HRC Campaign Manager "Mook warns of defeat in Ohio, Illinois, Mo., 'outspent, outraised' by Sanders"

[Attorney in Texas]

link; excerpt:

Hillary Clinton's campaign manager, citing Sen. Bernie Sanders' surprise victory in Michigan this week after outspending the Democratic front-runner, is warning supporters that it could happen again Tuesday in Ohio, Missouri and Illinois.

"Bernie outraised us by $12 million in February, then outspent us on TV in Michigan," which the Vermont senator won, Robby Mook emailed supporters.... Mook has reason to be concerned. A new scientific prediction of the race, produced by the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, shows Clinton losing Illinois and Ohio by a hair. A Sanders win would be huge news and give him more momentum, though it would remain difficult for him to catch Clinton in delegates.

"Based on the race and region model, we can predict that Hillary Clinton will win three states and Bernie Sanders will win two states on March 15. Clinton is predicted to receive between 65 percent and 67 percent of the vote in North Carolina, between 64 percent and 66 percent of the vote in Florida, between 52 percent and 54 percent of the vote in Illinois, between 46 percent and 48 percent of the vote in Ohio and between 45 percent and 47 percent of the vote in Missouri," said the report from Alan I. Abramowitz, a senior columnist with the Center's Larry Sabato Crystal Ball.

I'm sure that this is Robby Mook playing the expectations game, but it is an interestingly candid acknowledgement.

Here's a link to the University of Virginia Center for Politics analysis showing Illinois, Ohio, and Missouri close but with Sanders slightly ahead!

[Kaleva]

1. Which means Bernie will fall further behind in the pledged delegate count.

[Vote2016]

2. The primary calendar doesn't go "full Bernie" until March 21 when Hillary begins a 0 for 9 stretch

[noiretextatique]

3. +1000

Some are hoping he drops out before then.

[dana_b]

44. Lol...

he and we are in it until the convention floor

[noiretextatique]

58. hell yes!

In it to win it. Hillary stepped on some do yesterday. Some gay voters are furious.

[Godhumor]

4. You really think Arizona is going to go Bernie?

Hmm.

[DCBob]

7. Texas is a good indicator of what will happen in Arizona.

[ibegurpard]

18. lol

Texas and Arizona are nothing alike. Texas is the South. Arizona is the West.
Arizona has more in common with Nevada.

[riversedge]

21. Ok: then Nevada is a good indicator of what will happen in AZ

[DCBob]

22. LOL.. beat me to it!

[riversedge]

28. The Force is with me today also

[Lizzie Poppet]

26. Does that graphic mean a hyperspeed jump to the right?

'Coz I'd totally buy that...

[DCBob]

27. LOL.. have you ever been to Lubbock or Amarillo or El Paso or Fort Worth?

I worked in west Texas for awhile and those areas are nothing like the "south".. MS, AR, LA, GA, AL, etc.

[AgadorSparticus]

59. Clearly, you are not from TX or have been there. TX is TX. It is not the south or the west.

It is the only state that was its own republic.

[Ken Burch]

56. Arizona went for Jesse in '88, IIRC.

So it's possible.

[DCBob]

6. Here are the next 14 contests..

Arizona, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming, New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island.

Which ones will Bernie win big and get large delegate hauls? I only see Washington state as a potential big gain for Bernie. The rest are small gains or splits or Hillary wins. In fact some are going to go big for Hillary... eg. MD, PA, DE and probably NY.

Bernie needs to win big because he be will be trailing by over 300 delegates going into this stretch. Its actually likely he will lose more ground by the end of this group of states.

[riversedge]

29. Unfortuately..

WI might fall to Bernie. Crap.

[DCBob]

34. Yeah, WI does appear to be a Bernie state but I dont think hugely.

As long as Hillary can keep from losing any blowouts there is no chance for Bernie to close the gap.

[Garrett78]

37. I bet Clinton wins a majority of the delegates from those 14 contests.

The big states generally favor her. It's primarily small states that favor Sanders (Washington and Wisconsin are 2 exceptions).

[Hortensis]

20. You do realize that's is literally 0% possible, right?

[morningfog]

24. It is not 0% possible. Unless you ignore what "% possible" means.

[Vote2016]

40. Other than Arizona (which looks close) I see Hillary losing like dominoes falling

[Garrett78]

45. 5 caucuses and 3 primaries between March 22 and April 9

How much ground do you expect Sanders to gain via those 8 contests?

[Vote2016]

57. The question is not how many delegates Sanders wins in those 8 states; the question is how many

delegates does he win in last part of the primary due to the momentum built during that 7 or 8 for 8 winning streak.

[Garrett78]

63. Well, how much momentum may depend on how much ground he gains.

But if the states he wins aren't terribly representative of the states that follow, it won't make much difference. Anyway, I would be surprised if he gains a whole lot of ground on Clinton over the course of those 8 contests. Winning 80 more delegates than Clinton, spread out over those 8 contests, may be the best he can hope for. If she's up by 350+ heading into those contests, 80 is merely a dent in Clinton's lead.

[Betty Karlson]

62. Hence Daily Kos forbidding anything but praise after March 15th?

Oh those party hecks. Almost as bad as the GOP ones.

[bobbobbins01]

5. I'm going to call it:

Florida: Hilary
Illinois: Bernie
Missouri: Bernie
NC: Bernie
Ohio: Bernie

When he just leans Clinton, he crushes her. And polls that are close will favor burnie a well. The only ads that worry me are the safe ones.Winnino either of those wold Hube.

[Ferd Berfel]

16. Hopping you're correct

[bobbobbins01]

36. Just wanted to comment on the spelling/grammar in my last post.

I swear I'm not drunk! My keyboard has been acting fishy for weeks, I think its finally on its last legs(I'm on my cordless one now).

[Kalidurga]

52. LOL

I was going to check on a German translator.

[Uglystick]

41. After Wednesday night, and tonight.

It's a Bernie sweep.

[Recursion]

46. I think she holds NC

IL is going to be a squeaker whatever way it goes.

MO is not just going to be Sanders it's going to be Sanders by a pretty wide margin, and that's going to be the story of the day.

[Garrett78]

47. NC and IL would be pretty shocking.

OH and MO I can believe. Of course, with proportional allocation, Clinton will likely gain quite a bit of ground on Tuesday.

[PyaarRevolution]

8. When is Oregon coming?

I would argue it's the Vermont of the West and will shut out Hillary, that she will get less than 15%. I mean Oregon has a Vegan mall for crying out loud!!!

[Lizzie Poppet]

23. May 17th.

I expect us to break heavily for Bernie, too.

[Matariki]

9. Ah, great reminder

Time to send Sanders another $50.

[brooklynite]

10. A fundraising email? Seriously?

Fundraising emails are always hyperbolic. I'm on the private email list that the big donors get; that's not the message we're receiving.

[Fumesucker]

12. Exactly, everyone knows Hillary tells one audience one thing and another audience something else

It's one of her less endearing characteristics and the reason we are as likely to see her transcripts as Romney's tax returns.

[cherokeeprogressive]

17. I love it when you do that.

[ibegurpard]

19. I know

He just can't help himself

[morningfog]

39. It's so cute isn't it?

[JonLeibowitz]

51. LOL! Incredibly amusing.

[artislife]

60. What will happen when he realizes that all those big

dinners and donations will no longer hold influence or prestige?

[morningfog]

25. What message were you receiving prior to Michigan, Mr. deep pockets?

[brooklynite]

38. I'll acknowledge that the Michigan loss was unexpected by everybody...

...and we'll know on Tuesday if that's a trend or an anomaly, won't we?

[Cheese Sandwich]

11. They are just trying to control expectations. Hillary is favored in all these states by big margins.

[revbones]

33. And get Maddi's dollar... to make it look like she has more small donors... nt

[AzDar]

13. Clintonian bullshit... She is still favored in all these states. They want to be able to paint her

as 'The Comeback Kid' just by meeting expectations... There is no momentum; she's the default candidate.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

48. You see emails like that in every campaign. Danger, danger!

[jeepers]

14. She is bluffing

Hillary needs 7 solid victories in northern states to come even with Bernie

Team Hillary are smart people they know that her southern delegate count is as good as confederate money when it comes to winning electoral votes in the GE and they know that the supers won't line up behind her until she shows the ability to win the northern vote. Lot of pretend and a lot of bluffing going on.

[MelungeonWoman]

15. Happy to report that my conservative brother in Ohio

Will be voting the same as me for the first time ever! He wants to vote for Bernie because the R's all suck and he doesn't want Hillary to win. I didn't have the heart to tell him that Bernie does better than Hillary against all of them! Yay for Republicans who get all their news from the TV!

[Attorney in Texas]

31. lol

[Octafish]

30. How can this be?

I just read somewhere that the polls indicated a 99.9 percent probability of inevitability of victory or something like when Captain Kirk fries the demented satellite with contradictory information:

[WillyT]

32. HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!!

[Jarqui]

35. This is an important quote and reinforces findings I've made

"Leaving these important caveats aside, our results suggest that Bernie Sanders is likely to present a strong challenge to Hillary Clinton in the remaining Democratic primaries. Clinton has had a big advantage in the nomination race thus far because so many of the contests have been in the South. After next Tuesday, however, there will be no more primaries in the South. Based on the results presented here, she will be favored over Sanders only in non-southern states in which the nonwhite share of the Democratic primary electorate is at least 40 percent. The key question may be whether the huge delegate lead she has built up by winning southern primaries by landslide margins will be enough to sustain her through the rest of the primary season."

The primary is going to change after the 15th. Sabato's prediction works out to Clinton gaining around 96 delegates on Mar 15th - which I would have guessed is about the best Sanders could do. According to Sabato, Sanders could do better because Sabato is presenting the mean of his results. So that surprises me a little.

The one criticism I have with Sabato's approach is his collective non-white vote. I think the black vote broken out, a non-white balance and the white vote might improve the accuracy of his approach.

He takes into account regional relationships so Bernie doing better with blacks in the north presumably would get picked up.

But the most important part is another opinion that the race is going to change after March 15th in Bernie's favor to the extent Sabato is wondering if Hillary's lead will hold up.

Hillary's status is that she's still the clear favorite. But the description may have slipped from "inevitable" to "electable in the primary?" according to Sabato.

[Vote2016]

43. Excellent quote

[Garrett78]

49. None of the 5 March 15 primaries are in the Deep South

Neither Florida nor North Carolina are part of that region that I think most consider to be the Deep South. So, why isn't Sanders expected to gain ground on Tuesday? I suspect Clinton will do quite well in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Arizona, New Mexico, Hawaii, California, DC, and Puerto Rico.

And I'll be quite surprised if Clinton only gains 96 delegates on Tuesday.

[Jarqui]

55. I think Sabato saw parallels in North Carolina's demographics

When you look at Hillary winning all the states that surround it - some of them by hefty margins and how she's out performed the polls in that region and how well she's polling in those states presently - that's how they got included with the South. A hunk of it is the black vote and the more south one seems to go, the stronger the black vote seems to go to Clinton.

Florida has less of a black vote but a lot of seniors. Those are Clintons two best constituencies.

I was shocked by the 96 delegates too. To me, that's a dream at the outer edge of the best case outcome. Things are so crazy with polls and results, who knows fro sure?

[Garrett78]

64. Yes. Because it's more about demographics than region.

As I wrote about here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511460282

It's not as if Sanders isn't strong in a very "red" region of the country (MT, ID, UT, WY, etc.). The reddest of red, in fact.

[jfern]

42. They said Nevada was 80% white, so I wouldn't trust anything they say

[sadoldgirl]

50. I don't trust any of that.

This is an attempt to get more money to the
HRC campaign, which may need cash badly.

[noretreatnosurrender]

53. Take everything with a grain of salt

I wouldn't believe anything they said. Do the opposite and we'll probably succeed.

[SheilaT]

54. Wasn't Michigan supposed to be at least 60% Clinton?

And DON'T try to pull the open primary bullshit. EVERY poll showed her far ahead, and what happened?

I am certainly not predicting a Sanders win in Safe Florida, but I think the Clinton people are absolutely counting their chickens well ahead of the eggs hatching.

[krawhitham]

61. Bernie picked up 4 votes in Ohio yesterday

Me
Spouse
Kid
Mother

[Cali_Democrat]

65. Hillary won all five states. nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

66. Hee hee hee

These are great threads to read after the fact!

[Gothmog]

67. It appears that Sanders did outspend Clinton in several of these states

Sanders did outspend Clinton in the March 15 primaries http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/sanders-narrowly-outspends-clinton-ads-march-15-states-n538836

Bernie Sanders has outspent Hillary Clinton in advertisements in the March 15 primary states, $6.3 million to $5.3 million overall, including in Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio, according to ad-spending data from SMG Delta.

Clinton, meanwhile, has outspent Sanders in Florida and Illinois.

I admit that I am impressed by the Sanders fundraising efforts but I am glad that Clinton kept the margins close enough to win. In 2012, President Obama was outspent by the GOP and Romney but still won.