Grove Insight poll: COLORADO (Obama +3)

[TroyD]

This is a Democratic polling firm, so some may accuse it of having a bias, but it appears to back up the YouGov poll from yesterday which shows the same thing.

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Barack Obama (D) - 47.0

Mitt Romney (R) - 44.0

10/15/2012 to 10/16/2012.

500 Likely Voters were polled by telephone survey.

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/polls/507f1f66ebcabf1c98000075

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/PNAColorado1007.pdf

[Panasonic]

1. Early voting starts on October 22nd.

Next week.

My parents are going to be unfortunately +2 Romney unless I can get my mom to change her mind.

Dad is hopeless. We agreed to disagree on the choices. (I have to - I work with him)

[TroyD]

2. More data

President Obama Leads in Colorado

 Barack Obama holds a slim, three-point lead in Colorado, garnering 47% of the vote to Romney’s 44%.

 There is gender divide at play here with women much more likely to vote for the President (53% Obama to 39% Romney), while men opt for the Republican in greater numbers (41% Obama, 49% Romney).

 Obama holds a commanding 49%-34% lead among unaffiliated voters, who are the key to any statewide victory in Colorado.

 Obama’s lead can be explained by an advantage he enjoys when it comes to taking a long-term view on what is right for America, and being perceived as someone who will fight for “people like you.”

 The candidates are virtually even when it comes to who is “more likely to raise taxes on the middle class.”

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/PNAColorado1007.pdf

[Cosmocat]

3. slim

this is an automatic in any "analysis" of a democrat with a lead less than 7 points ...

RARELY, if ever, used for an R.

[MSMITH33156]

5. Either slim

or statistical dead heat. When it's a Romney lead, it's a "surge into the lead."

[Cosmocat]

8. that's it

or, when it was bush - steady lead ...

[TroyD]

6. It's a Democratic firm (run by David Axelrod's son, I think)

So I don't think they are trying to downplay Obama's lead in this case. I think they are just trying to be objective when looking at all the numbers.

[Cosmocat]

7. they all do it ...

does not matter who it is.

they may not be doing it intentionally, but the framing is the framing.

[courseofhistory]

4. I voted in CO and mailed

my ballot today! Obama, of course!