Here’s How Bernie Sanders Could Win the Nomination - NYT

[WillyT]

Here’s How Bernie Sanders Could Win the Nomination
Nate Cohn - NYT
MARCH 17, 2016

<snip>

The worst is over for Bernie Sanders. The primaries in the South are finished, and now the Democratic contest heads north to bluer and, for the most part, whiter states.

Mr. Sanders should fare better over the second half of the primary season, after black voters gave Hillary Clinton such a big advantage in the first half. But the path to a majority of delegates is nonetheless a daunting one. He would need to win the remaining delegates by around a 58-42 percent margin after falling behind again in the delegate count Tuesday night.

A Sanders Hot Streak

It might be very hard for Mr. Sanders to win the remaining states by such a margin — though it might not seem that way at first. The next month features numerous contests where Mr. Sanders could be dominant before the calendar turns to those offering Mrs. Clinton more favorable terrain.

Mr. Sanders is clearly favored to exceed his target — the roughly 16-point, 58-to-42 percent margin of victory — in six of the eight contests over the next month. He’s a strong favorite in the caucuses in Idaho, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington and Wyoming. Barack Obama won an average of 72 percent of the vote in these contests in 2008, and so far Mr. Sanders is running an average of four points behind Mr. Obama’s showing in caucus states. Mr. Sanders is also a strong favorite in the Utah primary.

Combined, these six states hold 216 delegates. Mr. Sanders might hope to win them by a 2-to-1 margin — perhaps narrowing Mrs. Clinton’s lead by 65 to 70 delegates.

In the middle of all of that will be two states that could be slightly more competitive: Wisconsin and Arizona. Wisconsin is where Mr. Sanders really needs to run up the score if he wants to overcome Mrs. Clinton’s advantage. Arizona will be important for another reason: It’s a harbinger of how Southern California might vote

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More: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/17/upshot/heres-how-bernie-sanders-could-win-the-nomination.html?_r=0

[Jarqui]

1. How long until the NYT editors change this story into a hit piece ... nt

[revbones]

5. < 24 hours. nt

[artyteacher]

2. magic eom

[marions ghost]

3. K&R

[MaggieD]

4. Did you read it?

It pretty much explains that it's not going to happen.

[Punkingal]

6. Thanks, WillyT.

You make me feel good!

[workinclasszero]

7. So the Bernie revolution is a white movement?

Good to know I guess.

[KPN]

8. No -- it's a socio-economic/all-of-us movement.

"All-of-us" may not be awake however.

[CalvinballPro]

10. The condescending white privilege of Sanders' supporters needs to stop. You're not winning over any

voters by saying that everyone of their race or background is wrong or stupid for not backing Bernie. You're doing more harm than good with that failed attempt at a viable argument.

[imagine2015]

11. Most Black, Latino and white working class youth have voted for Bernie, not Hillary.

Why do you think that is?

[CalvinballPro]

12. I'd prefer to see some actual evidence of that, rather than just your assertion, before commenting.

[KPN]

13. Huh?!

Who said anything about race or background? Sorry if my comment struck you the way it obviously did. But I think you are reading stuff into it that isn't there. The Bernie movement is about everybody ... and as I said, some prefer not to participate. Yes, I said it in response to the prior Hillary poster's snide remark about the Bernie movement being a "white movement". In my view, that post was offensive and ought to be censored! I imagine it struck me a lot like your interpretation of my post struck you.

The Bernie movement is not a "white" movement. It's driven primarily by today's income inequality problem which results in large part from corruption in our electoral and governance systems. That covers some pretty broad (diverse) ground. I personally believe that many of our social problems today have roots in poverty. That's not to say that racism hasn't and also does not influence socio-economics and therefore poverty. Racism is a huge and persistent problem today, okay? For those who are directly impacted by it, it's the key issue. But that doesn't mean that socio-economics isn't important for everyone.

As for my "some are not awake" comment, in my view that goes primarily to the 3rd Wayers/neoliberals in our party who, frankly, don't seem sufficiently concerned about corporate take-over of our Congress. That's just the way I feel and see it.

Last thing: I think Bernie and Hillary will both be excellent Presidents when it comes to taking on racism/bigotry. So for me, that issue is covered. The socio-economic piece though -- not so much. Bernie has my confidence hands down.

[roody]

15. If the NYT is your authority.

[CalvinballPro]

9. 3/7-3/11 Merrill poll for AZ shows Clinton up 50-24, a +26 difference.

And that was before Clinton swept 5 states this past Tuesday. Keep in mind, AZ is one of the contests that Sanders needs to win 60-40 to be on track to win enough delegates.

[amborin]

14. K&R