2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHillary Clinton will lose to Donald Trump
This article lays out some (though not all) of the arguments as to why Trump will beat Clinton.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/03/18/hillary-clinton-will-lose-to-donald-trump/
RandySF
(59,158 posts)Any Democrat would win a landslide against Trump.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)villager
(26,001 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)villager
(26,001 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)villager
(26,001 posts)But who doesn't enjoy posting a Latin phrase now and again?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)villager
(26,001 posts)We will have other things on our plate aside from "levity," then...
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)villager
(26,001 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)Actually I hope the FBI recommends charges be filed, because everything I have seen is pretty convincing that she broke the law.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)Nothing illegal happened with that email bullshit. They would also have to indict Colin Powell who did the same thing. And Jeb Bush at the state level who did the same thing. And Condoleeza Rice whose people did the same thing. Enough of that NONSENSE.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)Total votes outnumbered the Republicans' total votes?
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)FreakinDJ
(17,644 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Bernie has gotten more than Trump who has the most votes in the GOP side.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)Thank you in advance.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)I couldn't care less what you and your associates think about me. I would think a lad as perspicacious as you think you are would have figured that out by now.
Squinch
(50,993 posts)Timmy5835
(373 posts)Unless Trump can get at least 46% of the Latino vote, he has NO chance of winning. Quit listening to the Media. Their job is to create controversy thus creating viewers and readers so THEY make MORE money. You're just a rube to them, don't fall for it.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)However he can get such a high percentage of the white vote that he can mitigate his damage among non white voters. That, however, would require him to receive a larger percentage of the white vote than any Republican in presidential history including Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon who own two of the largest electoral landslides in history.
EmperorHasNoClothes
(4,797 posts)Trump is an insane, fascist idiot but he is really good getting his base of like minded idiots excited enough to turn out and vote for him.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction
Herr Trump will bring those who oppose his incipient fascist ass out of the proverbial woodwork.
msongs
(67,433 posts)brooklynite
(94,703 posts)Rebkeh
(2,450 posts)The party will lose with her at the helm.
They cannot beat Trump. He has no conscience, you cannot beat someone with no conscience using the same old tactics. Her way of doing things will not work. She does not have what it takes to win and keep the party intact so... No, she cannot beat Trump.
Bernie is the only one up there that can and, the article is right, a huge chunk of Bernie supporters will go Trump. It seems counter-intuitive but it is absolutely true. I see it every day.
Don't bother asking if I will, I will not. But my state will for sure.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)The peer reviewed research suggests asking voters who they think will win is the best predictor of electoral success, ergo:
Simple surveys that ask people who they expect to win are among the most
accurate methods for forecasting U.S. presidential elections
https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf
Studies of prediction market accuracy for election forecasting commonly compare the
daily market forecasts to results from polls published the same day. These studies generally find
that prediction markets yield more accurate forecasts than single polls.
https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf
Hillary Clinton is a nearly 1/3 favorite at the offshore betting sites and the VT senator is nearly a 30-1 underdog
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner
The efficacy of polls nine months out in predicting a general election winner is essentially null:
intend to vote if the election were held today. That is, polls do not provide predictions; they
provide snapshots of public opinion at a certain point in time. However, this is not how the
media commonly treat polls. Polling results are routinely interpreted as forecasts of what will
happen on Election Day (Hillygus 2011). This can result in poor predictions, in particular if the
election is still far away, because public opinion can be difficult to measure and fragile over the
course of a campaign. However, researchers found ways to deal with these problems and to
increase the accuracy of poll-based predictions
https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)book_worm
(15,951 posts)Hillary will beat Trump.
Gothmog
(145,489 posts)The Democrats and Clinton are being given a 71% chance of winning in November. http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner The free market system disagrees with your assessment but the investors setting this price would be happy to take your money. Open an account and buy a contract if you really believe your analysis
Bill USA
(6,436 posts)Lil Missy
(17,865 posts)smiley
(1,432 posts)And personally I think you would have to be detached from reality to think she doesn't have a gazillion monkeys on her back just waiting to drag her down.
But at the same time... maybe you're right. Old Donny, Hill, & Bill are great friends (you've seen the pic right?), so maybe he'll go easy on her.