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Wed Mar 16, 2016, 10:44 AM

 

Yesterday, Sanders needed 54% of remaining delegates. Today he needs 58%.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-is-following-obamas-path-to-the-nomination/
Sanders will need to win about 58 percent of the remaining 2,000 or so elected delegates to tie Clinton. Since the Democrats allot delegates proportionally, that means he’d need to win about 58 percent of the vote in the average remaining state to Clinton’s 42 percent, meaning he’d need to beat Clinton by around 16 points the rest of the way.


Problem is, there are only something like 2 or 3 "open" primaries left where independents can make a difference. Everything else is closed, registered Democrats only. And Clinton is winning them by a wide margin, enough to prevent any "blowouts" necessary for Sanders to catch up.

And the percentage of delegates he needs to win will only climb higher and higher as the race goes on.

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Reply Yesterday, Sanders needed 54% of remaining delegates. Today he needs 58%. (Original post)
CalvinballPro Mar 2016 OP
firebrand80 Mar 2016 #1
morningfog Mar 2016 #3
morningfog Mar 2016 #2
MineralMan Mar 2016 #4
thereismore Mar 2016 #5
lmbradford Mar 2016 #6
Codeine Mar 2016 #7

Response to CalvinballPro (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 10:46 AM

1. and he'll likely lose PA + NJ + NY by roughly 60-40

Whether he drops out or not, this thing is OVER

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Response to firebrand80 (Reply #1)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 10:53 AM

3. Losing MA was a big turning event. Then, winning MI changed the analysis again.

 

TO me, it was open as to whether MI was a one-off or a trend. He had narrowed the gap in MA, and then won MI, so I waited to see where it was heading in the large blue states and large mid west states. Losing Ohio (badly) and Illinois answered the question.

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Response to CalvinballPro (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 10:48 AM

2. There are four open primaries and three semi-open or semi-closed.

 

By my calculations, I think he needs somewhere in the order or 62% of the remaining delegates. Not all have been allocated from last night yet, so I can't give a certain number.

What is clear is that the path to a majority of the pledged delegates for Bernie is practically impossible.

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Response to CalvinballPro (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 10:56 AM

4. There are still some very large states, with large delegations, left

to hold primaries. Some of them, NY, PA and NJ are unlikely to move far from current polling. Clinton has considerable momentum after yesterday. California, the other mega-state, does have open primaries. However, polling there is still in Clinton's favor and there is that momentum issue.

If Sanders hopes to win any of those four states, he's going to have to focus almost all of his energy and funds on them. I doubt if that is his plan, frankly. He put a lot of money into Ohio and Illinois, only to lose in both of those states. He put less into Florida and NC, and lost those even more clearly. The four remaining high-delegate states are more like Florida and NC than Ohio. Those are must-wins for Senator Sanders, but they're going to be very, very tough states to win or even tie.

I imagine his campaign is working on strategy today, in hopes of finding a strategy that gives them a chance in the remaining large states. I don't know what that strategy would be, though.

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Response to CalvinballPro (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 10:57 AM

5. It's less than 60%.

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Response to CalvinballPro (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 11:49 AM

6. Its silly

I dont get why we think he cant win all of the upcoming progressive states by large margins. He came from nothing and is tying at the halfway point. This is not quite halfway. As Bernie speaks, he gains support. Let him speak. I have faith that this kind, honest, wonderful man can and will reach the voters he needs to, with our help of course. The choice is clear. Lying, smug, scandal ridden Clunton or clean honest hard working Sanders.

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Response to lmbradford (Reply #6)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 12:00 PM

7. "Clunton"?!

 

I will grant you the benefit of the doubt and say that was an unfortunate typo.

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