Bernie wins in smaller, whiter, mostly caucus states. Hillary wins in bigger diverse primary states.

[RBInMaine]

What is this telling us? Hillary is way up in the polls in OH, MI, FL, and IL. If Sanders loses these, it is DEFINITELY over.

I applaud his effort, his candidacy, and what he has brought to the race. But for all intents and purposes, this is over.

[Vote2016]

1. Hillary seems like a regional candidate. Why does she do so much worse outside the Deep South?

[RBInMaine]

8. She won Nevada in the WEST, and Mass. in the NORTH. Most large primary contests have been in the

South. That is about to change on Tuesday where she is heavily favored to win in Michigan.

[Vote2016]

10. She squeaked out narrow wins in MA and NV. Her margins and Sanders' margins have been huge in the

other states (over 10% wins for Hillary in the Deep South and for Sanders outside the South).

Why is Hillary doing so much more poorly in states like Minnesota and Oklahoma and Nebraska and Kansas and Colorado and New Hampshire etc.?

[roguevalley]

13. god, I am sick of people saying this is over. in your dreams. the super delegates

won't overturn anyone's votes. There will be blood running in the streets at the convention if she decides to allow the 1% super delegates to have two votes over our one.

[Vote2016]

17. I agree with you 100%

[roguevalley]

29. It mystifies me why people say that and claim to be dems. This is the most

undemocratic thing to say, Vote2016. By the way, I don't remember see you before so welcome to DU.

[JDPriestly]

28. Virtual ties in those states.

Check out the Kansas and Nebraska results. Oklahoma, New Hampshire, Vermont, AND COLORADO.

Bernie has won the possibly Democratic states by huge margins compared to Hillary's 1% in Mass. and not much more in Iowa and Nevada.

Bernie is winning by big majorities in Northern states.

We know how the Southern states will vote in November. The same may be sais of Oklahoma, Nebraska and Kansas. Vermont, Colorado and New Hampshire are big wins for Bernie.

Massachusetts, Iowa and Nevada were very close.

Bernie is on a winning streak.

And with the exception of Vermont and Massachusetts, all of these states are somewhat conservative. Wait until Bernie gets voted for in Oregon, Washington and the big one, California -- all Bernie states.

[redstateblues]

11. Mass?

[Vote2016]

15. We agree Hillary does much better in her Deep South region than she did in MA, right? Why?

[Qutzupalotl]

36. Honestly, I think it's about religion.

Churches have great GOTV. Southern blacks would be a lot more comfortable voting for an active Christian rather than a secular Jew. They've known the Clintons for decades and see them as heroes; but they've never heard of Sanders, or if they have, it's likely to be shade.

Outside of the bible belt, the country is more secular and more aligned with Sanders' vision for the future.

[Xipe Totec]

2. If it's over, then relax. You needn't worry about the rest of the primaries

Take a chill pill and see you in November.

[UMTerp01]

3. Yeah but its not over

Yes there is a pattern in terms of the demos Bernie wins and the demos Hillary wins but its not over. Sanders has more than proven why this narrative should not be there. There's plenty of states that haven't yet voted and everyone should have their say. The math doesn't look good for him but I am still interested in seeing the final numbers once its all done.

[peacebird]

4. Really? Again? How many more times will Hills supporters declare Bernie is done? Daily, I suspect.

See, your side has said he had no chance, then when he clearly had legs your side said his momentum was over... Again. And again, and again.... But like the energizer bunny, Bernie kerps going. Outraising Herself the last 2 months in fact!

So, hey, thanks for your 'concern' but Bernie is in this to win it.

[HerbChestnut]

5. Not a day goes by on DU where race isn't used as a political wedge

Thank you for reminding me why after only being registered to this site since the summer I'm already growing tired of it.

[TM99]

6. Right now Clinton is winning the deep red southern

states with high numbers. She tied in Iowa, lost heavily in NH & VT, virtually tied in MA, and has lost a lot of blue states. Clinton is going to fail big if she is the GE candidate.

[redstateblues]

12. Love how you call losses

Ties. Up is down in Bernieworld

[TM99]

21. When they are within mere percentage points

and she was favorited months before at 40% leads, hell yes, they are virtual ties.

[JDPriestly]

32. In what Northern or Middle Western states has Hillary won by ten points or more?

[Nanjeanne]

7. Why the snide condescension? Just like the surrogates. Can't just be happy about your candidate

[ucrdem]

9. The contest is over but the race will drag on as long as Bernie keeps passing the collection basket.

Which is kind of a problem as he has a penchant for damaging negative ads of the "found on Twitter" fresh-from-the-VRWC-focus-group variety.

[eridani]

18. Clinton has a big problem with independents--40% of the voting population n/t

[ucrdem]

22. Independents didn't elect Barack in 2008 or 12

Are they important? Yes, but only as many as she needs. As long as Hillary holds the Obama coalition together, and there's no sign that she has plans to do otherwise, she can win enough Independents to eke out a win. Nobody said it would be easy and I've said all along that she's going to need every possible hand on deck to pull it off. That's why Sanders hanging around is a problem. JMHO, YMMV.

[eridani]

23. In 2008, the percentages for Dems and Independents were reversed.

Dems were 39% and independents 30%. And where are the 2008 enthusiasm levels?

[ucrdem]

25. Clinton enthusiasm right here:

Also don't forget that Hillary has her own constituencies on top of Obama's. But I've never thought it would be anything but a close shave. And while it may well be a Clinton landslide that's nothing to count on.

[eridani]

31. How many were paid to be there? n/t

[Lizzie Poppet]

27. The Obama coalition included unprecedented numbers of young voters.

Hillary has virtually zero appeal with that group.

[ucrdem]

37. Everybody loves a winner.

Right now she's focused on winning the nomination but once that's done I imagine she'll shore up her constituencies with a little help from her friends


Angela Bassett talks to students at South Carolina State University while campaigning for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton earlier this month.

[Lizzie Poppet]

38. I see no reason whatsoever to believe young voters will come aboard.

It's a difficult demographic to get to the polls. Obama did it. Hillary has shown no sign of being able to do the same. She polls horribly with those voters.

[bkkyosemite]

33. Of course he's a problem

[jfern]

14. The high Native American population in Oklahoma helped Bernie win there

[eridani]

16. You haven't explained how Clinton wins without independents

Everywhere they are going for Sanders by large margins, and they are 40% of the electorate.

[Vote2016]

19. She doesn't. She also gets ZERO crossover votes.

[Lizzie Poppet]

26. If she's the candidate, she gets crushed in the majority of swing states in November.

Independent moderates will not vote for her in large numbers: they're looking for a political outsider. She has minimal appeal to young voters. A lot of Bernie voters are independent progressives who are not willing to vote for someone they see as a center-right candidate, even if the Republican is worse. Some of the swing states have relatively few black voters, her most loyal constituency.

November could be brutal.

[eridani]

34. Depends on how gross Trump is. My point was that she is not brining in new people

Those grossed out by Trump are very likely to vote for Repubs downticket.

[MrMickeysMom]

20. I'm disgusted by your effort to make it racial...

... Not surprised.... but disgusted.

[silvershadow]

24. That's funny, I haven't even voted yet! nt

[JonLeibowitz]

30. Sanders won latinos in many Kansas precincts, FWIW. I saw it on twitter.

[Logical]

35. I wondered how long before you started whining! LOL!

[Omaha Steve]

39. Like a midwest caucus state with a 29% lead 10 day before the caucus ends in a tie where Obama WON?

[Fawke Em]

40. States like mine, Tennessee, that will never go Blue.

Double standard much?

[Attorney in Texas]

41. It's not racial. Sanders wins among Progressive Democrats, and Clinton wins non-Progressives.

Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska are Republican states, but the minority Democrats in those states are Progressives.

If you look at the minority Democrats in the Deep South states, even the Democrats they elect are not Progressive (i.e., less accepting of GLBT rights, reproductive health freedoms, collective bargaining rights, sensible gun regulation, etc.).

Clinton's success in the least Progressive region of our country (e.g., where even the Democrats are not Progressive) is not surprising, and those who insert race into the issue are missing the point.

Leaving aside the African American vote in the Deep South, Clinton wins the white vote in those states whereas she loses the white vote elsewhere. This is a cultural non-Progressive voter issue that crosses racial lines in the Deep South. STOP BLAMING AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTERS FOR THE NON-PROGRESSIVE VOTES IN THE DEEP SOUTH. The Dixiecrats (link) were NOT African Americans so stop it.

[JDPriestly]

42. California is an extremely large, extremely and truly diverse state, and Sanders will win here.

We have 546 delegates to the Democratic convention.

I have not yet seen a Hillary hard sign. I have a Sanders yard sign in my yard and have seen other ones.

Only one of my neighbors has a Hillary bumper sticker. Lots of Sanders ones.

When I go out to talk to people about Sanders they are already enthusiastic about him. I have campaigned a lot in my life. I have never seen a candidate with as much support as Bernie in my area of Los Angeles.

Not scientific, but then the polls don't seem to be very scientific this year either.

[oasis]

43. Bernie's campaign agrees. Look where their time and money was spent.

You'll see many here complain about your OP, but what you have stated is undeniably true.

[mhatrw]

44. Hillary wins in the South. That's it.

She loses or ekes out ties everywhere else.

And this is with the entire force of the Democratic party establishment and corporate media doing everything in their power to shove her down all of our throats.

My God, she is a truly terrible candidate!