tens of thousands of voters to leave democratic party...

[nadinbrzezinski]

and we have a lot of who cares, whistle past graveyard. This is partly becuase people are missing what this means at a nuts and bolts level.

Here is why it matters. It this tens of thousands leave the party in very small groups per state it will have the effect of likely cents on the dollar. BUT, turn your eyes to California, Both parties do this by the way. The money that the national party give state parties to support state operations is directly proportional to the size of the party in that state. It is truly a catch 22. At the moment the GOP in California is having issues with keeping the lights on, since they are near the point where the National Party should stop mostly funding them. The only reason, some suspect, they still give them money is, well fracking California, once a stronghold of the party of Lincoln. Now watch that bouncy ball ok...

Democrats in this state have been able to (barely) maintain their membership rolls, And I mean the barely part. In this base revolt, punishing the party picks up steam and more DEMOCRATS go into decline to state status... that will reduce the moneys the state party receives, By the way, this is one reason why states in the south have so much trouble getting attention from the national party. If it radically drops because we go down by close to 10 points, we are reaching levels of membership similar to the GOP. (I expect 2 to 3 percentage points easy, being realistic here... the revolt is that strong from what I am hearing.)

What we are seeing right now is known as punishing the parties. It is a very basic concept in political science. (it is happening on both sides), It is rare in US Politics, but it is not unprecedented. What we are seeing possibly is a party realignment. If we survive this... insofar as the Rs are a tad more obvious in their civil war, and Trump... all you center right democrats are gonna love it. If the parties realign, and I have spoken of this here in the past... it is kind of weird to see that in the news. You guys will truly become the party of business. And what you are seeing right now is just the beginning of the end (when it is obvious, it has been obvious to those paying attention for years, now decades) of the FDR-Johnson coalition. Ye are about to lose your left flank, pesky commies that they are. Celebrate. And some of the legs of the coalition will notice sooner or later and also leave the party of business. Why? Neoliberal policies hurt them. So sooner or later they will also go...

Now here is what truly will happen, becuase physics and politics abhors a vacuum, either the Republican party becomes the party of labor, like they have been in the past, not in your lifetime though... or mine... or they finish collapsing and a new party to the left of the dems will rise. Politics abhors a vacuum. And this is what will make starting with this election.and the next few cycles, dangerous. This is what is called political instability, that is also being enabled by social media and the hastening off communications.

So as you laugh and call people bad democrats, this is becoming a political science petri dish. What you are doing, has also been done in the past. It will be fun, if you like pain I suppose. And I like pain... so please continue.

Now parties are not written into the constitution and with new media we might actually be entering an era when actual parties will become less important. As is, at this point endorsements are like background noise, with the value of warm spittle, outside places like this. Really, people could not give two fucks who endorsed who for office, really. Since those USED TO MATTER a lot more, that also tells me that we are entering a new era. In some ways, this is unmapped territory, in the real world that is. I have played with this very concept in fiction and at least in my mind, it is not that stable. But who the hell knows?

[Lizzie Poppet]

1. Or at least leave off being an ally.

Not leaving the party (as an independent ally, to be transparent), it's leaving me as it slinks to the right.

[nadinbrzezinski]

3. You voting for a dem in the GE matters not as much

as you registering as democrat in your party affiliation at the state level.

So people leaving the party has actual real world effects.

[Lizzie Poppet]

6. I admit my Dem registration is recent and temporary.

Oregon has a closed Democratic primary, and I changed my registration to vote for Bernie...for all that it may matter by mid-May. The day after the primary, I'm changing it back...until such time as this horrid drift to the right reverses direction.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. If the parties are realigining, it will not

what we are seeing is not unprecedented, just rare.

[Old Codger]

57. They did it

The dem party resigned from us....They went way to far right to get me to go with them....

[PatrickforO]

81. But maybe if enough of us do it, the party will listen to us.

But you're right. The Republicans were born from the Whigs and gave us land grant colleges.

[nadinbrzezinski]

85. Most folks do not understaend that history

but IMO we are FINALLY at that moment.

[NRaleighLiberal]

2. who is leaving whom (or what), in reality?

As the political parties march right-ward and up-ward (in terms of $$$/power), I suspect is many of us who are being left behind.

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. I am just talking of the nuts and bolts

and when people here make fun of people going I am leaving, they don't understand how tens of thousands of voters formally leaving the party, hurts their party.

[Metric System]

12. And what if Hillary supporters make a big stink about leaving unless you all vote for her in the

primary? So far more people have voted for Hillary than Bernie.

[nadinbrzezinski]

14. It would have the same exact effect

this is raw percentage numbers listed at the Registrar, not who the hell you voted for.

[Old Codger]

60. Once again

he party is doing much more harm to themselves than any amount of people leaving a party that has betrayed them....

[stonecutter357]

5. The Democratic in Alabama did just like me ,

And Voted Hillary Clinton .

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. And who you are REGISTERED means moneys for the state party

look at the number of registered Democrats in Alabama by percentage of voters. Your state party is in a similar place as the GOP in California.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states

You can also go to the State Registrar and look for the raw numbers.

This is extremely basic political theory, but not one that EITHER party wants out.

By the way, this has butkis with who you voted for

[tularetom]

9. I have never NOT been a Democrat, but that may change real soon

I first registered in 1962 at age 21 (that was the minimum age for voting then).

I will probably stick with the party though the primary election in June here in CA, although its an open primary, but after that I think I'm pretty well done with them.

Like the other poster, I haven't changed but the party has left me way behind in their rush toward corporatism.

[nadinbrzezinski]

10. And this is the real world effect of you going decline to state

[tularetom]

16. Well, as you said, its likely going to have to get worse before it gets better

So in the long run, any thing that hastens the collapse of the existing two party system, is a good thing.

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. That will require a constitutional ammendment

to modernize our political system. Currently that is a pipe dream

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

28. And will remain a pipe dream as long as the parties are propped up by people unwilling to toss them

aside.

Something will arise out of the ashes. But until you burn down the decayed structure, there are no ashes from which anything can rise. Merely a morass of rot.

[nadinbrzezinski]

30. I expect that to happen after a serious crisis

and we might be on the cusp of one

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

34. I think we are. I expect a Trump WH at this point.

Simply far too many Republicans turning out for primaries, and far too few Democrats. And with all 3 branches under Republican control, we're heading to hell in a handbasket fast rather than slow. The next few years are going to be damn ugly.

[nadinbrzezinski]

36. I agree

[Metric System]

11. More people have voted for Hillary than Bernie. Democrats want her as the nominee.

[nadinbrzezinski]

13. Again this has not one whit to do with who you vote

PAY ATTENTION, but who people register with. IF enough people leave a state party, that party will see less money coming from the national party.

[mindem]

29. Some democrats

not all democrats.

[timmymoff]

80. If you get your wish

be prepared for the repercussions of your wish. Let me sum it up this way. Dear democrats, it's you and only you, not me. You left me for big business and they are all yours, enjoy. I'm not voting with a boot on my neck because the other party is running an ass. You did everything you could, including using the media to shut us out, now enjoy the political process without thousands of potential voters, canvassers, donors, and other activism. You earned this, own it.

[ancianita]

15. Nope. I have to see hard number to believe this. It's political hearsay. Demand evidence, I say

In the heat of primary season I'm not inclined to believe all this tantrum throwing sets any new direction in politics.

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. Keep your eye on raw numbers from the registrar

after the elections.

That is when we will truly know if the threats translate into people actually doing that. IF they do, this is the real world effect.

[ancianita]

22. But why keep amplifying hearsay. We need to just be keeping the GOTV together right now.

[nadinbrzezinski]

23. It is not hearsay

when we are starting to see this for real and it is starting to get reported. (I should add, in my state, we lead the country. this process has been underway for both parties for YEARS, and it is just accelerating)

As to GOTV... good luck with that, We are also in unprecedented territory... insofar as that is concerned. And whoever wins, their wining coalition will be out of the norm for US recent elections.

[ancianita]

24. I say what Atticus Finch would -- it's just not time to worry about that yet. Now is the time to win

[nadinbrzezinski]

31. I am sorry if my lens is not electoral

but political science, and reporting perspective.

Who your party nominates is your business, But at a larger level these trends have been at play for at least a decade. (Actually longer)

[ancianita]

40. It shows with the candidacies of Sanders, Trump, Cruz, et. al. Your thinking is great, but I do

worry that on the electoral level of primary time, it's discouraging to those who wonder about whether engaging in voting politics is worth their time and attention anymore. I guess that's why I really think we need Bernie.

The 2010 Obama Disappointment brought the abandoning of the two-party system to light.

At primary time, hearing more about it disheartens me.

[nadinbrzezinski]

41. Well at this point

I know we have entered into a very dangerous moment in US politics... and if people want to not talk about it, it will come anyway. Suffice it to say, this is not a normal election.

[ancianita]

51. Right? Not normal. And not a normal electorate this time around. I've got the popcorn out.

[mmonk]

25. Yes, it's not hear say. 2 out of 4 in my nuclear family

have decided to do so.

[Maedhros]

19. "Tantrum throwing" is very insulting.

That earns you a spot on the ignore list.

/bye.

[Hydra]

20. This is a great post

And a great example of our party's meltdown. They seem to think they can run entirely on large corp money, and have been telling us to leave.

I look forward to where this goes.

[nadinbrzezinski]

21. I am on one hand, curiosity and all that

but on the other I do not. Instability can be bad... (but it can be good long term)

[Hydra]

26. Our current "stability" is at best, transitory

The overwhelmingly lopsided economy and damaged environmental conditions are making it more and more unsustainable. I said in 2008 that if our party was unwilling or unable to change course, that we'd have to do it ourselves.

[nadinbrzezinski]

35. I think we are no longer stable

but that wold be me

[DiehardLiberal]

27. I respect your opinions here on DU. I agree with you and am wondering if you have any ideas

on how an organized effort could be created to get the message through to the DNC that they are losing so much of the voters' support? Or is that hopeless until the election? I do not want to see 4 years of either Clinton or any Repub (not sure there is a lot of difference). As an aging boomer, I'm not sure I can survive another 4 years under the corporatocracy.

[nadinbrzezinski]

33. Parties do not get it until they get punshied

this is a reality, A petition will be ignored.

[DiehardLiberal]

37. I expected something like that. Was hoping I was wrong..

[nadinbrzezinski]

39. This is extremely basic political theory

I am sorry

[DiehardLiberal]

43. Not your fault - thanks for the response. I care deeply but am no student of political sci. Learning

[nadinbrzezinski]

52. It is fascinating

and I wonder how researchers and historians will look back at this period, Since people tend to look at much larger trends than the current election, they will not be kind to Bill Clinton and Newt Gingrich, for slightly different reasons.

[HereSince1628]

44. True on both points there. If the biggest labelled group of voters independent find a home

politics in the US will change very very quickly.

But I'm not at all sure that there is a chance for that. We've got lots of parties. We've had multiple socialist leaning parties and they have mostly not turned into anything.

Mostly I see the r's fracturing with not much of the organization falling to the tea-party

That will leave one dominant party and make internal differences and struggles in that party unbearable.

What emerges will be progressives without an organization.

How two parties emerge from that, and our system is biased toward 2 parties, depends on how the orphaned wings find organization.

[nadinbrzezinski]

47. 1824 is instructive in this respect

I suspect the Greens might have a role to play though, or the Rs if the realignment is complete, but that will take a few cycles as well.

[Enthusiast]

98. They ignore our petitions every single day.

[nadinbrzezinski]

99. That is because people keep making threats. but not

well, basic political theory.

[still_one]

32. why go small time

[nadinbrzezinski]

38. I love Sagan but cosmic time is separated from

what happens here and now in the really small things that we are. In the overall POV of really counting in the long term, no, not really. We are but a moment in time as a species

[pdsimdars]

42. Shouldn't these be things the PARTIES are thinking about?

Isn't it the parties that should be responding to the voters and what they want rather than the other way around? This seems to say that the people should accept what the party says. It should be the party that changes to adapt to the will of the poeple.

[nadinbrzezinski]

48. This is why parties get punished

[SidDithers]

45. Just like the Wig party...nt

Sid

[nadinbrzezinski]

49. Yup, I predicted what is happening to the Rs over ten years ago

here, during the Bush years, so deal with it.

[zappaman]

46. Oh, I guess one person posting this garbage wasn't enough?

[nadinbrzezinski]

50. You might want to go tell PEW and the rest that this is garbage

and it has been picking up speed.

I just said why you people laughing it up miss why it matters.

That article just said what is happening, not how it will affect the parties.

I know, I know you prefer to hide your head in the sand, So does the DNC (and RNC for that matter), It is kind of adorable to watch.

[zappaman]

92. PEW isn't bringing this crap to DU, are they?

[nadinbrzezinski]

93. DeNIAL is not just a river in Egypt

and it is quite adorable to see this kind of denial.

[zappaman]

94. Yes, I know you had to make the same post someone else did because...you.

Adorable.

[nadinbrzezinski]

95. Well you could go look at the data

Last edited Sun Mar 6, 2016, 08:06 PM - Edit history (1)

it is out there. Just requires the use of the google. OR NOT... and quite frankly calling PEW garbage, or for that matter raw data from the Secretary of state is quite ignorant as well.

Have a nice day... I will say this, denial is not a river in Egypt, and if current trends continue, at the level of party registration, well a state party that loses registered members, will lose money... deal with it. or not, I really don't give a fuck.

[TM99]

53. Well said.

I will say that the most realistic number is actually the 10 percentage points. Late last fall, the number of registered Democrat voters was at an historic low of 23%. Now due to an influx of Sanders voters in closed and semi-closed states that number as of February is 30%. That was 7% points. If they leave again, and they will and a portion of the already registered Democratic voters leave, and they will as well, then we are indeed looking at a 10 point net loss.

No candidate in the GE without the youth vote, without the independent vote, and with only 20% of registered voters for their party (no matter if they are white or PoC or male or female either!) can win the election.

[nadinbrzezinski]

54. I am talking of the effect at state level

with how many raw democrats and republicans are in the count. California has a stronger Dem party, and realistically (at the level of the registrar) it will be 2-3 percent. We do not have a need to re-register to play in the democratic primary. It is partially open, Rs Greens and I think American Independent are still closed.

[silvershadow]

55. Parties may not be written into the constitution, but hey sure are written into all manner of state

laws- most of which prevent any other person or party from even gaining ballot access. Somehow ballot access laws haven't been sufficiently challenged, to prevent the current two major parties from withholding the keys to the kingdom, as if the keys belong only to themselves.

If the realignment is happening as you outlined, and I believe it is, wherever Bernie goes I go. Meaning, he either wins this election and takes my party back to its 80-year roots, or he loses and I follow him to a new party. No sweat off my balls. The sweat off my balls came from my own hard work and union organizing, as well as my Dad's 45-year hard work in mind-numbing conditions for GM. Labor made the hard sacrifices, including death, to gain the standard of living that gave rise to the middle class.

If the Democrats are dumb enough to throw labor under the bus, they will be throwing them out on the hopes something better comes along. And fools they will be.

Just like the fool that just laughed at me on another thread. Literally laughed at my views and my story. They're doing it out in the open now.

Tragic.

[nadinbrzezinski]

59. True, 150 years of laws meant to benefit mostly two parties

but that does not mean dynamics are not in play.

[DCBob]

56. I hope they realize this is not at all what Bernie intended from his "revolution".

In fact its quite the opposite.

[nadinbrzezinski]

61. I hope you realize revolutions take many forms

And what I just described are long trends that started at least in 2000.

[DCBob]

62. I think it started before that.

I would say Ross Perot was the first signs of it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

64. I will give you that

As far as the GOP the deep seeds are actually with Reagan, but truly with Newt

[Divernan]

58. Re: whistling past graveyards

I browsed through the Clinton group earlier today and found it to be a veritable discordant symphony of whistling.

[nadinbrzezinski]

63. In Poli sci that has a descriptor too

they are called deep partisans, and they are actually the last to realize the party is in trouble. The elite in the party will do that first.

[Divernan]

75. Exactly. Like Nancy Pelosi re: super delegates

(S)omething happened today that speaks volumes about which way the tide is turning in the Democratic primary. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D – CA.) has just dropped the biggest bombshell of the campaign, and you may not even have heard about it. Mark my words, when we look back, we’ll see that this was the turning point. The Hill reported today that Pelosi came out against the superdelegate system which is currently of great benefit to Hillary Clinton.

Read more at http://www.inquisitr.com/2852213/nancy-pelosi-just-dropped-presidential-campaign-bombshell/#tzQJUxHW5z1krRJA.99


The Clintons are a political force you don’t play games with, and Pelosi knows this as well as anyone. Just a little over month ago, she was cuddling up to Hillary Clinton when she denounced Bernie Sanders’ single-payer health plan (which she used to advocate for) and heaped glowing praise on her political sister, according to Politico.

Now Pelosi — who insists she hasn’t officially endorsed anyone yet — has suddenly gone off the reservation in the Clinton camp and is advocating for changes in the Democratic primary system that would hurt Hillary Clinton’s chances of getting the nomination.

http://www.inquisitr.com/2852213/nancy-pelosi-just-dropped-presidential-campaign-bombshell/
If you listen carefully, you’ll hear the whisper of a butterfly waving its wings in China, and the thundering crash of the House of Clinton collapsing. Seriously.

Read more at http://www.inquisitr.com/2852213/nancy-pelosi-just-dropped-presidential-campaign-bombshell/#tzQJUxHW5z1krRJA.99

[nadinbrzezinski]

77. She did the same in 2008

but that is one indicator. Indeed.

[silvershadow]

66. I believe you. nt

[Dont call me Shirley]

65. Awesome rant, nadin.

[nadinbrzezinski]

67. Not a rant, just analysis

how it works. When people post links to stories, most reporters, for whatever loving reason, do not connect that dot.

These stories have been more and more common in my state as well.

[Dont call me Shirley]

68. Rantalysis?

[nadinbrzezinski]

69. Nope, just plain analysis

I do not do rants.

[Dont call me Shirley]

71. I change my words then, Awesome Analysis, nadin.

[w4rma]

70. The neoliberal wing doesn't want you in the Democratic Party. They are trying to send you away.

They don't want your vote in the Democratic Primaries, because your vote, and the votes of others like yours, will cause them to lose their power in their little sandbox. Noone is going to realign the Democratic Party to favor people over billionaires and corporations, except you and people like you.

Is someone going to do it for you? Stupid. NO. They want you to be an independent voter who never votes in primaries. They want to demotivate you. They want to break you.

The best "protest" is to BEAT THEM.

[BreakfastClub]

72. Eh, this happens in every primary. People make threats and say they're leaving

the party when they don't get their way. It never materializes into real numbers at the polls. sorry.

[nadinbrzezinski]

74. Alas I am not talking at the polls

read the OP again, please This is a dot that media rarely connects

And I will add this little piece of data, this year is such a rare election that it just might, but that is a whole different kettle of fish

[bernie_FTW]

73. that would be tragic if people didn't support the Democratic nominee

one only wonders what life for me growing up would have been if a bunch of people had voted for Gore in Florida and made it so it wasn't close. A Gore presidency would have been great compared to Bush.

I hope people are smarter this time around.

Having said that, let's hope we don't have to worry about that. GO BERNIE GO! You still have plenty of states to go!!

[nadinbrzezinski]

76. This has not one iota to do with the polls

re-read the OP.

But it has to do with a long range trend we have seen at play,

[bernie_FTW]

82. i can see what you're saying, but it doesn't compute with how well Obama has done

if it was like Bush years and people fleeing the Republican party because Bush and the Republicans were fleeing the party, I could see it. I think more Democrats are becoming liberal, but I think that is why states are passing marriage equality and marijuana legalization laws. They won't quit the party. They are laughing while the Republicans fall apart.

We have to do all we can to promote liberal candidates and win with those. But we also should support the Democratic party.

I want Bernie to win, but if he doesn't he will still be a US Senator fighting alongside Democrats to make this a better place.

[nadinbrzezinski]

84. This is why long range, and it includes the Obama years

a deep blue state like mine, has barely maintained and not continued to bleed. Though that started to accelerate after the single payer was taken off the table.

It is subtle, but this is one of those critical election cycles that imo will accelerate this process. And it is both parties.

As to the inversion if you will with the parties, it has happened in the past, So if the GOP survives, that is still a good question, many liberal democrats will be liberal republicans in 30 years, and the Ds will be the evil ones. IF current assignment of guilt also remain in place.

Chinese curses...

[bernie_FTW]

86. all I can do is try hard and wait to see. I've consulted my chakra

and my internal energy tells me we're going to beat Hillary in the primary and Democrats will sweep the elections.

[nadinbrzezinski]

89. Short term that might change a party's course

but the forces that are at play under the surface are still there.

As to beating the establishment, this (and I run an actual local media outlet actually) a very close election, Alas we are not counting super delegates. Right now they are separated by 8.5 percent and only 24 percent of delegates have been allocated so far.

The R side of the house is getting interesting though. They are also starting to enter into nail biter territory.

[2banon]

78. Interesting observations...

it will be interesting, though it's a tough call to predict outcomes (long range) whenever political instability becomes the rule of the day.

While the institutionalization of Neoliberal policies I think sowed the seeds from which the foundation of our current political instability was laid, (ala Clinton/Third Way/Wall Street).. I suspect the 2000 SCOTUS decision to determine the election outcome was pivotal point of destabilization as witnessed by everything that followed under the NeoLiberal/Neoconservative agenda ala Bush/Cheney Regime ...

Obama had no power to dismantle their agenda so I largely give him a pass on some of holdover policies which remained in place or was being promoted vis a vis "continuity of governance" policy.

On a side note: I just finished binge watching this seasons House of Cards and one line stood out in neon lights to me in the context of the story line (spoiler alert) Paraphrasing:

"Doesn't matter if the president is dead or alive, conscience or not, The president is not the person but the people who WORK for him/her)


And there you have it in so far as part of this struggle is about in terms choosing WHO we cast our ballots for and work to "elect".

[nadinbrzezinski]

79. There is another point for that... 1996

and for different reasons that is the seed for this for two major parties.

[2banon]

87. repeal of Glass-Steagal and the Communications Act

Last edited Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:55 AM - Edit history (1)

If memory serves happened in 1996. (?)

Reagan hammered the first nail in dismantling the fairness doctrine during his term, but why Clinton hammered the final nail in that coffin absolutely still boggles the mind. Presumably he thought he'd get a break from the media critics & broadcasters, but that backfired on him immediately and we've all suffered the consequences of that policy ever since and I just don't see how this will ever be reversed!

Both those policy decisions made a significant contribution to the current destabilization in my opinion. Among others.

[nadinbrzezinski]

88. Glass Steagal was on the way out

but yes. Telecommunications Act and Newt as speaker.

The Act finished the process started by Reagan to repeal the Fairness doctrine If it was still in place the media would not be able to go, TRUMP FARTED, BREAKING NEWS, and then complain about it.

Newt got into play the do not speak to the other side rule in congress and started the persecution of a president, started that party on the road towards the kind of radicalism we see.

There are other forces at play, here, I wrote a piece on this at RSD.

http://reportingsandiego.com/2016/02/29/the-chinese-curse-american-style/

I posted it here but for the most part, things like that sink,

[Enthusiast]

100. Wish you would do an OP on that. We watched it up close and personal but so many don't

realize the history of what transpired to create this destabilization fiasco.

[2banon]

101. I would if I had the writing skills. :)

it would be great if someone who did have the skills to post an OP on this recent history. As you say, so many don't know.

[cantbeserious]

83. This Revolt Has Been Building For Years - The DWS, DNC, DLC, Third-Way Has Only Themselves To Blame

eom

[Larkspur]

90. Political Parties require money to operate

It's easy to leave a political party but creating a new one requires organizing ability and the ability to raise money for it to sustain its business and candidates.

[nadinbrzezinski]

91. Correct, but parties do rise from ashes

or in our current environment, I expect a complete party realignment or the death of one (maybe two) and a third party will take the place of one of them, two if the two go away.

[randome]

96. Oh, well, there goes our transformation into Nazi Germany.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]“If you're not committed to anything, you're just taking up space.”
Gregory Peck, Mirage (1965)[/center][/font][hr]

[nadinbrzezinski]

97. For teh record, we are well on our way to that

but not quite Nazi Germany,... since if I told you dirty wars Latin America, chances are you would have no clue what I am talking about. But you might want to read into inverted totalitarianism, And that we already are... though not in full form.