueMTexpat	Mar 2016	#12
I shouldn't laugh. But hanging your hopes	Hortensis	Mar 2016	#25
LOL, I can't believe repubs tricked DEM's into believing their nonsense this time! nt	BreakfastClub	Mar 2016	#124
Grasping at straws	redstateblues	Mar 2016	#38
I thought Breitbart died.	JaneyVee	Mar 2016	#51
Hahaha	peggysue2	Mar 2016	#88
Troopergate! nt	Chichiri	Mar 2016	#60
I would expect to see a RW write that post.	riversedge	Mar 2016	#76
That's pathetic	lunamagica	Mar 2016	#78
Bingo	Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin	Mar 2016	#111
LOL..	asuhornets	Mar 2016	#123
He will not drop out. Get over it.	Ed Suspicious	Mar 2016	#2
So he won't drop out even if he cannot possibly win	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#8
Why wouldn't he stay in?	gcomeau	Mar 2016	#32
Because this is NOT ABOUT GETTING BERNIE ELECTED AS THE END RESULT!	Raster	Mar 2016	#33
How does that work in practice?	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#56
This is NOT just about Dem voters, in fact, far from it.	Raster	Mar 2016	#61
I think you misunderstand the purpose of a primary	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#64
Perhaps. And I think may you misunderstand the definition of DEMOCRACY.	Raster	Mar 2016	#66
No, I think I understand it	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#70
Neither will Hillary.	dchill	Mar 2016	#35
Because to hell with your corporatist war-monger, that's why. n/t	Jester Messiah	Mar 2016	#42
A recent candidate said something about staying in the race even after trailing	morningfog	Mar 2016	#3
Clinton / Obama was 47.31% to 48.04% at the end	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#9
Until mathematically eleimnated, stay in.	morningfog	Mar 2016	#10
So should he stay in assuming he will get 70-100% of the remaining delegates?	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#19
Are you even aware that threads like this have the smell of fear on them?	kristopher	Mar 2016	#23
LOL - I don't think for one second that Bernie is going to win	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#58
No, not fear at all. No one ansered what Sander's path to Victory is yet.	riversedge	Mar 2016	#77
Sorry Maggie he is staying in and we are backing that!	bkkyosemite	Mar 2016	#96
I get that - the question is why?	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#97
Perhaps you should go to BernieSanders . com and research research research or do you	bkkyosemite	Mar 2016	#118
Why do you think I haven't?	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#119
never said anyone was stupid. Why do you try to put words in mouths.	bkkyosemite	Mar 2016	#120
To piss you off.	morningfog	Mar 2016	#129
Step 1. Gather enough delegates. Step 2. Profit! nt	Xipe Totec	Mar 2016	#4
That could be the motivation	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#11
He's so stealthy.	morningfog	Mar 2016	#13
Can you provide a rational alternative reason?	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#17
I already have you one. There are many.	morningfog	Mar 2016	#20
No it's to tear down the corrupt politicians in the Democratic Party that bow down	bkkyosemite	Mar 2016	#98
Thanks for admitting that	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#100
If Dems get blamed? You try to blame it on Bernie LOL...it will be your Queen who will	bkkyosemite	Mar 2016	#101
The only one I have seen be dishonest in this campaign is Bernie	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#103
tear is the word you used...I didn't admit anything. He is trying to make it known	bkkyosemite	Mar 2016	#117
Ooh ---- ALERT ALERT ALERT	Blus4u	Mar 2016	#126
I don't think he'll drop out	firebrand80	Mar 2016	#6
No we have not! We still absolutely feel he will win. You guys cite polls as they are today.	Ed Suspicious	Mar 2016	#16
How? What is the path to winning?	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#21
There are many primaries after the 15th.	potone	Mar 2016	#44
His pet issues are what the average American's need to address and get rid of those	bkkyosemite	Mar 2016	#99
He shouldn't drop out	metroins	Mar 2016	#7
I can agree with that being a good thing	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#15
I think we're going to have to hope	metroins	Mar 2016	#18
I got you, but candidates don't do that before dropping out	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#22
'continue to tear down the democratic party'	Joe the Revelator	Mar 2016	#113
Spike Lee said Bernie will do the right thing. We'll see.	Alfresco	Mar 2016	#14
Easy.	zappaman	Mar 2016	#24
M.S. in math and Bernie can still win. Your qualifications? It's very unlikely and the polling would	MillennialDem	Mar 2016	#37
Uh uh.	zappaman	Mar 2016	#43
Again, your qualifications?	MillennialDem	Mar 2016	#48
RE: What is Sanders path to victory, specifically?	SpazCabinet	Mar 2016	#26
Very nice Spaz!!	wendylaroux	Mar 2016	#28
So you think money can buy elections after all?	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#47
RE: So you think money can buy elections after all?	SpazCabinet	Mar 2016	#74
He doesn't have one...	SidDithers	Mar 2016	#27
I agree - nope	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#41
Best call him and tell him to drop out, right fucking now!	merrily	Mar 2016	#30
I mean, after all, we do remember what happened to Bobby Kennedy.	Ed Suspicious	Mar 2016	#53
.	merrily	Mar 2016	#95
He has NO PATH to the nomination. None. Nada. Zip. Zilch. Zero.	NurseJackie	Mar 2016	#31
This tells you his potential path to victory.	MillennialDem	Mar 2016	#34
Yes, but he has met almost none of those targets	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#36
He's at 84% of his target so far. He is absolutely the underdog now, but if you're claiming	MillennialDem	Mar 2016	#46
No, I'm saying he has no clear path now	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#49
Define clear and viable paths please, PRECISELY. I am a mathematician after all, and	MillennialDem	Mar 2016	#54
Okay, give me a realistic scenario	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#59
You didn't define the two things i asked. You are also saying realistic scenario, and that doesn't	MillennialDem	Mar 2016	#71
I see - so your method is to ignore the polls	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#75
#Hillarymath. Seriously, what the fuck? I gave mathematical scenarios, not predictions. Is Hillary	MillennialDem	Mar 2016	#79
Your math ignores the drubbing he will take by Mar 15th	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#85
No I didn't. RTFP. I gave the scenario of him being down 300 and being down 400 on	MillennialDem	Mar 2016	#90
Okay, 57.4% - is that realistic?	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#92
He only needs to win 58-60% average, not every remaining state. I honestly don't	MillennialDem	Mar 2016	#106
You are seriously getting out classed here...nt	Joe the Revelator	Mar 2016	#115
There is a different between mathematically possible, and plausible.	Adrahil	Mar 2016	#84
Do you have the exact projection for that? Because the only way I'm getting Bernie needing 65% of	MillennialDem	Mar 2016	#86
I ball parked the number based on Hillary winning 2/3rd of the delegates....	Adrahil	Mar 2016	#89
That's a pretty big assumption, IMO. It could be right, but what if it's a 58/42 split?	MillennialDem	Mar 2016	#91
That is true.	Adrahil	Mar 2016	#93
That pathway is not longer viable	Gothmog	Mar 2016	#39
Senator Sanders should peer into his conscience and do what he thinks is right.	DemocratSinceBirth	Mar 2016	#40
I want to see the vote in every state	alcibiades_mystery	Mar 2016	#45
Why?	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#50
Not sure what other poster meant but I do too. As for why? chance for my voice to be heard. If Hilla	MillennialDem	Mar 2016	#55
WI is prior to the March 15th date I'm talking about	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#62
WI is April 5th.	MillennialDem	Mar 2016	#80
So we all have our voices heard.	Qutzupalotl	Mar 2016	#63
Earning delegates until the Convention.	HooptieWagon	Mar 2016	#52
Can he win the most imporatant state, doe?	OhZone	Mar 2016	#57
As a Hillary supporter, I hope Bernie doesn't drop out.	Chichiri	Mar 2016	#65
OMG, Thank you for that!	Raster	Mar 2016	#67
If you feel this way shouldn't you be supporting Bernie?	bkkyosemite	Mar 2016	#102
I certainly don't see a path for him,	Skid Rogue	Mar 2016	#68
a hope and a prayer at this point...in 12 days not so much...	beachbum bob	Mar 2016	#69
I voted for Bernie in Virginia and while I don't see a path for him to get the nomination I see no	onenote	Mar 2016	#72
He has no chance and should dial back the criticism of Clinton n/t	taught_me_patience	Mar 2016	#73
Why he is against a hawk, one who flip flops and so are his supporters.	bkkyosemite	Mar 2016	#104
Or else what? n/t	Jester Messiah	Mar 2016	#128
Hillary being indicted before the convention.	Kaleva	Mar 2016	#81
Polling is sparse according to RCP, so I can't give you a specific path	Jon Ace	Mar 2016	#82
Something like this....	Adrahil	Mar 2016	#83
Ah, Sidney Harris. He lived in my apartment when I was growing up.	brooklynite	Mar 2016	#109
Cool! That cartoon is an all-time fave.	Adrahil	Mar 2016	#110
Votes	cherokeeprogressive	Mar 2016	#87
More delegates than Hilary at the convention.	morningfog	Mar 2016	#94
From what I've heard....he intends to	Agnosticsherbet	Mar 2016	#105
Well, if he's gonna win, he'll have	MineralMan	Mar 2016	#107
Specifically	SheenaR	Mar 2016	#108
Bernie is building a progressive movement	Depaysement	Mar 2016	#112
That's like asking what hitler's path to victory is after losing in africa, losing on the east..	dubyadiprecession	Mar 2016	#114
I haven't taken time to look at specific states.	noamnety	Mar 2016	#116
Over for Bernie...	asuhornets	Mar 2016	#121
That's my point	MaggieD	Mar 2016	#122
kick	Alfresco	Mar 2016	#125
He's going to follow the yellow brick road with all his	jillan	Mar 2016	#127
The will and wishes of the people. nt.	polly7	Mar 2016	#130
What is your motivation for asking that question? nt	ladjf	Mar 2016	#131
March 8th has arrived.	Alfresco	Mar 2016	#132

Response to MaggieD (Original post)

Thu Mar 3, 2016, 06:30 PM

ChairmanAgnostic (28,017 posts)

1. Indictment

Trial
Conviction.

What is Sanders path to victory, specifically?

1. Indictment

5. Well that's not going to happen

29. I was told they aren't hoping for an indictment...

12. ....

25. I shouldn't laugh. But hanging your hopes

124. LOL, I can't believe repubs tricked DEM's into believing their nonsense this time! nt

38. Grasping at straws

51. I thought Breitbart died.

88. Hahaha

60. Troopergate! nt

76. I would expect to see a RW write that post.

78. That's pathetic

111. Bingo

123. LOL..

2. He will not drop out. Get over it.

8. So he won't drop out even if he cannot possibly win

32. Why wouldn't he stay in?

33. Because this is NOT ABOUT GETTING BERNIE ELECTED AS THE END RESULT!

56. How does that work in practice?

61. This is NOT just about Dem voters, in fact, far from it.

64. I think you misunderstand the purpose of a primary

66. Perhaps. And I think may you misunderstand the definition of DEMOCRACY.

70. No, I think I understand it

35. Neither will Hillary.

42. Because to hell with your corporatist war-monger, that's why. n/t

3. A recent candidate said something about staying in the race even after trailing

9. Clinton / Obama was 47.31% to 48.04% at the end

10. Until mathematically eleimnated, stay in.

19. So should he stay in assuming he will get 70-100% of the remaining delegates?

23. Are you even aware that threads like this have the smell of fear on them?

58. LOL - I don't think for one second that Bernie is going to win

77. No, not fear at all. No one ansered what Sander's path to Victory is yet.

96. Sorry Maggie he is staying in and we are backing that!

97. I get that - the question is why?

118. Perhaps you should go to BernieSanders . com and research research research or do you

119. Why do you think I haven't?

120. never said anyone was stupid. Why do you try to put words in mouths.

129. To piss you off.

4. Step 1. Gather enough delegates. Step 2. Profit! nt

11. That could be the motivation

13. He's so stealthy.

17. Can you provide a rational alternative reason?

20. I already have you one. There are many.

98. No it's to tear down the corrupt politicians in the Democratic Party that bow down

100. Thanks for admitting that

101. If Dems get blamed? You try to blame it on Bernie LOL...it will be your Queen who will

103. The only one I have seen be dishonest in this campaign is Bernie

117. tear is the word you used...I didn't admit anything. He is trying to make it known

126. Ooh ---- ALERT ALERT ALERT

6. I don't think he'll drop out

16. No we have not! We still absolutely feel he will win. You guys cite polls as they are today.

21. How? What is the path to winning?

44. There are many primaries after the 15th.

99. His pet issues are what the average American's need to address and get rid of those

7. He shouldn't drop out

15. I can agree with that being a good thing

18. I think we're going to have to hope

22. I got you, but candidates don't do that before dropping out

113. 'continue to tear down the democratic party'

14. Spike Lee said Bernie will do the right thing. We'll see.

24. Easy.

37. M.S. in math and Bernie can still win. Your qualifications? It's very unlikely and the polling would

43. Uh uh.

48. Again, your qualifications?

26. RE: What is Sanders path to victory, specifically?

28. Very nice Spaz!!

47. So you think money can buy elections after all?

74. RE: So you think money can buy elections after all?

27. He doesn't have one...

41. I agree - nope

30. Best call him and tell him to drop out, right fucking now!

53. I mean, after all, we do remember what happened to Bobby Kennedy.

95. .

31. He has NO PATH to the nomination. None. Nada. Zip. Zilch. Zero.

34. This tells you his potential path to victory.

36. Yes, but he has met almost none of those targets

46. He's at 84% of his target so far. He is absolutely the underdog now, but if you're claiming

49. No, I'm saying he has no clear path now

54. Define clear and viable paths please, PRECISELY. I am a mathematician after all, and