2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPPP: Our Iowa poll tomorrow is going to be a whole lot better for Romney than the NBC one tonight
PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
Our Iowa poll tomorrow is going to be a whole lot better for Romney than the NBC one tonight
https://twitter.com/ppppolls
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts).
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Just like the Marquette University one got more play than this NBC WI poll will.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)I watch CNN and MSNBC I never see a PPP poll reference. For that matter I don't see Rass polls referenced either. All media outlets have lists of approved pollsters they are allowed to cite.
teabaggersarestupid
(111 posts)The MSNBC polls use better methodologies? I'm worried about the ppp Iowa poll since they said yesterday that Colorado's poll was more favorable for Obama than NH and IA. PPP Colorado poll only has Obama up by 3, so what does that mean? That NH and IA or tied or a small Romney lead even? Urggghhhh
underthematrix
(5,811 posts)likely voters, registered voters or the already voted?
regnaD kciN
(26,045 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)It may just mean that the lead for Obama is smaller.
PPP likes sending out these teasing Tweets.
davidn3600
(6,342 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)I'm getting just a bit frustrated with these PPP teasers.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)The other polls have shown Obama around (+3) in Iowa on average, so that's probably what PPP will find too.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)This is why, I am cautiously confident regardless of what the MSM says. With early voting, Obama is doing quite well in Ohio and Iowa.
abumbyanyothername
(2,711 posts)Dad was President of his Local of the Communications Workers of America. Mom, Dad, Daughter, Niece, Niece's fiancee all libs. 4 of 5 have early voted. (Get with it, bumette jr.!)
Brother (right leaning ind.), Son (security right, also blames O for more regulation around mortgage loan origination business), daughter-in-law (bankers daughter R) all lean right. So far none have voted.
FWIW.
edit to add: Even though I moved to CA, they all live in IA.
Mutiny In Heaven
(550 posts)PPP made it quite clear that they found Obama to be performing better in Colorado than IA or NH.
IrishSean723
(26 posts)is how there is almost a sense of gloating about the good Romney numbers. They're pretty much not even trying to hide the fact that they want to dictate the narrative anymore.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)And unprofessional.
regnaD kciN
(26,045 posts)You're right -- it seems like they're trying to drive the right-wing narrative recently.
John2
(2,730 posts)I wish Marist would Poll North Carolina because I'm getting tired of these Republican Pollsters. I haven't voted yet and haven't seen a Romney supporter yet. All I see are Obama signs. I heard Rick Santorum was in North Carolina today begging for votes. He needs to go back to Pennsylvania.
thatsrightimirish
(1,391 posts)Fringe
(175 posts)Last edited Thu Oct 18, 2012, 08:20 PM - Edit history (1)
PPP is a democratic leaning poll. I'm fond of PPP. I despise Rasmussen.
PPP was fairly accurate in a lot of their state polls in 2008, unlike Rasmussen. They usually add those that have already voted in their poll which is something I love about them.
The NBC/WSJ/Marist has Obama with an 8 point lead; I'm thinking PPP will have Obama with a 5-7 point lead.
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)Fringe
(175 posts)I can't compare Iowa for 2008 because PPP didn't poll in Iowa in 2008 at least I couldn't find it, but I did find Indiana, Florida and North Carolina.
PPP was dead on in Indiana and that was outstanding because even the RCP average screwed up Indiana.
PPP was insanely close in Florida and North Carolina.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_mccain_vs_obama-604.html#polls
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html#polls
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_mccain_vs_obama-334.html#polls
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)A one or two point swing ain't 'a whole lot better'. My guess is they have either Romney and Obama tied or Romney with a slight lead.
Fringe
(175 posts)Last edited Thu Oct 18, 2012, 07:56 PM - Edit history (1)
However, their last teaser said about the same thing, and that poll turned out to be way better than most expected.
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)The folks that are crowding the early voting in Iowa and other places are NOT considering "likely voters" by people like PPP and others.
They are really getting ridiculous. Romney fucking TANKED in the debates.
Blaukraut
(5,693 posts)is really unprofessional. Their nasty little teaser tweets lately have been pathetic.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)I mean, WTF?
Blaukraut
(5,693 posts)Fringe
(175 posts)They are f**king with people! They have bills to pay and more traffic means more money.
However, I still like PPP polls.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)They are trying to gain attention by sensationalizing their findings.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Mass
(27,315 posts)Just curious, but someone said O is kicking butt in early voting in Ohio and Iowa, but how does anyone know this? Is there some type of list of what party has submitted the most votes?
mzmolly
(51,004 posts)has data?
Mass
(27,315 posts)Survey USA has a poll out today and they show what % of Democrats that have already voted.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9fe706c7-86ef-4698-b0d3-15ec2d79d203
PPP does the same thing:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_OH_1013.pdf
As for Iowa: I first went here where I saw that more democrats than republicans have already voted in Iowa, and other places too, but I can't remember where.
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html
mzmolly
(51,004 posts)PPP has been pretty good, but I have noticed their percentage for Black voters are unusually higher than other Polls for Romney. I'm an African American in North Carolina. I have not met one for Romney? Where do they live?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)I suspect some whites are pretending to be African American so it will appear the president is doing worse among African Americans. I noticed the same thing in some Survey USA polls, who are also robocallers. I think this affects the subsamples more than the entire sample.
How messed up and childish are Republicans.
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)3 or 4 would be fine.
S_E_Fudd
(1,295 posts)In pissing in people's Wheaties...
Seems unprofessional to me...and they are prejudging the results of a poll still being conducted...
fugop
(1,828 posts)Is this a three-day poll? Night of the debate, night after and then tonight? If so, what if tonight is better for O? Will they backtrack like with their Ohio that they teased too early?
I've liked PPP but yea, the tweets are just annoying.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)Strange.
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)Yeah, 3 points is better than 8 I guess.
outsideworld
(601 posts)Fringe
(175 posts)I know I said that I really like PPP and I do for the most part, but I have to wonder about some of these numbers in their newest poll.
First, according to the last registered voter totals in Iowa as of Oct 2012:
http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/VRStatsArchive/2012/CoOct12.pdf
Democrats make up 32% of the vote
Republicans make up 33% of the vote
A 1% difference.
Yet PPP used 34% for democrats, and 38% for republicans for this recent poll.
A 4% difference.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IANH_1019.pdf
However,
PPP, used 37% democrats and 33% republicans for their Sept 26 poll. (4% more democrats)
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_926.pdf
So, I not sure what to think, but 4% more republicans seems like too much.
Also, (likely or enthusiastic voters) Democrats are winning early ballot return by 18% so aren't we enthusiastic?
http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2012/general/absenteestats.pdf