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Sun Feb 19, 2012, 11:42 PM

PPP Latest Poll Santorum still leads in Michigan, race tightens

The race has tightened with Santorum's lead in Michigan down to 4% for the Feb 28th primary in Michigan.

It seems to indicate that if Romney overtakes Santorum in his home state it will be another narrow decision for Romney.




http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.

The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum's favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.

What we're seeing in Michigan is a very different story from Florida where Romney surged by effectively destroying his opponent's image- here Romney's gains have more to do with building himself up.

Groups Santorum has double digit leads with include Protestants (up 47-30), union members (up 43-23), Evangelicals (up 51-24), Tea Partiers (up 55-20), 'very conservative' voters (up 54-23), and men (up 40-28).


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Reply PPP Latest Poll Santorum still leads in Michigan, race tightens (Original post)
grantcart Feb 2012 OP
Mr.Turnip Feb 2012 #1
grantcart Feb 2012 #2
DCBob Feb 2012 #3
MjolnirTime Feb 2012 #4

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Feb 20, 2012, 12:19 AM

1. So almost no actual movement in the race if we discount PPP's last poll.

Since the 15 point lead there was an outlier, this is far more consistent with other polls taken in the last week which have all shown Santorum + 3-10 with Santo typically in the mid to high 30s and Romney in the low 30s.

I think with a race as consistent and narrow it will end up really coming down to the debate on Wednesday.

Also I would REALLY like to know who the 10% who find Santorum "too liberal" are, the idea just blows my mind.

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Response to Mr.Turnip (Reply #1)

Mon Feb 20, 2012, 06:18 AM

2. given the volatility of the race the previous PPP poll is quite consistent and they

have been among the most accurate this year.

Santorum's numbers remain almost unchanged while Romney's have improved slightly.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Feb 20, 2012, 07:21 AM

3. Interesting Santorum's numbers have not changed much.

I still think Romney is going to eek this out.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #3)

Mon Feb 20, 2012, 09:15 PM

4. of course you do.

 

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