Gaius Publius: Can Hillary Clinton BEAT Donald Trump? A Preliminary Look

[Segami]

We’ve been looking at the electability argument lately, and it doesn’t look good for Clinton if she’s the nominee. Below are the thoughts of one more writer who thinks Democrats shouldn’t take a chance that Clinton can pull out a win against Donald Trump. But before we get to that, consider. Clinton is beating Bernie Sanders in states that (a) will not go Democratic anyway, or (b) are filled with voters who will always vote Democratic. Sanders is beating Clinton among voters that could easily vote with Trump.

Regarding the latter, consider this, from prior to the Super Tuesday voting:

Amid Trump surge, nearly 20,000 Mass. voters quit Democratic party

Nearly 20,000 Bay State Democrats have fled the [Democratic] party this winter, with thousands doing so to join the Republican ranks, according to the state’s top elections official.

Secretary of State William Galvin said more than 16,300 Democrats have shed their party affiliation and become independent voters since Jan. 1, while nearly 3,500 more shifted to the MassGOP ahead of tomorrow’s “Super Tuesday” presidential primary.

Galvin called both “significant” changes that dwarf similar shifts ahead of other primary votes, including in 2000, when some Democrats flocked from the party in order to cast a vote for Sen. John McCain in the GOP primary.

The primary reason? Galvin said his “guess” is simple: “The Trump phenomenon,” a reference to GOP frontrunner Donald Trump, who polls show enjoying a massive lead over rivals Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and others among Massachusetts Republican voters. …

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/2016/02/amid_trump_surge_nearly_20000_mass_voters_quit_democratic_party

Now ask yourself — Who retains more of these voters for the Democratic Party, Clinton or Sanders? If you’re having trouble deciding, listen again to the first minute and a half of the audio clip above.


~snip~

Here’s that data in chart form via RealClearPolitics (source is the Greenwald article).

First Sanders vs. Trump:




Now Clinton vs. Trump




~snip~

Win with Sanders or Lose with Clinton?

The question I have, and it’s a serious one, is this. If the hard core of the Democratic establishment had to choose between these two results — Win with Sanders or lose with Clinton? — which would they choose? I honestly can’t say I know. But if they do choose the riskier candidate, they must consider the cost of a Sanders win to be even greater than the cost of a Republican win, or they wouldn’t take the risk.

Food for thought.


http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/03/gaius-publius-can-hillary-clinton-beat-donald-trump-a-preliminary-look.html

[yourpaljoey]

1. It will be ugly spectacle... Hillary will bow out due to 'health concerns'

[LonePirate]

2. So are Nevada and Virginia now states that will always vote Democratic?

The Dem nominee will win both of those states in the GE and Clinton won both of those.

[Trust Buster]

3. A seriously flawed analysis IMO.

Hillary will take Michigan, Ohio, Illinois and Florida in the next 8 days. Those are four states that the Dems must absolutely carry in the general. In addition, Hillary has crushed Sanders with the AA and Hispanic demographics. Demographics that MUST be motivated in the fall if a Democrat hopes to win.

As for Trump, Hillary would already be guaranteed 90%+ of the AA vote in the general and 75%+ of the Hispanic vote against Trump. All we need is a 6'3" ogre treating Hillary during the debates like he's treated the Republican candidates and it's game over for the female demographic. My only concern is Trump imploding before he gets the nomination. That's the real analysis.

[tazkcmo]

4. meh.

But all the women in the world will vote for Sec Clinton and who needs those Bernie Bros anyway? Also, regardless of polls showing huge disdain for Sec Clinton among Independents, Sec Clinton will win the Independent vote even though polls show huge disdain for her and who needs those Bernie Bros anyway?

Sec Clinton knows how to alienate, er, win elections! Her strategy of smearing Sen Sanders with false claims, dog whistles and surrogate misinformation is not only going to secure the Democratic Nomination, it's going to so inspire the Sen Sanders' supporters with it's awesomeness that they'll forgive all the wisher, dreamer, gun nut, racist, Zionist, sexist, communist and unrealistic bernie bro attacks on them so they too can claim to be part of the most effective, ruthless and WINNING campaign team on Earth! But really, who needs those bernie bros anyway?

Lastly, Republicans will also flock to Sec Clinton as they've been trying to derail her career since 1992 and have failed at every turn and will finally realize the futility of those efforts and embrace her with welcome relief. After all, they recognize someone they can compromise with and who among them doesn't love a Progressive Who Gets Things Done?

In summation, the All The World's Women, Awe Struck Bernie Bros and Newly Enlightened Republicans will carry Sec Clinton to an over whelming victory over ANY candidate the GOP nominates and that includes her close friend, Donald Drumpf.













sarcasm