Michigan: The First Bellwether

[Garrett78]

None of the Democratic primary/caucus results thus far have been very surprising. Michigan is the first state other than Texas and Georgia that has more than 100 pledged delegates. While Michigan's demographics don't mirror US demographics, Michigan is more representative than other states that have voted thus far (though you can make the case that some of the southern states are more representative of the Democratic electorate specifically).

A win by Sanders would change the narrative from "Clinton's got this" to "Clinton probably still has this but maybe not." A double digit win by Sanders would shift the narrative even more.

A narrow margin of victory for Clinton won't change the narrative, per se, but it would give the Sanders campaign a glimmer of hope.

A substantial margin of victory for Clinton will confirm what most already suspect, which is that the race is essentially over.

[metroins]

1. Seems like a fair assessment. Nt

[Barack_America]

2. As a Sanders supporter, I agree. MI is a big one.

I'll be honored to vote for him tomorrow.

[MineralMan]

3. We'll find out soon enough.

Looking forward to it. Mississippi is also on Tuesday.

[Garrett78]

4. I think we know how Mississippi will go.

It's a pretty safe bet anyway. Michigan is a little more up in the air, though I'll be surprised if Clinton doesn't win.

[MineralMan]

5. I truly doubt that Michigan is up in the air at all.

But, we'll find out tomorrow night.

[Garrett78]

6. I kind of doubt it, too...

...but it's at least more up in the air than some of the most recent primaries/caucuses. If not more up in the air, certainly the first and most substantial bellwether at this point. If I was a betting man, I'd bet on scenario 3 from my OP.

[Analytics_American]

7. Data from the last 50 years of primaries...

yield interesting conclusions; 50 years of election results are not insignificant, and as our access to data grows exponentially, our ability to decipher it becomes more and more detrimental!

https://onlinebusiness.american.edu/blog/presidential-primary-predictions/

Everyone-- eyes on the upcoming elections! Next up: Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, and Mississippi on Tuesday, March 8.

[Garrett78]

8. 50 years doesn't amount to all that many presidential elections.

Plus, demographics are changing, and the field of candidates is pretty unique this year.