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Mon Mar 21, 2016, 11:51 PM

 

There is a 99.99% chance that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Nominee.

It is what it is.

61 replies, 8200 views

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Reply There is a 99.99% chance that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Nominee. (Original post)
KMOD Mar 2016 OP
PoliticAverse Mar 2016 #1
revbones Mar 2016 #2
bkkyosemite Mar 2016 #3
reformist2 Mar 2016 #4
brooklynite Mar 2016 #12
basselope Mar 2016 #28
KMOD Mar 2016 #30
PoliticAverse Mar 2016 #39
KMOD Mar 2016 #40
basselope Mar 2016 #49
John Poet Mar 2016 #53
jillan Mar 2016 #5
AgerolanAmerican Mar 2016 #6
geek tragedy Mar 2016 #8
Beacool Mar 2016 #9
NurseJackie Mar 2016 #55
Codeine Mar 2016 #56
KMOD Mar 2016 #7
PoliticAverse Mar 2016 #14
KMOD Mar 2016 #16
cherokeeprogressive Mar 2016 #18
KMOD Mar 2016 #21
cherokeeprogressive Mar 2016 #35
PoliticAverse Mar 2016 #19
EndElectoral Mar 2016 #10
KMOD Mar 2016 #13
EndElectoral Mar 2016 #15
KMOD Mar 2016 #17
PoliticAverse Mar 2016 #22
KMOD Mar 2016 #24
OilemFirchen Mar 2016 #11
840high Mar 2016 #20
PoliticAverse Mar 2016 #25
840high Mar 2016 #50
LineReply .
longship Mar 2016 #23
basselope Mar 2016 #26
Iliyah Mar 2016 #42
basselope Mar 2016 #48
pa28 Mar 2016 #27
Kip Humphrey Mar 2016 #29
KMOD Mar 2016 #32
highprincipleswork Mar 2016 #31
KMOD Mar 2016 #33
highprincipleswork Mar 2016 #36
KMOD Mar 2016 #38
highprincipleswork Mar 2016 #41
KMOD Mar 2016 #44
highprincipleswork Mar 2016 #54
4nic8em Mar 2016 #45
Art_from_Ark Mar 2016 #46
NJCher Mar 2016 #52
steve2470 Mar 2016 #34
KMOD Mar 2016 #37
Iliyah Mar 2016 #43
Betty Karlson Mar 2016 #47
DemocracyDirect Mar 2016 #51
VulgarPoet Mar 2016 #57
DrDan Mar 2016 #58
BernieforPres2016 Mar 2016 #59
Jim Lane Mar 2016 #60
pdsimdars Mar 2016 #61

Response to KMOD (Original post)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 11:53 PM

1. 83.5% of all statistics are just made up. n/t

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Response to PoliticAverse (Reply #1)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 11:54 PM

2. ^^ Awesome ^^ nt

 

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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 11:54 PM

3. How do you know. Have you met that IT guy?

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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 11:55 PM

4. All Hillary's got left is the illusion of inevitability. On policy, she's awful.

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Response to reformist2 (Reply #4)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:05 AM

12. Not, apparently to most Democrats.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #12)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:31 AM

28. MOST democrats haven't voted yet.

 

Luckily, the primaries are not just about the opinions of the small minority of the population that are "democrats"

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Response to basselope (Reply #28)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:34 AM

30. The Democratic primary is absolutely about Democrats.

 

Non Democrats can have their opinion in the General Election.

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Response to KMOD (Reply #30)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:55 AM

39. This would be news to the several states that have "open" primaries.

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Response to PoliticAverse (Reply #39)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:59 AM

40. and yet,

 

she still has a million more votes than he does.

???

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Response to KMOD (Reply #40)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 03:19 AM

49. and yet the majority of states havent voted.

 

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Response to reformist2 (Reply #4)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 04:15 AM

53. On policy, Hillary's a fucking train wreck,

 

the kind of train wreck where, afterwards,
they go around and shoot the survivors.


'Who Would Hillary Bomb?'


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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Mon Mar 21, 2016, 11:56 PM

5. There is a 99.9% chance that tomorrow is going to be Tuesday.

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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:00 AM

6. Whatever the actual number is

 

it precisely matches the probability that I will end up voting third party this year

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Response to AgerolanAmerican (Reply #6)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:01 AM

8. Good for you and your spiritual mentor Ralph Nader nt

 

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #8)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:03 AM

9. LOL!!!

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Response to AgerolanAmerican (Reply #6)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 08:34 AM

55. Awww.


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Response to AgerolanAmerican (Reply #6)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 08:39 AM

56. Then step off. nt

 

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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:01 AM

7. lol

 

I thought you guys liked to deal with facts and reality.

So c'mon, prove me wrong.

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Response to KMOD (Reply #7)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:06 AM

14. Probabilities like this are not "facts", that's a fact. n/t

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Response to PoliticAverse (Reply #14)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:09 AM

16. OK, tell me how Bernie can miraculously overcome the math.

 

You must see that his odds are between slim and none.

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Response to KMOD (Reply #16)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:18 AM

18. If .01% separated slim and none we would still be crossing the ocean on wooden ships under sail.

 

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Response to cherokeeprogressive (Reply #18)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:23 AM

21. Yeah, and the NY Jets would have won another

 

Super bowl by now,

It is what it is. Hillary will be the Democratic nominee.

I see no path forward for Bernie. If you do, please post it.

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Response to KMOD (Reply #21)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:45 AM

35. Democracy.

 

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Response to KMOD (Reply #16)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:19 AM

19. You're changing what's being discussed. We're discussing the probability of Hillary Clinton

being the Democratic Nominee. If Clinton isn't the nominee that doesn't necessarily mean
Sanders would be.

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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:04 AM

10. May be. Let's hope she's not indicted.

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Response to EndElectoral (Reply #10)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:06 AM

13. You need to understand,

 

that is not going to happen.

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Response to KMOD (Reply #13)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:08 AM

15. I can't predict the future or I would have never thought Bush would be a two term President

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Response to EndElectoral (Reply #15)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:11 AM

17. It's just not going to happen.

 

You can take that to the bank.

It's as silly as thinking she'll be abducted by aliens.

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Response to KMOD (Reply #17)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:24 AM

22. You seem to have a lack of real undertanding of probability. The probability...

of Hillary Clinton not being the nominee is likely many many many times greater than her
being abducted by aliens.

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Response to PoliticAverse (Reply #22)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:26 AM

24. I agree.

 

She will be the nominee.



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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:05 AM

11. So...

a virtual tie.

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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:19 AM

20. Gee - pure as Ivory soap.

 

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Response to 840high (Reply #20)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:27 AM

25. The Ivory Soap claim is 99.44% pure. So a Clinton nomination is apparently purer...

according to the OP.

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Response to PoliticAverse (Reply #25)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 03:37 AM

50. LOL - of course.

 

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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:25 AM

23. .


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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:30 AM

26. And there is a 100% chance that I won't vote for her

 

And a 0% chance she can win the general election.

It is what it is.

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Response to basselope (Reply #26)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 01:10 AM

42. And there is -0- chance that I would vote for BS

But alas, if the cards fall that way, I would. I guess that's what make us different.

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Response to Iliyah (Reply #42)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 03:18 AM

48. Yes.. beceause he is a good candidate

 

with a good record.

I just dont vote for republicans.

THATS what makes us different

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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:31 AM

27. 57 experts agree.

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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:32 AM

29. WOW! We are in for the MOST EPIC FAIL OF ALL TIME!

It is what it is.

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Response to Kip Humphrey (Reply #29)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:37 AM

32. Maybe you are,

 

but I'm not.

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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:36 AM

31. Here are some fighting words for ya. THOSE WERE THE ODDS IN MICHIGAN!!!

 

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Response to highprincipleswork (Reply #31)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:38 AM

33. Yeah, but math.

 

Tell me his path to win. I promise, if you present it, I'll listen.

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Response to KMOD (Reply #33)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:47 AM

36. I'm not about the math. I'm about trying to do what's right and voting for same.

 

I don't know if that's a foreign concept around here, but there were golden ages of Democrats, around people like FDR and the Kennedys, when being a Democrat meant fighting for something profound for the average person.

Bobby Kennedy's death made me feel awful, because he was attracting so many people to his cause. And he had it all. He had the compassion and authenticity that I believe Bernie has. He had the toughness, and Bernie has shown himself to be pretty tough in his own way. But he also had the Kennedy name and more than a little touch of his own charisma.

But since Bobby, nobody has ignited a certain part of the Democratic base like Bernie Sanders. I'm not letting go of that excitement and that spirit and that feeling of going for what is right, not until and unless I have to.

And I hate to say it, if Hillary does not live up to enough of those more idealistic principles I'm talking about (much as Bill has failed to do so in the last years of his presidency and since), then I'm going to have a hard time voting for her. Not saying I won't. But I just hate voting against many of my best interests and for someone or something I don't believe in. Don't you?

I wish those in the Hillary camp could convince her and those of us who support Bernie that she will run anything like a Progressive campaign and run anything like a Progressive presidency.

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Response to highprincipleswork (Reply #36)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:53 AM

38. The overwhelming majority of Democrats

 

are backing and voting for Hillary.

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Response to KMOD (Reply #38)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 01:01 AM

41. Cannot explain why they are so in the dark, but that is not going to change my sense of what is

 

right or my knowledge of history in the slightest.

I feel sure you will not appreciate that comment, but her winning can be explained by many other factors other than doing what is right for the Democratic Party or for the average person or for the country.

I am long since past the point where I am surprised that people can believe or be led to believe all sorts of very bad things. In fact, the good things have to be spoken for and stood for just as much as the lies (proven fact) to be effective. The only thing is, they are somewhat easier and more palatable to stand for. That is why we love standing for Bernie and he enjoys standing for us. We actually feel we are in it for something that is right and good.

You may feel that same way about Hillary, but I do hear all sorts of other arguments like
he can't accomplish what he's saying
she's the safer choice
who is he anyway?
he's a racist or sexist - this is Rovian bullshit
she has the numbers

Look at the start of the race, when she really had the numbers.

I'm interested in people, and in how they feel, and what is actually right for the majority of them. And that's why I support Bernie, and will do so till there is no purpose to it. Unfortunately, that could be a very long time.

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Response to highprincipleswork (Reply #41)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 01:18 AM

44. We are not in the dark,

 

We simply don't agree with you.

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Response to KMOD (Reply #44)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 04:49 AM

54. Have you checked this out recently? You're in favor?

 

Just the latest in a long string of hits.

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Response to KMOD (Reply #38)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 02:13 AM

45. In that case...

If that's true, Then the overwhelming majority of Democrats want Trump for President.

It is what it isn't...

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Response to KMOD (Reply #38)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 03:00 AM

46. The majority of *ahem* Southern Democrats

Democrats who, for the most part, live in states that won't vote for the Democrat in the general election.

How many Democrats west of Kansas have been able to vote so far? Answer: Democrats in only two states so far-- Colorado and Nevada.

Despite your claim, Democrats in half the country have not been able to vote yet.

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Response to Art_from_Ark (Reply #46)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 04:00 AM

52. Excellent point, art

I had not thought about it that way before.

In light of what you say, then, why would any Democrat want to discount the votes in half the country? There is something fundamentally wrong with such a thinking process.

I also don't understand people who tell us what is going to happen and that it is what it is. I quit thinking that way a long time ago. About the time I feel certainty about anything, I find that life hands me a lesson telling me otherwise.

The truth of the matter is, it's hard to live with uncertainty.

Hmm, I think I just wrote myself into an explanation for a possible reason people do that.

Cher

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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:40 AM

34. hey DU sis!

Last edited Tue Mar 22, 2016, 11:54 AM - Edit history (1)

Good to see you again!

(brain fart re: sl lol )

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Response to steve2470 (Reply #34)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:48 AM

37. Hello my sweet brother,

 

I've missed you!!

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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 01:11 AM

43. K & R

Go Hillary!

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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 03:14 AM

47. Given Nate Silver's credibility on 99% sure wins,

 

I'd say Sanders has a VERY good chance of becoming our nominee.

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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 03:47 AM

51. Keep telling yourself that if you feel so scared to...

 

Let the rest of us vote.

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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 08:45 AM

57. Then America deserves what it gets. nt

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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 08:50 AM

58. a veritable bernie-math tie

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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 08:53 AM

59. There's a 100% chance I'll never see another post of yours nt

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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 02:19 PM

60. I'd put Clinton's chance lower, but even a very high probability isn't the same as certainty

 

Here's my post about a recent example, from Nate Silver's site.

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Response to KMOD (Original post)

Tue Mar 22, 2016, 02:24 PM

61. Let's hope it is the same 99% that she won Michigan by.

 

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