2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew state and national poll averages put HRC well ahead in NY, PA, AZ, and CA
Last edited Fri Mar 18, 2016, 07:59 PM - Edit history (2)
These delegate-rich states comprise all the states with poll averages reported by RealClearpolitics:
Arizona: Clinton 48.5, Sanders 21.5
New York: Clinton 63, Sanders 28.5
Pennsylvania: Clinton 49.3, Sanders 26
California: Clinton 42.5, Sanders 29
National: Clinton 51, Sanders 39.6
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/?state=nwa
ON EDIT: All eight western and northern states between now and NY (which includes AZ) in total have FEWER delegates (280, total) than NY alone -- which has 291. PA has 210 and CA, the motherlode, has 548.
But all of the Democratic primaries are divided proportionally, so only large wins yield substantially different numbers of delegates. This is why Hillary is likely, over the long run, to sustain or even increase her current lead -- though Bernie could temporarily cut into her delegate count during the next 8 contests.
If he is as successful as Obama was in 2008 in those states, he will reduce her delegate lead from about 325 to about 265.
And then will come NY, which has more delegates than the previous 8 states combined -- and where Hillary was re-elected to her position as Senator with very wide margins.
LonePirate
(13,431 posts)Donkees
(31,450 posts)Happenstance24
(193 posts)livetohike
(22,157 posts)SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)If only people actually voted for him that is
Jitter65
(3,089 posts)pnwmom
(108,990 posts)It's open to Democrats and voters with no preference.
Jitter65
(3,089 posts)pnwmom
(108,990 posts)subsequent primaries and caucuses (split state delegates in half) and she'd still be 325 delegates ahead.
Bernie's the one with the problem. He has to take 58% of all the future delegates in order to win. (More if you include super delegates.) How's he going to manage that?
wyldwolf
(43,869 posts)pkdu
(3,977 posts)griffi94
(3,733 posts)If it starts looking like he's running a Forlorn Hope campaign
expect his numbers to drop off.
Closed primaries are also a factor since Bernie doesn't
do as well with traditional Democrats.
He does really well with the younger voters but they haven't been turning
out in as high numbers as he needs. If they're feeling like he's no longer
a viable candidate they may not be as enthusiastic.
Go Hillary! I'm not sure where Bernie supporters get the idea that CA, NY, and NJ will go overwhelmingly to him?
pnwmom
(108,990 posts)But Hillary actually came out of that the winner since they basically split the delegates down the middle with Bernies getting a bit more. She also took all delegates in Mississippi that day as well. I don't think they understand that even if Sanders were to win every single state from here on out he still will likely fall short of the required delegates. Sanders needs to win by 60-40 at least in every single remaining state to have a chance.
pnwmom
(108,990 posts)(from their point of view) and she'll drop out.
I really don't see how they they think they will happen, when the voting trends show the opposite. And it even seems like they willfully fail to accept the fact Hillary has 2.5 million more votes than Bernie. Somehow thats not a majority.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I have not seen it. Please link if so. Thanks!