2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWe are losing. Check the Real Clear map.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.htmlWhat has gone from a commanding lead with the Great Lakes region, NC, VA, and FL leaning blue, and PA solidly blue is now a 10-elector lead with all those states back in the "toss up" category. Add to that voter suppression and momentum and we have a real problem here.
I'm not urging any specific action, because there is nothing we can really do about it. Frankly, Obama blew it when he failed to take the first debate--the one with the highest number of viewers and the biggest effect--seriously. Biden dominated #2, but no one really cares who the VP is, and not many will watch #2 or #3. Not happy.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Did you even look at the map before coming here and making this dumb claim or are you just going for shock value?
Maybe you should look at this map before you tell us we're losing.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
LiberalElite
(14,691 posts)While I like your link a lot better, his is apparently current. I personally don't trust RCP anyway though.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)I don't think people know how to read websites. His is not current. His map includes a ton of states Obama leads in that are classified as 'toss-ups'. Take away toss-up states and Obama leads with just a shade under 300 electoral votes.
LiberalElite
(14,691 posts)Going by the fact that when you look at their website RIGHT NOW what's in his link is what you see. Sorry I'm unsophisticated.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)The map he's showing is not the RIGHT NOW map ... it's just a map that has arbitrarily decided to call some states toss-ups ... states OBAMA LEADS IN. If you take away all the toss-up states, Obama wins the election. On election day, those toss-up states just aren't going to amount to a tie ... someone is going to win 'em. In the polls RIGHT NOW, Obama is winning in enough toss-up states to pass 270 electoral votes.
So, when the poster says 'we're losing', he's absolutely wrong.
muriel_volestrangler
(102,108 posts)The one in the OP has some states as 'toss ups' - any state with a lead of less than 5% is marked as a toss up, in grey. The other map shows who is leading the state, whatever the margin is.
Deep13
(39,156 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)So that you don't continue to make a fool out of yourself. It does you, or any of us, no good.
brush
(56,374 posts)Deep13, try this somewhere else. We're not buying it so stop wasting our time with your negativity.
marko56
(1 post)Let's face it, every Obama supporter is ticked off by the President's weak performance in that first debate and many of us (I myself at times) become livid thinking about it. We have to move on. Biden did what he was supposed to do and the ball is really in the President's court to make his case to the American people as to why he should be reelected. By all accounts, Romney has peaked and it is now Obama's turn to have an Etch a Sketch moment by doing well in the next two debates. Can we lose? Sure. The probability of winning is in th President's favor but he has two be strong in the remaining the debates and re interview for his job like he wants another four years. Let's cheer him on Tuesday and hope he calls Romney out for whoever he pretends to be that night.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)librarylu
(503 posts)I wasn't at all ticked off by the President's performance in the first debate and neither were the people in the room I was in.
Romney's sidestepping and lying made me livid and I wish the President had slammed Romney on green industries contributing to his campaign (and who's been funding Romney's?) and their "50%" bankruptcy but at least he got through on corporate welfare.
No excuses. He did well and won by the rules of debate.
I'd rather he win the election. He's a working president and I think it's a shame he has to engage in this nonsense at all.
southern_belle
(1,647 posts)Seems like all the complete LIES and FLIP-FLOPS and the BiPolar Disorder interrupting and rudeness count for a lot more in MSM Land than Honest Truth-telling and respect!
librarylu
(503 posts)Fortunately some sane articles followed.
I read those.
Samantha
(9,314 posts)So it appears to me Romney lost that debate by default.
And this constant refrain of Obama's "weak" performance I disagree with as well. He made a smart decision not to waste his two minutes on Romney's debut of his new populist positions. He couldn't go toe-to-toe with Romney on that plus address his own position points to the biggest Republican audience he probably would have this election season. Knowing that in the ensuing days, commentators and pundits would refute the lies, Obama made a strategic decision to use his time wisely and talk to the Republicans who had tuned in. I thought it was a wise choice.
Sam
classof56
(5,376 posts)your assertion that "every Obama supporter is ticked off by...his performance in the first debate," is incorrect in that, I am an Obama supporter and I am not ticked off by his "performance in the first debate". Glad you will at least concede that we are not losing.
OBAMA/BIDEN 2012
MjolnirTime
(1,800 posts)CthulhusEvilCousin
(209 posts)The election isn't until November, and according to the map Obama is still ahead (albeit by about 10 EC votes) in solid states, with neither (allegedly) coming close to the amount necessary to win. This is assuming that the polls they are basing this on are all good polls too, as not too long ago I heard we were making gains even in Arizona.
I really don't understand the defeatist attitude with some folks, living and dying on the polls.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Go away, then.
On DU! A longtime DUer seeking to discourage phonebanking and canvassing and GOTV efforts! Unbelievable.
You're pathetic.
Deep13
(39,156 posts)pnwmom
(109,390 posts)dems_rightnow
(1,956 posts)We lost ground, but we're not losing. Romney would LOVE to trade places with us. Lots of election still to go. Maybe you should take a breather.
Progressive dog
(7,189 posts)RCP is faux news light, I can't believe that you are pretending to panic over anything on their site. Isn't this a Democratic website.
obxhead
(8,434 posts)Every daily or hourly poll until then is used for purposes of creating headlines and gossip for pundits and nothing more.
tarheelsunc
(2,117 posts)The first debate has already all but disappeared except for Big Bird.
DarthDem
(5,339 posts)PA a "tossup" - - yeah, sure. Looks like you may have missed a class or two at Concern School. Lol.
helpisontheway
(5,122 posts)Response to helpisontheway (Reply #10)
Post removed
ProSense
(116,464 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Could it be yet another Blue Yorker Zombie?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts).
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts).
DarthDem
(5,339 posts)Nice try, Captain 22 posts. Oof, these aren't even the minimally skilled trolls working the Sunday shift.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts).
daligirl519
(285 posts)That people are responding seriously to this bullshit.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Who would suggest that there is nothing we can do, no fight left in us? Only a coward. Deep13 doesn't want to fight. he's a coward. That doesn't mean the rest of us have to be.
Get out there and fight for every last vote.
Deep13
(39,156 posts)go to hell.
JimDandy
(7,318 posts)and, yes, a cowardly opinion at that.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts)October 15, 2012
Insiders See Obama Winning
A New York Magazine poll of political insiders, asked to predict the winner of the presidential election, finds President Obama overwhelmingly favored over Mitt Romney, 82% to 18%.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/15/insiders_see_obama_winning.html
http://nymag.com/news/politics/elections-2012/polls-2012-10/?mid=nymag_press
leveymg
(36,418 posts)dixiegrrrrl
(60,011 posts)"RealClearPolitics is a political news and polling data aggregator based in Chicago, Illinois. The site's founders say their goal is to give readers "ideological diversity"
They have described themselves as frustrated with what they perceive as anti-conservative, anti-Christian media bias,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RealClearPolitics
pnwmom
(109,390 posts)Mass
(27,315 posts)you can look at Talking Points Memo http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard or others. They all have a different result depending on which polls they use for this map.
BTW, most of these sites have a bias, and RealClear is definitively biased to the right.
Pennsylvania is only a tossup on RealClear because their threshold is +5 and PA's average is +4.5.
What is true is that Obama's lead a month ago has decreased. But we have not lost. This race is dead even.
LiberalFighter
(53,161 posts)You shouldn't and you should consider how reliable the source of the data.
Deep13
(39,156 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts)The president is currently leading in enough states to provide him with the 270 Electoral College Votes necessary for reelection.
Generic Brad
(14,357 posts)Romney has a lot of ground to make up in the 40 states allowing early voting. It won't be long and the President's electoral lead will be mathematically insurmountable. We are also projected to hold the Senate. I would call that winning.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts)theinquisitivechad
(322 posts)Yeah. . .about that. . .
dkf
(37,305 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts)Last edited Sun Oct 14, 2012, 03:39 PM - Edit history (1)
I wish you a long life but I hope I never, ever have to see another one of your posts here. The defeatism that permeates your whole little missive made me throw up in my mouth.
theinquisitivechad
(322 posts)If not troll-related.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts).
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)ProSense
(116,464 posts)Arizona leaning Romney.
Jim Acosta just tweeted: Obama leads 44-42% in Arizona!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251140145
Nate Silver: Arizona and the Spanish-Speaking Vote
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251141125
Mitt has issues that aren't on the radar of most pollsters.
dems_rightnow
(1,956 posts)ProSense
(116,464 posts)Sharron Angle an 83.4 percent chance of winning Nevada.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021506630
The Latino vote is massively underestimated.
ChiTownChavista
(55 posts)shocking!
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts)That way you will be raising the intelligence of all three sites.
mzmolly
(51,417 posts)We're essentially down 9 EV's from the pre-Romney 'bounce' days.
LeftInTX
(29,118 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts)You could move out of your mom's attic.
LeftInTX
(29,118 posts)Sorry if you think I have aliases.
This dip in polls has me concerned.
I guess you can say it's spurning me to action.
MajPayne2
(202 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts)Welcome to DU
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)but the LV model is flawed. It's based on assumptions about who votes. Outdated... that's why the early voters are kicking Romney's ass.. because they're not the nice white 59 year old women in wealthy conservative suburbs who have a parking space right next to the door and no longs in election day.... THAT is the "likely voter" model.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts).
mzmolly
(51,417 posts)dennis4868
(9,774 posts)for other DUers to bash you...it's weird...but if you post anything that shows you are worried about thr election you immediately get attacked. Why is that? There is reason to worry...no matter how you look at it the election is close...mych closer than it should be.
theinquisitivechad
(322 posts)Because we are not losing, we are winning according to the data cited -
But it shows unbelievable weakness. And is completely unhelpful in ANY way at this point in the election cycle. We are all savvy enough to understand the data. Better to post and say, "Hey this is interesting guys, what do you think?"
Positioned completely inappropriately.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)election work. This statement is, in my interpretation, a terms of service violation at election time, though I'm sure others would see it differently:
"I'm not urging any specific action, because there is nothing we can really do about it."
I mean, are you kidding me? In the last three-plus weeks of a tied election, this poster is suggesting that the actual, ground work of doing ELECTIONS is useless? That's not just commentary; that's insane and aggressive and unjustifiable discouragement of voter participation in the election. What is its purpose? What is the purpose of saying that? Is it just information? This is, by the way, the second or third poster who has decided to include precisely that kind of language.
I respect your posts a great deal, dennis, but you're just wrong here. There's no reason to make that statement other than suppression of volunteer activities - volunteer activities that we desperately need. We need to fight. This moves beyond commentary to a TOS violation, in my book, and I would even consider PPRing the OP for that, or a temporary time out. I know, I know. Lucky I'm not on MIRT team. But that statement is ridiculous and abusive.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts)They said our defeat was inevitable. That's a huge difference. I don't know why you obfuscated that distinction or maybe I do.
RobinA
(10,071 posts)the election gets, the more virulently will be attacked the people worried about its closeness. Watch.
ClusterFreak
(3,112 posts)Co-founder John McIntyre is a former options trader who started the RealClearPolitics site in 2000. Among the quotes attritubuted to him on Wikipedia, this is the money quote: "We have a frustration all conservatives have", which is "the bias in media against conservatives, religious conservatives, [and] Christian conservatives."
Next.
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)JeffHead
(1,186 posts)The one on Nov. 6th. It's called the election.
thevoiceofreason
(3,440 posts)This morning was far too quiet.
So, here goes:
OOHHHH NNNBOOOEEESSSS!!!!!!
november3rd
(1,113 posts)MI, PA, WI, NE and NH are not toss-ups. Neither are Oregon and Ohio.
Azathoth
(4,677 posts)Except for NH. I think that really is 50-50 this year.
Sugarcoated
(7,997 posts)Do you mean ME?
budkin
(6,849 posts)speedoo
(11,229 posts)Ed Gillespie would be proud.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts)But you can.
Wow
Wow
Wow
writes3000
(4,774 posts)theinquisitivechad
(322 posts)How does one do this?
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)Facebook and google plus buttons is a DU Rec button and above that a counter you can click on to see who Rec'd.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts)You also can see who voted in a poll. I have a problem with that, for obvious reasons, but I have no problem in seeing who recommended a thread.
writes3000
(4,774 posts)Cha
(302,922 posts)it out. Good to know who the recommenders of defeatists are.
What a silly stupid OP. Not only have to fight the Psychopathic Plutocrats but those on DU who for whatever reason set their own hair on fire.
Indpndnt
(2,391 posts)Not just the spin and fake numbers, but the idea that anyone with brains would buy this!
rtracey
(2,062 posts)Any time you get a right wing poll, it's going to show right leanings.
Rmoney screws up every day just about, says the dumbest most idiotic statements ever, had no plan for the country to run on, constantly lies, his whole campaign is one big fake and people know this, he only has the low intelligent and most but not all of the 1% in his pocket, he is severally under-performing with Women, Latinos, African-American, LGBT and many more groups of people, has a running mate who is a known liar and severally inexperienced to qualify for the job of Vice President/President and had his ass handed to him by an experienced Vice President Biden in the last debate, I almost forgot to add the constant conflict between Rmoney and Lyan they are at odds with each other on many issues - they really need to debate themselves, and on top of all of this Rmoney can not make a stand and stick with a single issue other then agreeing not to release his complete Tax Returns and so you are saying after all of this just because President Obama did not perform well in the medias so called "opinion" that we are going to lose???
Please! In the wise words of Sam Jackson... Wake The Fuck Up
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)Better not be lacin' that shit w/ PCP again!
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts)A lot of smart people, who could give a rat's ass who wins as long as they win their money are betting on the president.
Lex
(34,108 posts)Lex
(34,108 posts)courseofhistory
(801 posts)have him higher.
2 of them at 29r
1 of them at 257
1 at 285
and so on. The lowest is 237 at electoralvote.com
Posted here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251141039
At Sun Oct 14, 2012, 12:31 PM an alert was sent on the following post:
Long time poster, but an utter coward
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=142262
REASON FOR ALERT:
This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate. (See <a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=aboutus#communitystandards" target="_blank">Community Standards</a>.)
ALERTER'S COMMENTS:
Coward?
You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Sun Oct 14, 2012, 12:42 PM, and the Jury voted 2-4 to LEAVE IT.
Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: i would normally vote to hide but those in the du community do not need defeatists
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: No explanation given
Juror #4 voted to HIDE IT and said: personal attack
Juror #5 voted to HIDE IT and said: This post crosses the line.
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: No explanation given
Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)I see the chicken little concern trolls have returned...
flamingdem
(39,793 posts)MFM008
(19,962 posts)tarheelsunc
(2,117 posts)It may say Romney 47.3 - Obama 46, but this REALLY means Obama is only down 0.3 points. Remember, there are 47% of Americans who are with the President no matter what.
2roos
(29 posts)Sam is the neuroscientist from Princeton who tracks the polls - he is pro Obama - but his analysis is objective.
here is a link to the website you reference: http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/14/jerseyvotes/#more-7533
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)They consistently refuse to "take a side" and list states as toss ups are are not.
And the idea Minnesota, New Mexico and Oregon are only LEANING Dem is laughable.
By the way, click the "no toss ups" button and get back to us.
Zambero
(9,431 posts)Aside from that: Romney's multiple lies teed up for Biden. He hit it a country mile. Now Biden has teed up for the President. There are 2 debates remaining. The closing debates carry much more weight than the openers and leave a more lasting impression. Incumbent Presidents have historically performed poorly at first debates, and that doesn't always guarantee a positive outcome for their challengers. If any doubt, just Google "President Mondale" and see what might (or might not) come up.
Deep13
(39,156 posts)how come polls are so encouraging when we are winning, but they are bullshit when we aren't?
are you really suggesting that and increase in toss-ups to 146 electors does not reflect a changing dynamic. there is no quarantee that this snapshot in time will continue on that trend. people are already donating, phonebanking, canvassing etc. first, I think that stuff is more of an annoyance to people than persuasive. second, what else can ordinary people do that they are not doing now? the fact is a lot of people are really unhappy with the POTUS and the only real question for them is Romney better or worse? Obama may have blown his best chance to demonstrate that Romney is worse.
Egnever
(21,506 posts)Or maybe you don't?
Deep13
(39,156 posts)and O could lose those too.
doublethink
(6,997 posts)I can't figure out if this post is worse then your OP ...
"people are already donating, phonebanking, canvassing etc. first, I think that stuff is more of an annoyance to people than persuasive."
You can't be serious?
Deep13
(39,156 posts)Sorry if Americans that care, practicing democracy, 'annoys' you. It's just how it's done. Been that way for awhile.
Deep13
(39,156 posts)...if you did then you would know from knocking on doors, making phone calls, receiving them, the numerous tv and radio ads, and talking to people generally that people find all that intrusive and annoying.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)And now you're encouraging others do lay down and die just like you.
Seriously, you're a coward and a fool.
Deep13
(39,156 posts)Give details.
I can see why you hide behind an anonymous profile. It is easy to say so at long distance. If you had the guts to say it my face I would knock your teeth down your throat.
I have encouraged nothing. I merely state what ought to be obvious.
When I had money and time I spent both supporting candidates. The few who made it into office stabbed either the progressive cause or me personally in the back. I decided when Obama renewed the Bush tax cuts--after selling us out on health care--that I would vote for him again (the alternative being so much worse) but that is all. Anyway, I haven't much choice this time around as I have neither money nor time. So fuck you and fuck your sanctimony.
Jesus, I piss off my family by arguing against every RW misconception when they bring it up. No more, you are on your own.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Other than that we should all lay down and give up just like you. Like I said, you're a coward and a fool.
I think we're glad to be rid of you. You have no fight to you.
doublethink
(6,997 posts)maybe you just need to get away from politics for awhile then. And threatening other DU'ers is kinda against the rules in here, I think. Peace.
You just made your agenda crystal clear - you're nursing a whole lotta butthurt because some Democrats have hurt your progressive sensibilities, and you want us to pay. Wow. No words.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts)Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)He is at 2pts nationally at BEST this week. That is the best that a-hole could do. That is his peak. Sorry but you can't be playing with a full deck if you see that as momentum. And if you are counting Gravis, Mason Dixon and ARG Florida polling then I suggest taking a bath with a toaster, it's kind of like a super sauna I hear.
Never mind that 3 different ESTABLISHED polls ahve OH at 4-6. A Republican can NOT win w/o OH.
But you know this. If you have 30k posts you know this - so unless you are a super troll or still pissed about Hillary I can only assume the synapses fire a little bit slower than the rest of us in which case it's going to be a long 3 weeks for you.
hockeynut57
(230 posts)like i do. from time to time i have to call my friends in other states to remind myself not everyone in these great united states are weak minded, cowards ready to blame any one not exactly like them for their failures in life. you know the ones planning the metaphoric cross burning as soon as the nascar race and larry the cable guy is over
BootinUp
(48,352 posts)graham4anything
(11,464 posts)Last edited Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:05 PM - Edit history (1)
that are related to Karl Rove or Dick Cheney and skewer the aggregate totals.
Months ago, when the media said it was a 1% lead or tied, I said he was ahead by 7%
and I continue with that.
debbie downers
sad sams
cutten runners
btw- you could write
through it all, Obama has a 10 point electoral lead even with the aggregate polls
so tell me dear reader, how is Obama NOT leading???
like d'uh.
when you ask 10000 fox junkies who they are voting for, what do you expect your result will be? Lee Atwater is laughing from Hell.
It's the political tool- the demoralization of the troops.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)He did?
graham4anything
(11,464 posts)guess you and I will go round the maypole another 1000 times in the next 32 days.
after which, you can congratulate me or I can congratulate you.
All Debbie Downers and Sad Sams do is the undercard will lose some seats, thereby depreiving us of the house, and our being able to investigate Daryl Issa for misuse of taxpayer money
JimDandy
(7,318 posts)just throw out any type of way out there defeatist statement before the votes are in, then why not this positive way out there statement before the votes are in?
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)Captain_truthteller
(14 posts)Two different things. The election is on November 6th. Nobody can be the winner yet. On the other hand, it's possible for one of the candidates to be "losing." That is a matter of interpretation. The claim that Obama already won is not a matter of interpretation.
graham4anything
(11,464 posts)besides, I am a numbers person, and the odds are 2 to 1 Obama will win (Nate Silver) himself.
which means 2 out of 3 chance
67%
how is that not winning.
The only people that are disappointed by a statment like that are people who do not want the #4 greatest president of all time to win reelection (IMHO) FDR/Lincoln/LBJ/Obama/Wilson
negativity= demoralization being used as a political tool
AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)How about Bad News Bobby? Crying Cassie? LOL.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)So even though Obama has held consistent 3-4% leads for months in several states they are still considered "tossup". Its very misleading. Many of those tossups are simply not tossups... eg. PA, WI, MI, OH.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)aren't you special.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)intaglio
(8,170 posts)You have taken the worst possible view, decided to roll over and die and are trying to persuade others to do the same.
Get out there and F'n well fight.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)you and that little mouse in your pocket
underpants
(185,360 posts)Don't worry about it - not only are the polls still skewed from the sudden 14 point jump in the Pew poll but the battlegrounds (tighter yes) are still good and our ground game is dominating there. Arizona may be in play for crying out loud.
Quantess
(27,630 posts)Okay so Obama disappointed a lot of people in the first debate, but does that mean they will vote for Romney instead? NO.
Romney and Ryan are the worst presidential candidates we have had, since...well...since EVER! And people know it!
Sekhmets Daughter
(7,515 posts)What was the purpose? Do you really believe we are fools or so readily discouraged by nonsense?
Drahthaardogs
(6,843 posts)Why would PA be a tossup state? No poll has shown less than a 2 pt Obama lead and the average is five.
I am not getting excited over this drivel.
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)Deep13
(39,156 posts)Buddaman
(503 posts)and take your buddy mitt w/ya
CreekDog
(46,192 posts)you've been here far too long to send such a defeatist message.
there is plenty we can do.
GOTV activities and other campaign work can make a huge difference.
in fact, in 2008 Nevada was won by 12 points --no poll showed that margin of victory --what we campaign volunteers did was help make that happen.
i'm pretty mad whenever anyone tells people there's "nothing they can do". that's terrible.
Onlooker
(5,636 posts)Jennicut
(25,415 posts)The VP debate in 2008 got the most but the second one got over 60 million. The second debate this year will get at least 50 million or more and that is plenty. For sure curiosity to see how Obama does it will get plenty of people.
Also, we need 4 states to win. Iowa, Wisconsin and Ohio and NH or Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio and Nevada. I think we can get those 4. PA and MI are not going Repub this year, sorry.
And Tipp/Online is the first major tracker showing a Romney bounce receding. Obama can help himself a lot on Tuesday.
Deep13
(39,156 posts)I hope O. gives a really strong showing in #2 and that many people see it. My sister saw O.'s body language as evidence of him lying, despite the objective facts.
Even if we squeak by, it will not give the kind of down-ticket lift I was hoping for. So I hope all those states come to their senses, but having been "leaning blue" and now "toss up" strongly suggests movement in the wrong direction.
Floyd_Gondolli
(1,277 posts)You hope for the opposite. Up thread you posted what a disappointment Obama has been to you.
This defeatist pablum you posted says one thing: You WANT him to lose, which is obvious to everyone but you.
zach1845
(30 posts)PA MN OR Mich are not toss ups.
NH definitly is as is Wis and OH
Lets look at this subjectivly. Romney cant be losing AZ, losing ground in the south (georgia) and increase in all the battlegrounds. but the few reliable national polls out recently have it tied or +1. unless of course he is making huge gains in states like Vermont Mass, RI ect.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)NMDemDist2
(49,313 posts)what part of 294/244 EVs with no toss ups?
no Rec for you
Harry_Scrote
(121 posts)I disagree, because you advocate, "really doing anything about it." I will not give up until the election is over. Particularly because, at the very least, if R wins, I can look back on my own efforts towards O's re-election as having tried. Thus, I cannot endorse your ideology here.
union_maid
(3,502 posts)Obama is not as far ahead as he was before debate. That's all that's happened. The election may not be a lock. If we got a little cocky when things were going so perfectly, then I guess it's not easy to come back down to earth. But things seem to be picking up again and there's no reason to think that Obama is not going to win this thing.
Kablooie
(18,712 posts)And if we do ... oh boy!
If he does half the things he says and gets to replace one or more of the justices, life is going to get pretty unpleasant for a lot of people for a long, long time to come.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)LisaL
(46,140 posts)What is the point of your post? To depress people?
Deep13
(39,156 posts)The polling data is what is. It is possible for us to lose and me mentioning it will not make make it happen. Likewise denying it won't make it not happen. You're all blaming the messenger.
K Gardner
(14,933 posts)sheesh. Why don't you just go ahead and start your next post about how the world as we know it will end the Day After Tomorrow. This one's old already.
Deep13
(39,156 posts)Do people have jobs here?
Get over yourself. BTW, that is a horribly irresponsible thing to say and makes you the moral equivalent Fred Phelps--anyone who does not agree should die.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)Pick yourself up and get tough, because there is no crying in politics. There is only fighting. If you need inspiration, go watch the VP debate.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts)Reuters
Rand
IBD-TIPP
Zogby
Deep13
(39,156 posts)After having commanding lead built over the summer, O. blows it with--not technically a bad debate performance--but one that looked bad to the average person. What's worse, I keep hearing these bullshit claims about both O. and M.R. that are not only lies factually, but represent concern over all the wrong things. (Frankly, white relatives back home, I really don't care how many Puerto Ricans live in your town and neither should you. Welfare queens? Really? Is that even a thing?)
I suppose I should have said "There is nothing MORE any of us can do about it." After all, only O. can do the debates and only his managers can make ads and schedule his local speeches.
Those tracking polls, BTW are well within the margin of fraud.
SleeplessinSoCal
(9,514 posts)What we know is we need Ohio and another tossup state. I'm still thinking Florida because its being under polled.
Raster
(20,999 posts)He gave Obama a slight bump up this morning. So Obama's trending downward has been stopped. The second Presidential debate is Tuesday. My money is on President Obama.
Deep13
(39,156 posts)WTF are people thinking?
Dawson Leery
(19,358 posts)Sugarcoated
(7,997 posts)But you ARE a loser
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)WUR DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!!!!!!!!!
FSogol
(46,062 posts)This is just the Repubs running scams to scare Democrats away from the polls. Don't fall for it.
Gravis Market is trolling DU too.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1539890
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)including Gravis. What I'd give for a cover story exposing some of these frauds.
FSogol
(46,062 posts)NPR this morning was talking about Romney's lead based on the RCP numbers. Total fiction.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts)This thread has it all... Invectives...Ad hominem attacks...Personal threats...
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts)When discussing the preceding debate and upcoming debate he reminded people that Joe Frazier knocked down Muhammad Ali in their first fight and won a unanimous decision, a fact that literally made a twelve year old Democrat Since Birth cry, However Ali came back to win the second and third fight. History remembers winners.
If the GOAT had your defeatist attitude he would have retired and denied boxing fans and everybody who believed in him the greatest era of boxing ever.
There was no quit in the GOAT and there's no quit in my president.
AspenRose
(14,916 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts)How did he put himself in that position.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts)area51
(12,071 posts)Jersey Devil
(10,013 posts)they try to scare the crap out of Democrats and then at the last minute substitute more legitimate polls so that when the next election cycle comes around they can make a claim to be "more accurate" than other sites. All anyone has to do is look them up to find out they are a right wing site but that's ok, because people will forget that by the next cycle.
Bake
(21,977 posts)But apparently it's OK. We can all relax. No need to GOTV. He's got this. We can chill the fuck out.
What kills me is how this all changed because of one blown debate????!!! What the hell was the President thinking????
Bake
HockeyMom
(14,337 posts)because of MEDIA'S pro-Republican Agenda. All you do by this, and MAILING ME as a registered Democrat Republican campaign agenda, is make me MORE DETERMINED and fired up.
Screw you, Repukes. Even my Repuke husband KNOWS this.
librechik
(30,776 posts)we are only bickering about a 5% possibility that Obama won't get elected. And yes, I suppose that bit is up for grabs.
get a grip. We even elected the hated Clinton twice.
lordjin
(53 posts)does not a presidency make.
Obama is going to win because truth is on his side. Truth is still the most potent weapon.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts)I think I'll go with the Princeton professor of neuroscience and not some random poster with an agenda:
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/15/the-passing-storm/#more-7552
Response to Deep13 (Original post)
Dash87 This message was self-deleted by its author.
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(112,867 posts)States like Pennsylvania, which acccording to their statistics have always polled in Obama's favor, are considered swing states.
craigmatic
(4,510 posts)Deep13
(39,156 posts)WTF is wrong with people?
Jersey Devil
(10,013 posts)Aside from the shameless self bumping of your own op, just exactly what are you trying to accomplish with this silly string?
Polls always close near the end of an election cycle as people go "home" to their usual voting patterns. Bill Clinton warned his supporters before his second election it would happen and it did and he won handily after the polls closed in a very similar fashion.
There are very few people who are undecided or who are going to change their minds at this point. The whole deal is mobilizing and getting out your vote. That is what matters, not some poll numbers.
Deep13
(39,156 posts)"The point" is that it is true. Isn't that enough?