Bernie Sanders May Be In Position To Pull Off 2 More Big Upsets Against Hillary Clinton - BI

[WillyT]

Bernie Sanders may be in position to pull off 2 more big upsets against Hillary Clinton
Allan Smith - BusinessInsider
3/15/16


A Bernie Sanders campaign rally in Chicago, Illinois.
Scott Olson/Getty Images

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One week ago, Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders pulled off a seemingly impossible victory over frontrunner Hillary Clinton. He's now potentially in position to pull off more than one such upset on Tuesday.

Polling in Ohio showed that Clinton held a lead as great as 30 points just before the Michigan primary, while she was shown to have a more than 40 point lead in Illinois in another poll. But after the shocking Michigan results, where polling had faltered to such a catastrophic degree, Clinton's Ohio edge has narrowed to within 10 points, while Sanders even managed to pull ahead of Clinton in one Illinois poll.

Both states vote Tuesday, in addition to Florida, North Carolina, and Missouri. Clinton has maintained a large advantage in the prior two, while Sanders was shown to have a slight edge in the latter.

Michael Burton, a political science professor at Ohio University and a former assistant to the chief of staff for Vice President Al Gore, told Business Insider that the Michigan and Ohio electorates are fairly similar. (And the same can be said of Illinois.) "Michigan was kind of like the 1987 stock market crash," Burton said. "For all the distinctions that people inside Ohio like to make from Michigan, they don't look that different."

Clinton's prior support of trade deals, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, may continue to hurt her along the Rust Belt as Sanders has campaigned increasingly hard on trade issues. In Michigan, where many trade-based and manufacturing jobs were lost since the passing of NAFTA in the 1990s, trade issues clearly played a role in the race.

"If you look at where some of the massive failings <of polling> have taken place, they've happened in swing states," Burton continued, adding that many Ohio voters he's spoken with are "rejuvenated" on Sanders after his Michigan upset.

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Link: http://www.businessinsider.com/michigan-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-ohio-illinois-2016-3

[Kalidurga]

1. Not too long ago I was thinking it was going to be close in all the states except Florida...

Now I think he is good for two, maybe three and it will be close in Florida. I think being close in Florida is going to be the most devastating thing to Hillary's campaign.

[vdogg]

7. Those who've already voted in Florida

Broke for Hillary by a 3 to 1 margin. Florida will not be close.

[Ken Burch]

9. And that information comes from where?

They aren't supposed to announce early voting results before the polls close, IIRC.

[vdogg]

11. Here

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/3/12/1500477/-Florida-early-vote-71-29-for-Clinton-Mason-Dixon.
This is unofficial based on those polled who've said they already voted. Early voting has been going on for weeks.

[Ken Burch]

12. remember that we've seen significant polling discrepancies.

If this only polled people with landlines, for example, it would be skewed in HRC's favor.

Not saying she couldn't be leading in early voting, but three-to-one seems unlikely.

[vdogg]

13. Lots of old people and minorities, very few young people.

Of course the poll can be off but Hillary has consistently hit 80-20 to 70-30 with the demographics mentioned this year. If it's off, it's not off by that much.

[Howler]

2. Please!!!

Let it be so.

[Vincardog]

6. Yes

[Howler]

8. :)

[Punkingal]

3. To quote Captain Picard, "Make it so."

[Le Taz Hot]

4. Early reports are that Ohio

is having a large voter turnout and we all know what that means.

That is if the Bill Clinton would get the fuck out of the way and just let people vote.

[GreatGazoo]

5. we need a GOOTFWBCSICV effort

( get out of the way Bill Clinton so I can vote )

[Faux pas]

10. BERNIE BERNIE BERNIE

[Cal Carpenter]

14. Warning: Anecdote to follow

Just had a meeting with a sales rep from Chicagoland - one I've never met before. He sorta congratulated us on Bernie's win in Michigan (before even confirming whether or not we were supporters, ha). He voted early for Bernie knowing he'd be on a sales trip today. He says almost everyone he knows who votes is voting for Bernie today - friends, family, coworkers, etc. He is probably late 20s or so but in his business he is likely surrounded by a wide range of people.

So there's that.

I know, cool story, bro

[jillan]

15. Reports from Chicago are of very high turnout!

[JackRiddler]

16. He's winning Ohio and Illinois. Florida and NC are the upsets.