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2016 Postmortem

TroyD

(4,551 posts) Wed Oct 17, 2012, 04:48 PM Oct 2012

4

Nate: 'The first rule of poll analysis is that if a poll looks like an outlier it usually is'

Nate Silver

The first rule of poll analysis is that if a poll looks like an outlier, it usually is.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

7 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Nate: 'The first rule of poll analysis is that if a poll looks like an outlier it usually is' (Original Post) TroyD Oct 2012 OP

referring to gallup? mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #1

Is he talking about Gallup? WI_DEM Oct 2012 #2

Yes. -nt gcomeau Oct 2012 #4

He didn't say so explicitly... regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #5

He Has to Be DarthDem Oct 2012 #6

read this on twitter... BraKez2 Oct 2012 #3

first thing I said about the Gallup poll was that it's an outlier magical thyme Oct 2012 #7

mgcgulfcoast

(1,127 posts)

1. referring to gallup?

Reply to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 04:53 PM

Oct 2012

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)

2. Is he talking about Gallup?

Reply to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 04:56 PM

Oct 2012

gcomeau

(5,764 posts)

4. Yes. -nt

Reply to WI_DEM (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 05:00 PM

Oct 2012

regnaD kciN

(26,045 posts)

5. He didn't say so explicitly...

Reply to WI_DEM (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 05:56 PM

Oct 2012

...but I can't see what else it could be referring to, considering the timing.

DarthDem

(5,257 posts)

6. He Has to Be

Reply to WI_DEM (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 06:20 PM

Oct 2012

There's nothing else that I can imagine that he'd be referring to. And Silvers mind works mathematically (which is both good and bad for those of us who are interested in his views), so I think he would have added a clarifier if he didn't assume that what he was talking about was clear.

BraKez2

(279 posts)

3. read this on twitter...

Reply to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 04:59 PM

Oct 2012

...first thought... gallup

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)

7. first thing I said about the Gallup poll was that it's an outlier

Reply to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 06:26 PM

Oct 2012

No way that women suddenly swung so heavily to Romney.

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