HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » 2016 Postmortem (Forum) » Sanders top pick in Tuesd...

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:14 AM

Sanders top pick in Tuesday's Utah caucuses, poll says

link to Cruz, Sanders top picks in Tuesday's Utah caucuses, poll says; excerpt:

SALT LAKE CITY Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is the top pick of Utahns in Tuesday's GOP presidential preference caucus election and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is their choice in the Democratic caucus vote, according to a new Deseret News/KSL poll.

Cruz also leads GOP frontrunner Donald Trump and Ohio Gov. John Kasich among Republicans who said they're likely to participate in the caucus, as does Sanders over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton among a similar group of Democrats.... All of the candidates except Clinton have made campaign stops in Utah over the past several days and both the candidates and political action committees are blanketing Utah airwaves with well over $1 million in television and radio commercials.... Sanders, who has the support of 52 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers in the poll to 44 percent for Clinton, appeals to Utah voters because he's seen as "authentic. He is true to himself and we like that," Love said.

This Utah polling corresponds to the projection at PredictWise, which has Sanders as the favorite in the following upcoming races:

Utah - 83% chance of Sanders win
Idaho - 85% chance of Sanders win
Alaska - 84% chance of Sanders win
Hawaii - 53% chance of Sanderswin
Washington - 87% chance of Sanders win

20 replies, 1503 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 20 replies Author Time Post
Reply Sanders top pick in Tuesday's Utah caucuses, poll says (Original post)
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 OP
Trust Buster Mar 2016 #1
DanTex Mar 2016 #2
workinclasszero Mar 2016 #7
firebrand80 Mar 2016 #9
workinclasszero Mar 2016 #10
PaulaFarrell Mar 2016 #17
workinclasszero Mar 2016 #18
PaulaFarrell Mar 2016 #19
book_worm Mar 2016 #3
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #5
Funtatlaguy Mar 2016 #4
Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #6
firebrand80 Mar 2016 #8
Vote2016 Mar 2016 #14
firebrand80 Mar 2016 #15
Vote2016 Mar 2016 #20
CajunBlazer Mar 2016 #11
Vote2016 Mar 2016 #13
CajunBlazer Mar 2016 #16
Vote2016 Mar 2016 #12

Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:16 AM

1. Hillary will crush him in Arizona and lengthen her delegate lead.

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:17 AM

2. Sounds about right. Demographics favor him in the next week or two.

Fortunately, most of those states have very low populations, so he won't make much headway in the delegate count.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DanTex (Reply #2)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:22 AM

7. Pyrrhic victories in low pop states

 

won't get Bernie the nomination. Oh well.

If he could have had big wins in Texas or Florida...but he doesn't run well in Confederate states! LOL

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to workinclasszero (Reply #7)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:26 AM

9. Yeah, but it will keep DU entertaining

for at least a few more weeks.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to firebrand80 (Reply #9)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:30 AM

10. True

 

I look forward to the crowing of BS fans when he wins Utah or something by 2%.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to workinclasszero (Reply #7)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 12:49 PM

17. why do you say Pyrrhic?

Maybe you mean symbolic. Or token.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to PaulaFarrell (Reply #17)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 01:12 PM

18. It just does him no good

 

Winning a small state closely over Hillary will net Bernie nothing.

Hillary will get delegates every time too and shes 300 plus ahead right now.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to workinclasszero (Reply #18)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 01:16 PM

19. that not the meaning of pyrrhic n/t

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:18 AM

3. It's a caucus state and Bernie does best in those states

also an open caucus. But I'm surprised it's as close as it is--Obama beat her by a larger margin in Utah in 2008. If it really is something like 55-45 he'll probably get about 2 delegates more than HRC.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to book_worm (Reply #3)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:20 AM

5. When you have more supporters and more enthusiastic supporters, you generally regardless of whether

it is a caucus or a primary.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:18 AM

4. I wish Arizona looked as good for Bernie

Arizona is 85-15 for Hillary. Argh.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Funtatlaguy (Reply #4)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:22 AM

6. It's a betting market; betting markets favor the Goliath over the underdog.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 10:24 AM

8. Under 60% = Win for Hillary

He needs blowouts, 55% won't get it done

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to firebrand80 (Reply #8)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 11:42 AM

14. no, he needs to average 57%. no specific race has to reach 60%

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Vote2016 (Reply #14)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 11:48 AM

15. In every contest that he doesn't hit that number

The number he needs grows larger

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to firebrand80 (Reply #15)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 02:43 PM

20. and in every contest where Sanders exceeds that goal (thanks Democrats Abroad!) the goal goes down!

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 11:29 AM

11. Don't get your hopes up

Here is the available polling data of of the RealClearPolitics.com website:

3/22/16:


In Idaho, Sanders has a 2% lead .
Nate Silver: No prediction

In Utah Clinton has a 8.5% lead.
Nate Silver: Sanders 51.2% chance of wining, Clinton 43.9% chance of wining

In Arizona Clinton has a 30% lead.
Nate Silver: Clinton 51.1 chance of wining, Sanders 22.7% chance of wining

3/26/16:

In Alaska Clinton has a 3% lead.
Nate Silver: No prediction

Washington - no reliable poll
Nate Silver: No prediction

Hawaii - no reliable poll
Nate Silver: No prediction

So, ask yourself, based on these polls results, and lack of reliable poll results how in the heck can these predictions be right?

And since Arizona has more delegates than Idaho, Utah and Alaska combined, it's certainly possible that Sanders is going to slip even further behind.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to CajunBlazer (Reply #11)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 11:41 AM

13. we should worry about Nate's predictions because he's been wrong so often in 2016 that he's overdue

 

to get one right?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Vote2016 (Reply #13)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 11:58 AM

16. Tell me, which of any of the March primaries and caucuses is...

Last edited Mon Mar 21, 2016, 01:03 PM - Edit history (1)

...Sanders going to win big enough to cut into Clinton's lead? Remember, virtual ties and close wins no longer cut it.

Since the answer is "none" what that means is that by the end of March 6 more state opportunities will have come and gone without any progress in catching Clinton meaning that Bernie will have to win the remaining states by even larger margins.

His best opportunity is to win big, delegate rich states in a dramatic fashion. However, there are only of those states two left: California where Sanders is behind by 13% and New York where he is behind by more 30%.

Sanders has absolutely no clear path victory - none.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 11:39 AM

12. kick & rec #5

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread