2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary's a regional candidate who appeals to the Evangelical South. Sanders wins everywhere else!
Hillary is winning in the Evangelical South states. These 13 states compose one of the most anti-Progressive regions in the US (the Evangelical South is the region that is least supportive of reproductive health liberties, collective bargaining rights, GLBT equality, etc.). Hillary has so far put together a clean sweep of these states because the Clintons rose to power in the Evangelical South, which is ideologically inclined against the Progressive message of Sanders.
BUT SANDERS HAS WON 9 OUT OF 12 STATES IN THE REST OF AMERICA!
Even if Hillary is preferred in the 13 Evangelical South states, Hillary is weaker than dishwater outside of the Evangelical South. What evidence is there that Hillary has the sort of appeal beyond the Evangelical South that gives her any hope of winning a general election?
This is a problem we need to discuss before we consider her as a nominee.
Look at the data behind Sanders' 9 generally big wins versus Clinton's 3 narrow wins outside the Evangelical South:
Iowa - Clinton won by 0.3% in a dirty, close race (closest in Iowa's history)
New Hampshire - Sanders won by a wide 22.4% margin
Nevada - Clinton won by 5.3% in a narrower win than her win over Obama in 2008
Colorado - Sanders won by a wide 18.5% margin
Massachusetts - Clinton won dirty by a very narrow 1.4% margin
Minnesota - Sanders won by a wide 23.2% margin
Oklahoma - Sanders won by a wide 10.4% margin
Vermont - Sanders won by a wide 72.5% margin
Kansas - Sanders won by a wide 35.4% margin
Nebraska - Sanders won by a wide 14.2% margin
Maine - Sanders won by a wide 28.8% margin
Michigan - Sanders won by a narrow 2% margin
In a year when the Republican race is setting turnout records, all of Hillary's wins have come in states where Democratic turnout is way down.
In contrast, Sanders has won setting turnout records in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska (which had a huge turnout despite switching from a primary in 2008 to a caucus in 2016), Maine, and Michigan.
How many states does Hillary have to lose outside of the Evangelical South and how many races she can win with anemic turnout before we can have an adult discussion about the implications of these results for her electability prospects?
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)Lorien
(31,935 posts)angstlessk
(11,862 posts)How has the republicans abroad vote?
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Vote2016
(1,198 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)By April 9, Sanders should be close in delegate count, and if Sanders has the momentum at that time, he should pass her on (or before) June 6.
mhatrw
(10,786 posts)RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)Amen!
Can I get a witness?
Lorien
(31,935 posts)Every State HRC has will be taken by a Republican in the general. No HRC supporter has explained how she'll get around that.
Downwinder
(12,869 posts)HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)None of her Southern Firewall states will go her way in November.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)TTUBatfan2008
(3,623 posts)...how Arkansas goes in the general election if/when Hillary is the nominee. The Clintons have deep ties there of course, but they also have a lot of baggage and that state is generally very conservative. I tend to think it would be a single digit loss.
marions ghost
(19,841 posts)and especially against Trump. South is big for tRump.
I'm down South.
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)There's no substance. It's vote for me because I read the bible every day.
marions ghost
(19,841 posts)I can't explain her appeal in the South any other way.
"Christian Identity Candidate" -- yep.
Good snow job, Hillary.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)royalty as the former first lady to Bill Clinton; 3. She's not very progressive and that's a good match for the not-very-progressive South.
I'm not one to question other people's religious beliefs so I take Hillary 100% at her word, but I suspect that she professes her sincerely held religious beliefs more during a 30 minute stump speech in Mississippi that she expresses those same beliefs over the course of a year's worth of conversations with her closest confidant, Huma Abedin.
I totally and completely accept that Hillary's beliefs are genuine (more credit than she gave Obama in 2008), but I don't think she wears those beliefs on her sleeve to the same extent when she's not making stump speeches in front of church-going crowds.
I like that Sanders' stump speeches (on the topic of religion or otherwise) are basically the same issues he'd be discussing with you if you got the seat next to him on a long flight and engaged him in a real conversation.
marions ghost
(19,841 posts)who work their personal religious affiliations in order to get elected. I don't think Jesus is smiling on Hillary or anyone else doing it.
But she comes from the school of "whatever it takes" so I'm not surprised.
Right, the conservatism of the South is also a factor.
Zorra
(27,670 posts)Vote2016
(1,198 posts)marions ghost
(19,841 posts)thx for the list