2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCompletely Losing The Narrative
Some here may be familiar with the trajectory I have followed through the run up and beginning of the Primaries... to get anyone else up to speed really quickly:
** "Sure there are far more progressive alternatives but get real, Clinton will be the nominee and nobody better than her on the issues is remotely electable. Just face reality."
** "Ok, so Sanders is in. So what? Yeah he's better on the issues than Clinton by light years... but this is the United States and he isn't afraid of the word 'socialism'. We know how that ends."
**"Alright.... so he's doing far better than expected but come on, that's just the liberal base getting excited about him. Nobody else will support him he'll hit a ceiling."
**"Holy shit, he's out-polling Clinton in General Election match-ups despite unending repetition nationwide of the fact that he's a Democratic Socialist. The unicorn exists... a truly progressive candidate with ethics and principles who can win the presidency in the United States."
Once that final point was hit, the preferred candidate was obvious. It should have been obvious to everybody, and as far as most people on this board were concerned it damn well was. A complete no brainer. Unfortunately as the weeks dragged on it became abundantly clear that a significant portion of the Democratic party including a vocal minority on this board and a larger majority in the wider less politically aware general population has apparently forgotten why we have a Democratic Party at all. It is not so we can have our team to cheer for in elections for the sake of cheering for our team. Look, that guy is wearing our jersey! Go Blue Team! WOOOOO!
It is to get our policy goals implemented. It is to move the country left. It is to resist the destructive efforts of the GOP to drag the country ever further right.
Essentially everyone on this forum leading up to this election knew Single Payer was the holy grail. We have a candidate who can actually get elected who will champion Single Payer. He is running against a candidate that decided in order to fight him off she would sneeringly deride the idea of Single Payer as "free this and free that and free everything" in tones and framing that could have come straight out of the mouth of Sean Fucking Hannity... and tell scare stories about it resulting in people losing their health insurance. Completely discrediting the basic health insurance principle we have been fighting for here for years and throwing legitimacy to the GOP smear against all liberal social programs because it was expedient for her to do so. There is only one moral choice to be made between those two people for any liberal. and yet as soon as Clinton did it her camp lept up to support her out of, as far as I can tell, sheer unthinking reflex to support their team because it was their team.
Essentially everyone on this forum would have agreed going into this election that one of the primary goals of this group should ALWAYS be to grow the Democratic party. Then we get one candidate who is attracting new voters and next generation voters in vast numbers and one whose support comes entirely from within the existing ranks and who actually drives a segment of voters away. There is only one rational choue to be made between those two options but what do I see the reaction is from Clinton camp? "Good riddance to those voters! They weren't Democrats before so we don't need them to ever be! Who needs new voters in an election! Look at this latest poll we're gonna win the Primary! Woo! Neener neener neeener!". Cheering for their team because it's their team, all sight of the actual goal lost.
And you can repeat that story for issue, after issue, after issue. Supporting the center right candidate over the center left one (you heard me... CENTER RIGHT, CENTER LEFT.... as opposed to the GOP's universally extreme right stable of lunatics) because... ummm..... because that's my team!
Primaries are not for cheering for your team. They're for deciding what your team should be. That's the whole damn point.
Look, I never supported Kucinich. I thought he was a nice guy. I thought he had great positions on things. But he never broke more then like 3% national support and I'm a realist.
I never supported Warren. I thought she would make a great president, but there was no way I saw her being able to pull off a win in the general election. and I'm a realist.
I didn't support Sanders when he announced. I know the goal. But I'm not a unicorn hunter. I'm ENTIRELY able to compromise on the least worst, least right candidate among the viable when that is what we need to do. Always have. And until now that is what has always been required.
BUT WE DON'T NEED TO DO THAT THIS YEAR. SO WAKE THE FUCK UP AND LOOK AT WHAT YOU'RE DOING.
General Election Polling:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html
The only reason I ever saw for supporting a Clinton candidacy over Sanders.... the ONLY one... was electability. Pure pragmatism. There was never a single question that Sanders was the more liberal more progressive candidate with a superior stance on the issues and far superior credentials when it came to taking a stand on them. But as far as I was concerned electability pragmatism was enough because keeping the presidency out of GOP hands and keeping Supreme Court picks in the hands of sane people was a worthy enough goal even if nothing else was accomplished.
Look at the damn numbers. That reason is GONE. It is REVERSED. If that's your reason for supporting a candidate Sanders is your man now if you are paying any level of attention to data. We have a candidate who has the potential to fundamentally realign this nations political perceptions as far back to the left as Reagan dragged them to the right and who is MORE likely to win the general election than his far less progressive alternative choice for nominee.
What the hell else is there? What reason exists for not jumping on that campaign with a grin splitting your face from ear to ear??? That the GOP in Congress won't cooperate with Sanders? Who in their right damn mind thinks they'll cooperate with CLINTON? If you thought you saw obstruction when Obama got elected just you wait for a Clinton presidency. They'll obstruct Sanders. they'll obstruct Clinton. They'll obstruct zombie Ronald Reagan if someone digs him up and has him run with a D next to his name. That's all they do, that is no basis for making calls on who our candidate will be.
So what is it? What are you trying to accomplish with support for that campaign? WHAT IS YOUR GOAL? It has to be more than "Get Hillary elected because Hillary has to get elected because then my team wins. Job done. Yay! We're Winners!"
It has to be. Or you have well and truly lost the narrative... and you're steadily losing your country with it.... while you dance happy little jigs around primary poll numbers that show how you're "winning".
jcgoldie
(12,046 posts)There is a reason the people who make their living interpreting political polls like Nate Silver almost completely ignore it until the candidates are set.
Mufaddal
(1,021 posts)It's less useless when it comes to Hillary, because she is a known commodity.
gcomeau
(5,764 posts)And it shows a clear preference.
Mufaddal
(1,021 posts)I just think it's interesting that HRC supporters immediately jump on match-ups as a talking point (though you can basically guarantee that if the numbers were flipped, they'd be posting match-up results all over the place). Their criticism really only holds true to any reasonable extent when it comes to Bernie's results, not Hillary's, because the nation has known Hillary for a long time and more or less made up its mind. Hillary is not going to suddenly get more popular in a general than she already is in match-ups, and that's bad news.
gcomeau
(5,764 posts)gcomeau
(5,764 posts)SheenaR
(2,052 posts)It has been consistently shown that GE polling after February has very much been accurate over time.
I'm not saying it's your fault, I wish people would stop saying it though.
jcgoldie
(12,046 posts)I know its become common to criticize him when the numbers he pushes don't support your guy, but based on repeated past performance I'm going to continue assuming he knows more about polling than just about anyone until he gets an election wrong.
SheenaR
(2,052 posts)I truly can't find the article, but there was a comprehensive study done of GE polling over the years and the conclusion was that after February of the election year, the polling was considered far more valid and accurate.
Nate is not the only poll analyzer and has not been infallible in this primary cycle. He gets credit for going 50 for 50. Anyone paying attention could have gotten 47 without blinking.
gcomeau
(5,764 posts)...that if you have to choose between imperfect data and NO data, use the imperfect data. It's still data.
Anyone trying to claim Clinton is the more electable GE candidate has now become the camp rejecting actual data in favor of nothing... because they don't like what the data says.
jcgoldie
(12,046 posts)Silver would not be the 1st to say that, he's repeatedly said ignore general election polls during the primaries because they don't mean anything. See the difference here is you are making up something he didn't say to support your flawed argument, meanwhile I'm referring to what he actually has said.
gcomeau
(5,764 posts)You know he rates pollsters right? Has ranking on all of them from the most accurate to the most flawed an innacurate?
Does he throw out the worst polls? The most flawed data sources? No. BECAUSE THEY'RE STILL DATA. No matter how flawed they are taking them into account (with appropriate precautions to account for their accuracy) is superior to ignoring them.
You are confusing his statement that GE match-up polls still have very long error margins and should not be relied on to predict who will be President with a statement he is not making that such polls contain no information whatsoever and should be ignored for all purposes. What he is saying is those polls error margins are too large to predict who will win a GE so don't bet that whoever they say will win now will win in November because much can change between now and then.
But they still contain electability information. And that information is not good for Clinton. Anyone making decisions based on claimed electability has two options.
1. Make it based on the available data: Sanders.
2. I don't like what the available data says, I shall disregard it and base my decision on what I want to be true: Clinton.
Once again I'm going with his own words, you are trying to argue your way around them. It doesn't take 5 pages to blow up your premise that Bernie is more electable. If those match up polls don't mean anything then just about any other group of assumptions for who is more electable are just as valid.
If those match up polls don't mean anything
But they do. They will not tell you who will win the presidency in 8 months... which is what Silver is saying.
They DO tell you who has more support from the general electorate NOW. And Sanders is it. Clinton trails. Sanders has higher elect-ability NOW. Sanders is pulling support from more voters in the general electorate NOW. Sanders has a significantly superior starting point with the general electorate NOW.
That is what those polls say. And THAT is not meaningless.
So if you want to make an argument for Clinton being more electable you have to dig up some data that says how that is going to change in the next 8 months. Otherwise any claim to support her based on elect-ability concerns is complete bullshit.
(Please try to do better than "she just will because she's Hillary and he's Bernie" or something)
amborin
(16,631 posts)bookmarked
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)a single Hillary supporter to change their vote on DU. I suspect the exact same thing in reverse. There are a few undecideds on DU, but most people know very well who they'll vote for and are not going to change their minds. That's why DU is an echo chamber of both sides screaming the same things at each other over and over before the nominee is chosen, in every primary cycle.
I support Hillary not just because she's electable (GE polls aren't very reliable this early) but because she is a skilled, experienced politician who knows how to compromise when she needs to to get things done. She's an insider; I like that. She's a moderate; I like that. She has an achievable, feasible platform; I like that.
You support Bernie. That is entirely your choice. This is why we all have a vote.
gcomeau
(5,764 posts)I support Hillary not just because she's electable (GE polls aren't very reliable this early) but because she is a skilled, experienced politician who knows how to compromise when she needs to to get things done.
And while she's compromising away what "things" is it that you think she's going to accomplish that you're so eager for her to get done? Because in case you missed it the GOP doesn't give a crap about whether the Democratic president is willing to compromise or not. Obama offered them their own health insurance reform proposal and they called him a communist and filibustered it anyway. And that's not going to change.
So what part of her platform do you see as "achievable" if the composition of Congress doesn't shift significantly, and on what basis are you making that determination?
She's a moderate; I like that
She is only a "moderate" if you have been blinded to the massive rightward goal post shifting performed by the GOP over the last 3-4 decades. If you have been suckered into accepting that then like most of the rest of the country then you probably think her position on the political spectrum looks something like this:

(Hey, look, a bunch of those GOP guys are even more "moderate"
Reality, plotting their stated policy proposals against the full real world spectrum of political philosophies, looks like this:

THAT is the "moderate" you are supporting over that guy near the middle of the graph there.
If you think Clinton is a moderate you've already lost. The GOP has suckered you.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)A perfect example is the current firestorm burning up DU just today. Do you want your politicians to be like Bernie Sanders, who voted against the bank/auto bailout because it was against his principles? Or do you want your politicians to be like Hillary Clinton, who ate the shit sandwich and voted for an extremely unpopular bill to save the American economy? I prefer the latter.
Hillary is much more of an insider than Obama was when he got elected. It was one of the main reasons I supported her in 2008. Obama has gotten better at it as he went along. Hillary has served on cross-aisle committees with heavy hitters. I believe she will be able to find compromise from day 1 in office better than Obama could. She has great connections.
Hillary voted with Bernie 93% of the time during her time in the Senate. Comparing her to the GOP is ridiculous.
She is socially very liberal, strong on foreign policy (I agree with her that there are times when the US needs to get involved - IS is a perfect example), and fiscally on the conservative side. In other words, she matches up completely with my own political beliefs and is therefore an ideal candidate for me.
Again, we obviously disagree. But your arguments don't move me. We will each just have to cast our vote.
gcomeau
(5,764 posts)A perfect example is the current firestorm burning up DU just today. Do you want your politicians to be like Bernie Sanders, who voted against the bank/auto bailout because it was against his principles?
That is a dishonest frame. He voted for it in isolation, he only voted against it when it was bundled to the bank bailout and he wanted it broken back out and passed on its own merits. Just saying he "voted against the auto bailout" is like saying someone who voted against medical experimentation on baby pandas voted against liking kittens and puppies because someone attached an amendment that says "also we like kittens and puppies" to the baby panda medical experimentation bill. When that person has voted for kittens and puppies all the rest of their political career.
Do I want a politician who will fight against that kind of crap? YES. Why don't you?
Do I want a politician who thinks it's ok to smear the most progressive Senator in the United States with this kind of bullshit as long as she gains some personal advantage out of it? NO. Why do you?
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)I wouldn't say dishonest because I think that is insulting.
Bernie, demonstrably, did NOT vote for TARP, which bailed out the banks and the auto industry. He supported an isolated bill, which failed to pass, and then afterwards voted against the bill that did eventually bail out the banks and the auto industry. My saying that is true and my not adding the part about how he voted for an isolated bill that failed does not make my point false.
Anyway, I was in favour of the bank bailout. The economy would have collapsed without it. It was extremely unpopular at the time because people were so angry about the financial crisis. But anger doesn't change the reality that we would be far worse off economically if the bailout hadn't happened.
I'm not smearing Bernie with anything. He didn't vote for the combined bill. That's not a smear, that's a fact. To me, it points to a rigid ideologue who would not be able to make the compromises necessary to hold the office of the Presidency and get anything done. To you, clearly, it does not. Those are opinions. And we can support those opinions with our vote.
gcomeau
(5,764 posts)Is it Clinton's intention to convince Michigan voters that Bernie opposed bailing them out?
Yes or no? You know the answer as well as I do. This framing is intended to deceive. To distort the truth. That is dishonest any way you want to slice it.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Which was that Bernie DID NOT VOTE for the bill which bailed out the auto industry. The actual bill, not the one that failed. The one that passed. He did not vote for that bill. How on earth is that dishonest?
gcomeau
(5,764 posts)She has a reason for picking that frame and conveying only that specific information free the surrounding contest. She has a message that is intended to convey. A result that is intended to achieve. And that is to send the message that Bernie wasn't on their side and she was.
You know it. I know it.
Which. Is. Dishonest.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)gcomeau
(5,764 posts)it is what I say when I disagree with everything someone has said and have no other polite way to end the conversation. I don't like to just disappear.
We disagree. It's ok. That's what primaries are for. We will just have to see who wins the nomination, and I hope we'll both be voting for the Democratic nominee in November. I know I will.
Peace.
We disagree. It's ok. That's what primaries are for.
A clearer illustration of my thesis could not be made. The primaries are not a sporting event, they are not for competing against each other. That will occur, but it is not what the primaries are *for*.
And anyone hoping people will be voting for the eventual Democratic nominee would, I think, want to pick the nominee the most people in the general population actually want to vote for rather than the one driving people out of the party while her supporters yell good riddance at them while celebrating their anticipated primary victory.
Hillary voted with Bernie 93% of the time during her time in the Senate. Comparing her to the GOP is ridiculous.
The only way I "compared her to the GOP" was to post the graph. The graph shows she is clearly far removed from them on social issues (although not as far as Sanders. And she is left of them economically... but not by a hell of a lot.
Do please provide any concrete explanation for any objection to that analysis.
As for Senate votes, of course they voted together most of the time. By the time you get to a vote your choices have been narrowed to two options... for or against. Everyone anywhere to the left side of the GOP is going to tend to vote the same way on most things at that point.
But now they're running for President. Their choices are not just for or against some piece of legislation someone else has put in front of them they get to craft their own desired complete set of policy proposals. That is where those proposals fall. Deal with it. Clinton is nowhere near left economically. She's just less rightward than the GOP.
jcgoldie
(12,046 posts)The effort to paint Clinton to the right of her record has been going on for months among Sanders supporters on DU but this is the 1st time I've heard her liberal voting record in the Senate disparaged because you only get two choices... for and against... congratulations.
gcomeau
(5,764 posts)I simply pointed out the mind numbingly obvious reason why voting records almost universally show large degrees of agreement between everyone on one side of the political aisle. You are loking at a binary for/against data set that provides zero nuance on how strongly for or against some was or even why they were for or against.
Their policy proposals on the other hand are specifically crafted by them to represent EXACTLY what they stand for. And that is where those policy proposals fall on the spectrum. If you are having difficulty processing that reality perhaps you should take a step back and ask yourself why.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)They refused to go along with GOP plans to weaken labor in the 2008 bailout. They did not compromise to get a bailout.
Had the Democrats not stood on principle, there would have been a bailout in 2008.
They did the right thing. But that is no less holding to principle than Sanders did subsequently.
Carolina
(6,960 posts)What has she done?
She rode Bill's coat tails to power. He had the intellect (Georgetown Univ, Rhodes Scholar, Yale Law), charisma, gift of gab and natural ability to connect with people. She was smart, too (Wellesley, Yale Law) like many, many woman from Seven Sister/Ivy League schools. After law school, she went to DC to work on the Nixon impeachment committee, but her stint there did not last long because, among other reasons, she did not pass the DC bar. She tells the story that she went to work for the Children's Defense Fund (CDF) founded by Marian Wright Edelman as evidence of her advocacy for children and that's true... 30 years ago. But recall that Marians husband, Peter Edelman who became Bill Clintons Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services, resigned in protest over the 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act better known as Welfare Reform because of the dire effects it would have on the poor, especially women and children. Has anyone heard from the Edelmans yet in this 2016 cycle?
After leaving DC, what did HRC do? She ran off to Arkansas! Yes, this dynamo of feminism whom so many women from my generation say could have done anything, been anything on her own
did not go back to her native Chicago, did not go back to New England (MA, CT) where she was educated. No, she ran off to Arkansas. She chased after Bill because she recognized his rising star. He had the talent to go along with the intellect. He had held leadership positions nearly all his life: high school (Boys State) and college (class president for 2 years, etc.). He became Governor, chaired the National Governors Association and finally became POTUS. It was only through him that she was introduced to the nation and even then, it was rocky because of her abrasive remarks about baking cookies.
When she ran for POTUS in 2008, she cited her 20 years of experience. Really? First Lady of AK for 12 years and FLOTUS for 8 years. Oh, and she was a corporate lawyer at the Rose Law Firm where her client was Walmart that champion of women and children and where she relied heavily on the counsel of Vince Foster.
She could never have carpet bagged her way to the NY Senate seat had she not been FLOTUS. And once in the Senate, what did she DO? What legislation or amendments to legislation illustrate her initiative or activism on behalf of women and children. The aye votes for IWR, the Patriot Act and Bush's Bankruptcy bill sure were a big help to us all.
Then there was her abysmal management and nasty conduct during the 2008 primary campaign. She had the money, she had the name, she was entitled, she was "in it to win it" and so arrogant that she claimed it would be over by Super Tuesday. But when it wasn't and she was losing, she resorted to the gutter. She praised McCain and derided Obama as someone who only gave pretty speeches. And when the Party urged her to bow out gracefully, she said that she was going to stay in the race through the CA primary because "you never know... remember Bobby Kennedy..." Her insinuation (a veiled wish?) that Obama might be assassinated like RFK was beyond classless and tasteless. It was evil (google Keith Olbermann on that atrocity). And when she finally, gracelessly bowed out, she did so on condition that the Obama organization and DNC pay off her campaign debt. Some management skills, just like her Wall Street benefactors who f--- things up, then expect others to pay for the disaster created.
Then BHO named her as SOS. I was appalled when he did so, but I think he'd been inspired by Lincoln's team of rivals and wanted to keep her busy and away. In so doing, she couldn't be a quasi-backbencher sniping at him. Yet, in the end, as SOS, she was also terrible. Honduras, Libya and Syria are a mess. But HRC, the consummate pro-MIC corporatist, never saw a war she didn't like. And last I checked, war is not good for women, children or men!
Hillary is nothing, and would have been nothing, without powerful men around or behind her. Her experience is largely derived from having married Bill; and her judgment when she has wielded power has been awful.
So now she's back to fulfill her ambition ONLY. Her baggage is the Clinton legacy (the two for one, the 8 years of experience): the DLC, NAFTA, Telecommunications Bill of 1996, Welfare Reform (not), and overturning Glass-Steagall. She and Bill kept Alan Greenspan at the Fed, placed the then Mr. Goldman Sucks himself Robert Reuben as head of Treasury and hired as financial advisor that abominable Wall Streeter Larry Summers (who lost a $billion from Harvard's endowment!).

But we, the people (the little people, lots of women), reaped the whirlwind of that 1999 Commodities Modernization Act which ended Glass-Steagall and for which every repuke in the Senate voted AYE while every Dem -- save one -- voted NAY. Bill signed it into law anyway, paying no heed to the canary-in-the-mine Dems who said that this dastardly new law would lead to disaster 10 years hence. Sure enough it did, harming women and families throughout the land. And Wall Street, Hillary's BFF, continues to be such a benefactor for women!
This is HRC's history, so please tell me, what she has DONE that is positive or constructive? What is this record she always harkens back to in her me, me, me, mine, mine, mine debate responses? She's in it for herself, she plays sexist gender politics, she lies about her alleged record, she changes her mind with the political winds, she panders, she pads her pockets, and she is a triangulator to her core.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)gcomeau
(5,764 posts)...completely forget why they're doing something in the frenzy of cheering for a win for the sake of a win.
Faux pas
(16,529 posts)pat_k
(13,838 posts)1. Sure, if he wins the nomination, Bernie will need hard work from a lot of people "out here" to bring about major change -- working to win back Congress, vote out spineless dems, lobby Reps and Senators to get on board. Fortunately, his campaign is inspiring people to join the fray, and creating an activist base willing to fight those fights.
2. Win or lose the nomination, every dollar Bernie raises, every person inspired to play an active part in the campaign, every delegate won, helps disprove the notion that universal health care, billionaires tax, and so on, are "toxic" topics that democrats must avoid at all costs.
Inside the beltway, too many of them are certain that raising "socialist" ideas will bring the wrath of... well someone.. down on them. Bernie's campaign is showing them that what "comes down" is masses of money and a well-spring of energetic support. Seeing the real consequences of raising "socialist" ideas can help put some spine back into them... Well, perhaps not actual spine, perhaps just enlightened self-interest (Maybe I could rally some support and raise more money for reelection if I were bolder? Hmmm.)
gcomeau
(5,764 posts)I think I somehow lost track of which OP is was responding to. Opps.
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