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There is a 99.99% chance that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Nominee. (Original Post) KMOD Mar 2016 OP
83.5% of all statistics are just made up. n/t PoliticAverse Mar 2016 #1
^^ Awesome ^^ nt revbones Mar 2016 #2
How do you know. Have you met that IT guy? bkkyosemite Mar 2016 #3
All Hillary's got left is the illusion of inevitability. On policy, she's awful. reformist2 Mar 2016 #4
Not, apparently to most Democrats. brooklynite Mar 2016 #12
MOST democrats haven't voted yet. basselope Mar 2016 #28
The Democratic primary is absolutely about Democrats. KMOD Mar 2016 #30
This would be news to the several states that have "open" primaries. PoliticAverse Mar 2016 #39
and yet, KMOD Mar 2016 #40
and yet the majority of states havent voted. basselope Mar 2016 #49
On policy, Hillary's a fucking train wreck, John Poet Mar 2016 #53
There is a 99.9% chance that tomorrow is going to be Tuesday. jillan Mar 2016 #5
Whatever the actual number is AgerolanAmerican Mar 2016 #6
Good for you and your spiritual mentor Ralph Nader nt geek tragedy Mar 2016 #8
LOL!!! Beacool Mar 2016 #9
Awww. NurseJackie Mar 2016 #55
Then step off. nt Codeine Mar 2016 #56
lol KMOD Mar 2016 #7
Probabilities like this are not "facts", that's a fact. n/t PoliticAverse Mar 2016 #14
OK, tell me how Bernie can miraculously overcome the math. KMOD Mar 2016 #16
If .01% separated slim and none we would still be crossing the ocean on wooden ships under sail. cherokeeprogressive Mar 2016 #18
Yeah, and the NY Jets would have won another KMOD Mar 2016 #21
Democracy. cherokeeprogressive Mar 2016 #35
You're changing what's being discussed. We're discussing the probability of Hillary Clinton PoliticAverse Mar 2016 #19
May be. Let's hope she's not indicted. EndElectoral Mar 2016 #10
You need to understand, KMOD Mar 2016 #13
I can't predict the future or I would have never thought Bush would be a two term President EndElectoral Mar 2016 #15
It's just not going to happen. KMOD Mar 2016 #17
You seem to have a lack of real undertanding of probability. The probability... PoliticAverse Mar 2016 #22
I agree. KMOD Mar 2016 #24
So... OilemFirchen Mar 2016 #11
Gee - pure as Ivory soap. 840high Mar 2016 #20
The Ivory Soap claim is 99.44% pure. So a Clinton nomination is apparently purer... PoliticAverse Mar 2016 #25
LOL - of course. 840high Mar 2016 #50
. longship Mar 2016 #23
And there is a 100% chance that I won't vote for her basselope Mar 2016 #26
And there is -0- chance that I would vote for BS Iliyah Mar 2016 #42
Yes.. beceause he is a good candidate basselope Mar 2016 #48
57 experts agree. pa28 Mar 2016 #27
WOW! We are in for the MOST EPIC FAIL OF ALL TIME! Kip Humphrey Mar 2016 #29
Maybe you are, KMOD Mar 2016 #32
Here are some fighting words for ya. THOSE WERE THE ODDS IN MICHIGAN!!! highprincipleswork Mar 2016 #31
Yeah, but math. KMOD Mar 2016 #33
I'm not about the math. I'm about trying to do what's right and voting for same. highprincipleswork Mar 2016 #36
The overwhelming majority of Democrats KMOD Mar 2016 #38
Cannot explain why they are so in the dark, but that is not going to change my sense of what is highprincipleswork Mar 2016 #41
We are not in the dark, KMOD Mar 2016 #44
Have you checked this out recently? You're in favor? highprincipleswork Mar 2016 #54
In that case... 4nic8em Mar 2016 #45
The majority of *ahem* Southern Democrats Art_from_Ark Mar 2016 #46
Excellent point, art NJCher Mar 2016 #52
hey DU sis! steve2470 Mar 2016 #34
Hello my sweet brother, KMOD Mar 2016 #37
K & R Iliyah Mar 2016 #43
Given Nate Silver's credibility on 99% sure wins, Betty Karlson Mar 2016 #47
Keep telling yourself that if you feel so scared to... DemocracyDirect Mar 2016 #51
Then America deserves what it gets. nt VulgarPoet Mar 2016 #57
a veritable bernie-math tie DrDan Mar 2016 #58
There's a 100% chance I'll never see another post of yours nt BernieforPres2016 Mar 2016 #59
I'd put Clinton's chance lower, but even a very high probability isn't the same as certainty Jim Lane Mar 2016 #60
Let's hope it is the same 99% that she won Michigan by. pdsimdars Mar 2016 #61
 

basselope

(2,565 posts)
28. MOST democrats haven't voted yet.
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:31 AM
Mar 2016

Luckily, the primaries are not just about the opinions of the small minority of the population that are "democrats"

 

KMOD

(7,906 posts)
30. The Democratic primary is absolutely about Democrats.
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:34 AM
Mar 2016

Non Democrats can have their opinion in the General Election.

 

John Poet

(2,510 posts)
53. On policy, Hillary's a fucking train wreck,
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 04:15 AM
Mar 2016

the kind of train wreck where, afterwards,
they go around and shoot the survivors.


'Who Would Hillary Bomb?'


 

AgerolanAmerican

(1,000 posts)
6. Whatever the actual number is
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:00 AM
Mar 2016

it precisely matches the probability that I will end up voting third party this year

 

KMOD

(7,906 posts)
16. OK, tell me how Bernie can miraculously overcome the math.
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:09 AM
Mar 2016

You must see that his odds are between slim and none.

 

KMOD

(7,906 posts)
21. Yeah, and the NY Jets would have won another
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:23 AM
Mar 2016

Super bowl by now,

It is what it is. Hillary will be the Democratic nominee.

I see no path forward for Bernie. If you do, please post it.

PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)
19. You're changing what's being discussed. We're discussing the probability of Hillary Clinton
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:19 AM
Mar 2016

being the Democratic Nominee. If Clinton isn't the nominee that doesn't necessarily mean
Sanders would be.

 

KMOD

(7,906 posts)
17. It's just not going to happen.
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:11 AM
Mar 2016

You can take that to the bank.

It's as silly as thinking she'll be abducted by aliens.

PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)
22. You seem to have a lack of real undertanding of probability. The probability...
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:24 AM
Mar 2016

of Hillary Clinton not being the nominee is likely many many many times greater than her
being abducted by aliens.

PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)
25. The Ivory Soap claim is 99.44% pure. So a Clinton nomination is apparently purer...
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:27 AM
Mar 2016

according to the OP.

 

basselope

(2,565 posts)
26. And there is a 100% chance that I won't vote for her
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:30 AM
Mar 2016

And a 0% chance she can win the general election.

It is what it is.

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)
42. And there is -0- chance that I would vote for BS
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 01:10 AM
Mar 2016

But alas, if the cards fall that way, I would. I guess that's what make us different.

 

basselope

(2,565 posts)
48. Yes.. beceause he is a good candidate
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 03:18 AM
Mar 2016

with a good record.

I just dont vote for republicans.

THATS what makes us different

 

highprincipleswork

(3,111 posts)
36. I'm not about the math. I'm about trying to do what's right and voting for same.
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 12:47 AM
Mar 2016

I don't know if that's a foreign concept around here, but there were golden ages of Democrats, around people like FDR and the Kennedys, when being a Democrat meant fighting for something profound for the average person.

Bobby Kennedy's death made me feel awful, because he was attracting so many people to his cause. And he had it all. He had the compassion and authenticity that I believe Bernie has. He had the toughness, and Bernie has shown himself to be pretty tough in his own way. But he also had the Kennedy name and more than a little touch of his own charisma.

But since Bobby, nobody has ignited a certain part of the Democratic base like Bernie Sanders. I'm not letting go of that excitement and that spirit and that feeling of going for what is right, not until and unless I have to.

And I hate to say it, if Hillary does not live up to enough of those more idealistic principles I'm talking about (much as Bill has failed to do so in the last years of his presidency and since), then I'm going to have a hard time voting for her. Not saying I won't. But I just hate voting against many of my best interests and for someone or something I don't believe in. Don't you?

I wish those in the Hillary camp could convince her and those of us who support Bernie that she will run anything like a Progressive campaign and run anything like a Progressive presidency.

 

highprincipleswork

(3,111 posts)
41. Cannot explain why they are so in the dark, but that is not going to change my sense of what is
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 01:01 AM
Mar 2016

right or my knowledge of history in the slightest.

I feel sure you will not appreciate that comment, but her winning can be explained by many other factors other than doing what is right for the Democratic Party or for the average person or for the country.

I am long since past the point where I am surprised that people can believe or be led to believe all sorts of very bad things. In fact, the good things have to be spoken for and stood for just as much as the lies (proven fact) to be effective. The only thing is, they are somewhat easier and more palatable to stand for. That is why we love standing for Bernie and he enjoys standing for us. We actually feel we are in it for something that is right and good.

You may feel that same way about Hillary, but I do hear all sorts of other arguments like
he can't accomplish what he's saying
she's the safer choice
who is he anyway?
he's a racist or sexist - this is Rovian bullshit
she has the numbers

Look at the start of the race, when she really had the numbers.

I'm interested in people, and in how they feel, and what is actually right for the majority of them. And that's why I support Bernie, and will do so till there is no purpose to it. Unfortunately, that could be a very long time.

4nic8em

(482 posts)
45. In that case...
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 02:13 AM
Mar 2016

If that's true, Then the overwhelming majority of Democrats want Trump for President.

It is what it isn't...

Art_from_Ark

(27,247 posts)
46. The majority of *ahem* Southern Democrats
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 03:00 AM
Mar 2016

Democrats who, for the most part, live in states that won't vote for the Democrat in the general election.

How many Democrats west of Kansas have been able to vote so far? Answer: Democrats in only two states so far-- Colorado and Nevada.

Despite your claim, Democrats in half the country have not been able to vote yet.

NJCher

(35,553 posts)
52. Excellent point, art
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 04:00 AM
Mar 2016

I had not thought about it that way before.

In light of what you say, then, why would any Democrat want to discount the votes in half the country? There is something fundamentally wrong with such a thinking process.

I also don't understand people who tell us what is going to happen and that it is what it is. I quit thinking that way a long time ago. About the time I feel certainty about anything, I find that life hands me a lesson telling me otherwise.

The truth of the matter is, it's hard to live with uncertainty.

Hmm, I think I just wrote myself into an explanation for a possible reason people do that.

Cher

 

Betty Karlson

(7,231 posts)
47. Given Nate Silver's credibility on 99% sure wins,
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 03:14 AM
Mar 2016

I'd say Sanders has a VERY good chance of becoming our nominee.

 

Jim Lane

(11,175 posts)
60. I'd put Clinton's chance lower, but even a very high probability isn't the same as certainty
Tue Mar 22, 2016, 02:19 PM
Mar 2016

Here's my post about a recent example, from Nate Silver's site.

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