Q: When does 56.9% = 72.6% ?

[Flying Squirrel]

A: When you have two states of roughly equal population (Georgia and Michigan) but one is a red state and one is a blue state; and it's the Democratic nomination process.

With 71.3% of the popular vote, Hillary Clinton won 72.6% of GA's delegates: 74 of them.

To match that total of 74, Bernie only needs to win 56.9% of Michigan's 130 delegates. He could probably do that with as little as 55% of the popular vote.

This is why blue states matter more in the Democratic nomination process. States that are more reliably Democratic are awarded more delegates as a proportion of their population than states that usually go red in the GE.

So don't buy the talking point that says Bernie needs to win an equal percentage of some blue states as Hillary did of some red states to take away her lead. It's not true, period.

If GA and MI were the only two states, Bernie would need 67.7% of MI's delegates to tie it up after GA had voted -- as opposed to the 72.6% some would have you believe. But in case you hadn't noticed, there are more than two states and only about a fourth of them have voted so far.

Bernie now has 412 pledged delegates. He needs only 53.3% of all the remaining 3,030 delegates (that is, 1,614) for a simple majority (2,026).

That's not hyperbole, that's fact.

[brooklynite]

1. He COULD do that with as little as 55%, but he won't...

Michigan Poll (Fox 2 Detroit): Clinton 61 - Sanders 33 - Undecided 6

[Barack_America]

8. 100% landline poll. 86% of participants >50 years of age.

Check the methodology.

1. Landline only polls are soundly denounced as "bunk" in this day and age where 43% of Americans only use cell phones.
2. 86% 50 and older. Does that sound like your America?

So the poll itself is crap, but the trend within it may have some validity, and there has been a strong shift towards Sanders since the last poll was taken.

[JDPriestly]

26. Our "landline" is actually Skype. A lot of people are like us. It's cheap.

[longship]

31. None of my extended family have land lines.

My best friends don't either.

Land lines are as dead as land line polls are. Deader than a Tyson chicken.

[PATRICK]

38. How do you do election phone calling?

It was several years ago since I last did it and it became obvious that those providing landline numbers were becoming such a minority you had to wonder how GOTV was going to work especially with door to door running up against crazy work schedules. Many landline calls were to very aged people. It seems few people want to give up their cell phones to the election poll lists or are not asked. That was years ago of course.

[Barack_America]

44. You can call cell phones, just not robo call.

There's a federal law against that.

I'm sure cell phone number lists are sold just like email.

But polls generally need to have at least 1/3 cell phone participants to be seriously considered.

[PATRICK]

56. the lists we were given

were numbers volunteered, I suppose at the time of registration, of the voters. I don't know in retrospect if they thumbed through the white pages of landlines for more. Likely there were few cell phone lists in play in our district at least.

[brooklynite]

12. Simple question: what will the Michigan Primary result be?

[dchill]

19. Oh yeah, that a simple question.

Not only are Bernie Sanders fans supposed to be completely, omnisciently informed, there supposed to be clairvoyant! My feet are burning from being held to the fire!

[Turn CO Blue]

32. If you could also round up the numbers for the PowerBall, I would split it with you. :)

And let me know who's going to be in the World Series. I want to get my tickets early.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. Respectfully, your logic is flawed.

brooklynite is making a prediction based on established probalities, ergo:

According to our latest polls-only forecast, Hillary Clinton has a greater than 99% chance of winning the Michigan primary.


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/#polls-only

and not any powers of clairvoyance he arrogates to himself.

As to your query about the World series the probability of one MLB team emerging victorious will be infinitely less than 99%, unless their opponent is a high school varsity team.

[Garrett78]

54. Yeah, this is nothing like predicting lottery numbers.

A grasp of basic math, the impact of demographics, an understanding of the US political system and polling data make it fairly easy to predict primary/caucus outcomes within a margin of error (noting, of course, that there are always some exceptions/outliers). The folks at 538 aren't palm readers; they're statisticians with a track record of success (one that they'll admit is a result of this prediction business being fairly straightforward).

*Note: Caucuses are tougher to predict than primaries, and races with numerous candidates are tougher to predict than races with 2 candidates.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. ...

According to our latest polls-only forecast, Hillary Clinton has a greater than 99% chance of winning the Michigan primary.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/#polls-only


As to the landline/cellphone frame poll versus landline only frame poll debate it's dubious methodology would cause a poll to be 30 points off. That's not social science or statistics talking. That's fanaticism.

[taught_me_patience]

2. He's down 30 in recent polling in Michigan n/t

[madfloridian]

6. He's always down in polls, but he's still hanging in there.

The poll business is getting out of control.

[Barack_America]

9. Crap poll. See my post above.

[Adrahil]

41. So, you predict a Sanders victory in MI?

Ok, see ya next Wednesday to see how that goes.

[Flying Squirrel]

13. Did I say he would win MI?

I used MI for an example because its population is equivalent to GA.

FWIW though, the last poll before OK had Bernie losing by 9 and he won by 10.

[Flying Squirrel]

55. Oops

...

[MrMickeysMom]

3. Right...

I see more crowds.... thousands.... 17,000 people who spontaneously came out for Bernie Sanders in Michigan, YUUGE numbers of same in Kansas tonight....

I see 1,000 people who came out for HRC in NY, and this wasn't spontaneous at all.

Bernie Sander's campaign has always been about the people. That is why the people will respond.

No, I don't buy the hyperbole. The only people who do are the ones who look like deer in the headlights and are quite concerned now.

K&R, and Thank You!!!

[NWCorona]

7. People need to wake up and vote!

[MrMickeysMom]

11. I'm looking forward to calling up more of them to do just that!

[SidDithers]

4. Bad math...

If Bernie wins 57% of MI, he'll get 74 delegates.
And Hillary will win 43% of MI, 56 delegates.
Net gain for Bernie is 18 delegates.

In GA, Hillary won 74 delegates by taking 71% of the vote.
Bernie got 29% and 28 delegates.
Net gain for Hillary is 44 delegates.

For Bernie to gain 44 delegates on Hillary, in Michigan, he'd have to beat her by 34%
He'd have to win Michigan 67-33.

Sorry, that ain't happening.

Sid

[bravenak]

16. Thank you for using regular math

I do not understand this foulgebra or calculose.

[Garrett78]

18. It's beyond bad.

Last edited Fri Mar 4, 2016, 03:05 AM - Edit history (1)

Plus, I don't think the delegates are allocated in accordance with the popular vote, per se. I believe it depends on the results in various districts. Whatever the case, the OP is deeply flawed. As you pointed out, +44 is much greater than +18.

[Godhumor]

51. Thanks. I'm glad you took the need away from me having to respond

Now,I just need that aspirin to kick in...

[snowy owl]

5. superdelegates?

Would a simple majority be enough to bring over super delegates? Or do we have to wait and see?

[bravenak]

17. We have to wait and see.

[MillennialDem]

36. I assume 50% + 1 (or more) superdelegates will vote for whoever wins the majority of

non-supers.

Provided there isn't some kind of meltdown or scandal right before the convention.

But there's nothing that says the supers can't rat fuck the majority delegate winner.

[thesquanderer]

46. I think super delegates might be more persuaded to change...

...based on what happens nationallly, rather than what happens in their state.

[Zynx]

10. And he'll lose Michigan by a big margin.

He'll lose Florida. He'll lose Mississippi. He'll lose Louisiana. He'll lose Illinois. He'll lose North Carolina.

[Flying Squirrel]

14. Well aren't you a ray of sunshine. nt

[Feeling the Bern]

15. Sounds like you're celebrating that fact.

[donf]

21. And if that is the case

the biggest losers will be the United States and the world.

[MelungeonWoman]

45. Ha! The NO WE CAN'T version of the Dean scream. n/t

[Cassiopeia]

20. This is why the Clinton supporters are pushing so hard for Bernie to drop out.

They've seen this math before and it didn't work out the last time they saw it.

[Garrett78]

27. It's an epic math fail.

Putting the fact that Clinton is a heavy favorite in Michigan aside, it's a bit hard to believe that not everyone sees the giant flaw in the OP--especially since it's already been pointed out in this thread.

[Cassiopeia]

29. Michigan, 1 of 35 states left.

[Garrett78]

30. Um, okay.

I'm not sure what that has to do with the obvious flaw in the OP.

[Flying Squirrel]

34. You wish...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1409545

[Garrett78]

37. And as I wrote in response...

It isn't that some states are more important, per se. It's that states with more delegates obviously have the potential to have a greater impact. *Potential* is the key word there, because a blowout victory in a state with 50 delegates is going to have more impact than a narrow victory in a state with 100 delegates.

What you wrote is this:

When does 56.9% = 72.6%?
A: When you have two states of roughly equal population (Georgia and Michigan) but one is a red state and one is a blue state; and it's the Democratic nomination process.

With 71.3% of the popular vote, Hillary Clinton won 72.6% of GA's delegates: 74 of them.

To match that total of 74, Bernie only needs to win 56.9% of Michigan's 130 delegates. He could probably do that with as little as 55% of the popular vote.

Your commentary later on about a hypothetical where GA and MI are the only 2 states doesn't change the fact that you were incredibly misleading in the first part of your post. While 56.9% might garner Sanders 74 of Michigan's delegates, his margin of victory in Michigan (18 delegates) would pale in comparison to Clinton's margin of victory in Georgia (44 delegates). So, either Sanders has to have an equivalent margin of victory in another state or he has to consistently win states with a lesser margin in order to make up the difference. It seems you may grasp that, but your post was misleading.

But it's a moot point anyway, because Clinton is a heavy favorite in most blue and purple states.

[Flying Squirrel]

39. Which is it, a math fail or just "misleading"?

I'll take misleading over a math fail, which it is not, but people who like to say that Bernie needs to take the same percentage of some later states as Hillary did in some early states are the real misleaders. I made it clear by the end of the post that Bernie needs a minimum of 53.3% of the remaining delegates overall to take the lead in pledged delegates. As we saw in 2008, that's when the real fun begins.

[hollograham]

22. Interesting post. Thanks for the math.

[silvershadow]

23. Ahh. Me so happy. nt

[Uncle Joe]

24. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, Flying Squirrel.

[MaggieD]

25. LMAO - more #Berniemath?

Oh lord this site is embarrassing for Dems.

[AzDar]

28. K & R

[JI7]

33. Doesn't Hillary get some delegates also ?

[Flying Squirrel]

35. Yes.

I'm not saying she doesn't. I'm saying blue states get more Democratic delegates than red states, all other things being equal. And that Bernie needs a lower percentage of the rest of the states to catch up.

[DrDan]

40. timing is everything - let's see how it plays out after the 15th - significant double-digit lead in

4 primaries

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. Because Math

HRC is + 29 in Florida:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-3556.html

HRC is +21 in New York:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html

HRC is + 19 in Pennsylvania:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary-4249.html

HRCis + 21 in Ohio:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary-5313.html

HRC is + 19 in Illinois:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary-5313.html


HRC is + 19 in North Carolina:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-5175.html


HRC is +14 in California:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_democratic_presidential_primary-5321.html

HRC is +19 In Michigan:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html


HRC is +31 in New Jersey:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nj/new_jersey_democratic_presidential_primary-3443.html


The senator has no plausible path to the nomination, obscurantism on the part of the senator, his supporters, and his staff notwithstanding.

[Mnpaul]

48. Hillary was +34 in Minnesota

how did that turn out?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

49. The last Minnesota poll taken was completed nearly six weeks ago.

Hillary was +34 in Minnesotae
how did that turn out?



Mnpaul

If you believe six week old polls are dispositive there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of that notion.

Oh, no need to laugh at me, pal.



P.S. If you believe that faring well in the most homogeneous areas of our nation is predictive of results in an increasingly more heterogeneous nation there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of that notion.

[MineralMan]

50. I never did get that "New Math" stuff.

If that's what you're using, you might want to think about actual delegate allocation and actual delegate count leads.

That's the math that decides who gets the nomination.

[OkSustainAg]

52. with Minnesota, Colorado, Oklahoma win

and near tie in IA. Bernie will win Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska and Kansas.

[kgnu_fan]

53. kick