2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWOW !!! - Ladies And Gentlemen... Bill Curry - Salon
Can Hillary stay in the race? If she loses Ohio and Missouri, Clintons case becomes very, very tenuousImagine if somone wins the last 10 primaries, leads every general election poll, then gets denied by superdelegates
Bill Curry - Salon
Tuesday, Mar 15, 2016 09:25 AM PDT
Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton (Credit: AP)
No one knows how these races will end. Even polls that persist in underestimating Bernie Sanders show Missouri and Illinois near dead heats and Sanders closing fast in Ohio. Should he win the Land of Lincoln and the Show Me State and exceed expectations in Ohio, itll be his second stunning upset in eight days. It turns out Hillarys one stronghold other than K Street is the Old Confederacy. The last two of its 11 states also vote today. Ahead are contests in 24 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Guam. With the possible exception of Puerto Rico, she doesnt hold a commanding lead in a single one. Many resemble states Bernie won going away.
Democracy isnt algebra. Elections arent mere algorithms. A poll tells you more about the person who writes its questions than the few hundred who answer them or the millions who dont. Polls have short shelf lives because people change their minds; gradually about issues, overnight about other people. Pollsters do message, not policy. They know were angry but havent a clue why. Heres a hint: One party denies the reality of climate change, the futility of modern warfare and the humanity of millions of our fellow citizens. Neither will admit that our democracy is dying and taking our middle class with it. We need help making this choice, not predictions as to the choice were about to make.
While were on the subject of lifes mutability, a word about party rules: The first thing to know about them is that like Captain Jack Sparrows pirates code, theyre more like what youd call guidelines than actual rules. This is perfectly legal and sometimes even fair. All conventions are gaveled open by temporary chairs under temporary rules because no convention can bind the next one any more than one Congress can bind the next.
So no current poll can tell you how many delegates each candidate will have and no current rule can tell you for sure what those delegates can or will do. Delegates elected in primaries or caucuses will surely vote as pledged. If one candidate has pledged delegates comprising more than 50 percent of all delegates, that should end the discussion and the process. If not, all bets are off.
More: http://www.salon.com/2016/03/15/can_hillary_stay_in_the_race_if_she_loses_ohio_and_missouri_clintons_case_becomes_very_very_tenuous/
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)it is starting to look like Sanders will do well tonight given present trends.
kristopher
(29,798 posts)dcbuckeye
(83 posts)It's all about delegates now. Not wins and losses in big states. Obama lost all of the big states in 2008. Superdelegates won't abandon HRC for losing a string of small primaries and caucuses coming up.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,988 posts)Gore1FL
(21,643 posts)If they did, the party would explode on national television. The pledged delegate count is much closer. There is opportunity for it to close and reverse.
In the meantime, it is very important that we cast and count votes.
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)New York? California? I guess I missed the news that those once great states had suffered a huge drop in their populations.
hedda_foil
(16,466 posts)jeepers
(314 posts)I doubt that they are going to be impressed enough by Hillarys confederate money, her squeakers in NV Mass and in Iowa or her coming head to head losses against Sanders to hand her the nomination.
SoapBox
(18,791 posts)To go against the will of voting Americans, all in the name of trying to support the Entrenched Elite Third Way Establishment.
jalan48
(14,157 posts)Would it be possible that he could be denied the party nomination (even if he wins the popular vote and leads in pledged delegates) simply because Super Delegates proclaim that 'He's not a real Democrat'?
Gore1FL
(21,643 posts)jalan48
(14,157 posts)You'll have Neo-Fascist Trump on the other side scaring Democrats into submission.
Gore1FL
(21,643 posts)It would be ugly. People would stay home.
jalan48
(14,157 posts)It's the old stick and carrot approach to ruling.
LiberalLovinLug
(14,320 posts)It would be downright embarrassing for her to lose in the same way, and be out in this year when the other side is running bafoons plus knowing at her age this is probably her last chance. If the worst happens, and Superdelegates, urged on behind the scenes by Debbie Downer, anoint The Chosen One over the winner of the popular vote, it will be because Hillary will take the chance on being slightly more palatable overall than The Don to independent voters.
She has already abandoned the progressive wing of the Dem party, and is relying on the forsaken Goldwater old school Republican voters to shore up her vote. So its not much of a stretch to think she'd go "all in" on this def con move. And she may just pull that off if she ramps up the anti-Muslim, pro-Reagan, Socialist scaring, Bible thumping spiel plus whatever other tricks Debbie and her have up their sleeves "just in case".
MisterP
(23,730 posts)or two with "but he's NOT A DEMOCRAT" reality will spin on its axis and they can have the pure, vicarious GLEE of winning over some Enemy
meanwhile out in meatspace everyone will be "who gives a crap?"
senz
(11,945 posts)When they move from group meme to group meme, one begins to lose the possibility of ever respecting them as people. Not that they care.
If the Hill campaign tries that, then they should expect lawsuits and outrageously negative P.R. for their candidate. She will be universally loathed. If they succeed in stealing the nomination that way, they should prepare for a resounding loss in the GE.
erlewyne
(1,115 posts)WillyT I did not realize this was your thread till after I read it!
Give those pundits hell!
Should have realized it was you ...
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)Uncle Joe
(59,676 posts)Thanks for the thread, WillyT.
LovingA2andMI
(7,006 posts)Spitfire of ATJ
(32,723 posts)I guess it depends on how much America cares about the Rust Belt.
warrprayer
(4,734 posts)And rec
Metric System
(6,048 posts)roguevalley
(40,656 posts)Metric System
(6,048 posts)Gore1FL
(21,643 posts)In that case, it appears the whole country is reaching new lows.
GoneFishin
(5,217 posts)rather they are intended to control the outcome. The pundit$ are paid by the network owner$ who are much more intere$ted in controlling the outcome of the election than they are in objectively reporting and informing their viewing audience.
Bubzer
(4,211 posts)Thank you, WillyT.
NCjack
(10,287 posts)wants to be the last to donate to an exhausted campaign. As of last week, they were not bring in enough income to maintain advertisements to match Bernie2016's spending. Her vendors were complaining publicly about not being paid. And, the Bernie donators are preparing to give him a money shower tonight. What will he get just tonight alone? Probably over $5 million if wins IL, MO, and OH.
think
(11,641 posts)Wikipedia entry for Mr. Curry:
https://goo.gl/RmWH3K
WillyT
(72,631 posts)From article at OP.