There is a 99.99% chance that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Nominee.

[KMOD]

It is what it is.

[PoliticAverse]

1. 83.5% of all statistics are just made up. n/t

[revbones]

2. ^^ Awesome ^^ nt

[bkkyosemite]

3. How do you know. Have you met that IT guy?

[reformist2]

4. All Hillary's got left is the illusion of inevitability. On policy, she's awful.

[brooklynite]

12. Not, apparently to most Democrats.

[basselope]

28. MOST democrats haven't voted yet.

Luckily, the primaries are not just about the opinions of the small minority of the population that are "democrats"

[KMOD]

30. The Democratic primary is absolutely about Democrats.

Non Democrats can have their opinion in the General Election.

[PoliticAverse]

39. This would be news to the several states that have "open" primaries.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_primaries_in_the_United_States

[KMOD]

40. and yet,

she still has a million more votes than he does.

???

[basselope]

49. and yet the majority of states havent voted.

[John Poet]

53. On policy, Hillary's a fucking train wreck,

the kind of train wreck where, afterwards,
they go around and shoot the survivors.


'Who Would Hillary Bomb?'

[jillan]

5. There is a 99.9% chance that tomorrow is going to be Tuesday.

[AgerolanAmerican]

6. Whatever the actual number is

it precisely matches the probability that I will end up voting third party this year

[geek tragedy]

8. Good for you and your spiritual mentor Ralph Nader nt

[Beacool]

9. LOL!!!

[NurseJackie]

55. Awww.

[Codeine]

56. Then step off. nt

[KMOD]

7. lol

I thought you guys liked to deal with facts and reality.

So c'mon, prove me wrong.

[PoliticAverse]

14. Probabilities like this are not "facts", that's a fact. n/t

[KMOD]

16. OK, tell me how Bernie can miraculously overcome the math.

You must see that his odds are between slim and none.

[cherokeeprogressive]

18. If .01% separated slim and none we would still be crossing the ocean on wooden ships under sail.

[KMOD]

21. Yeah, and the NY Jets would have won another

Super bowl by now,

It is what it is. Hillary will be the Democratic nominee.

I see no path forward for Bernie. If you do, please post it.

[cherokeeprogressive]

35. Democracy.

[PoliticAverse]

19. You're changing what's being discussed. We're discussing the probability of Hillary Clinton

being the Democratic Nominee. If Clinton isn't the nominee that doesn't necessarily mean
Sanders would be.

[EndElectoral]

10. May be. Let's hope she's not indicted.

[KMOD]

13. You need to understand,

that is not going to happen.

[EndElectoral]

15. I can't predict the future or I would have never thought Bush would be a two term President

[KMOD]

17. It's just not going to happen.

You can take that to the bank.

It's as silly as thinking she'll be abducted by aliens.

[PoliticAverse]

22. You seem to have a lack of real undertanding of probability. The probability...

of Hillary Clinton not being the nominee is likely many many many times greater than her
being abducted by aliens.

[KMOD]

24. I agree.

She will be the nominee.

[OilemFirchen]

11. So...

a virtual tie.

[840high]

20. Gee - pure as Ivory soap.

[PoliticAverse]

25. The Ivory Soap claim is 99.44% pure. So a Clinton nomination is apparently purer...

according to the OP.

[840high]

50. LOL - of course.

[longship]

23. .

[basselope]

26. And there is a 100% chance that I won't vote for her

And a 0% chance she can win the general election.

It is what it is.

[Iliyah]

42. And there is -0- chance that I would vote for BS

But alas, if the cards fall that way, I would. I guess that's what make us different.

[basselope]

48. Yes.. beceause he is a good candidate

with a good record.

I just dont vote for republicans.

THATS what makes us different

[pa28]

27. 57 experts agree.

[Kip Humphrey]

29. WOW! We are in for the MOST EPIC FAIL OF ALL TIME!

It is what it is.

[KMOD]

32. Maybe you are,

but I'm not.

[highprincipleswork]

31. Here are some fighting words for ya. THOSE WERE THE ODDS IN MICHIGAN!!!

[KMOD]

33. Yeah, but math.

Tell me his path to win. I promise, if you present it, I'll listen.

[highprincipleswork]

36. I'm not about the math. I'm about trying to do what's right and voting for same.

I don't know if that's a foreign concept around here, but there were golden ages of Democrats, around people like FDR and the Kennedys, when being a Democrat meant fighting for something profound for the average person.

Bobby Kennedy's death made me feel awful, because he was attracting so many people to his cause. And he had it all. He had the compassion and authenticity that I believe Bernie has. He had the toughness, and Bernie has shown himself to be pretty tough in his own way. But he also had the Kennedy name and more than a little touch of his own charisma.

But since Bobby, nobody has ignited a certain part of the Democratic base like Bernie Sanders. I'm not letting go of that excitement and that spirit and that feeling of going for what is right, not until and unless I have to.

And I hate to say it, if Hillary does not live up to enough of those more idealistic principles I'm talking about (much as Bill has failed to do so in the last years of his presidency and since), then I'm going to have a hard time voting for her. Not saying I won't. But I just hate voting against many of my best interests and for someone or something I don't believe in. Don't you?

I wish those in the Hillary camp could convince her and those of us who support Bernie that she will run anything like a Progressive campaign and run anything like a Progressive presidency.

[KMOD]

38. The overwhelming majority of Democrats

are backing and voting for Hillary.

[highprincipleswork]

41. Cannot explain why they are so in the dark, but that is not going to change my sense of what is

right or my knowledge of history in the slightest.

I feel sure you will not appreciate that comment, but her winning can be explained by many other factors other than doing what is right for the Democratic Party or for the average person or for the country.

I am long since past the point where I am surprised that people can believe or be led to believe all sorts of very bad things. In fact, the good things have to be spoken for and stood for just as much as the lies (proven fact) to be effective. The only thing is, they are somewhat easier and more palatable to stand for. That is why we love standing for Bernie and he enjoys standing for us. We actually feel we are in it for something that is right and good.

You may feel that same way about Hillary, but I do hear all sorts of other arguments like
he can't accomplish what he's saying
she's the safer choice
who is he anyway?
he's a racist or sexist - this is Rovian bullshit
she has the numbers

Look at the start of the race, when she really had the numbers.

I'm interested in people, and in how they feel, and what is actually right for the majority of them. And that's why I support Bernie, and will do so till there is no purpose to it. Unfortunately, that could be a very long time.

[KMOD]

44. We are not in the dark,

We simply don't agree with you.

[highprincipleswork]

54. Have you checked this out recently? You're in favor?

Just the latest in a long string of hits.

[4nic8em]

45. In that case...

If that's true, Then the overwhelming majority of Democrats want Trump for President.

It is what it isn't...

[Art_from_Ark]

46. The majority of *ahem* Southern Democrats

Democrats who, for the most part, live in states that won't vote for the Democrat in the general election.

How many Democrats west of Kansas have been able to vote so far? Answer: Democrats in only two states so far-- Colorado and Nevada.

Despite your claim, Democrats in half the country have not been able to vote yet.

[NJCher]

52. Excellent point, art

I had not thought about it that way before.

In light of what you say, then, why would any Democrat want to discount the votes in half the country? There is something fundamentally wrong with such a thinking process.

I also don't understand people who tell us what is going to happen and that it is what it is. I quit thinking that way a long time ago. About the time I feel certainty about anything, I find that life hands me a lesson telling me otherwise.

The truth of the matter is, it's hard to live with uncertainty.

Hmm, I think I just wrote myself into an explanation for a possible reason people do that.

Cher

[steve2470]

34. hey DU sis!

Last edited Tue Mar 22, 2016, 11:54 AM - Edit history (1)

Good to see you again!

(brain fart re: sl lol )

[KMOD]

37. Hello my sweet brother,

I've missed you!!

[Iliyah]

43. K & R

Go Hillary!

[Betty Karlson]

47. Given Nate Silver's credibility on 99% sure wins,

I'd say Sanders has a VERY good chance of becoming our nominee.

[DemocracyDirect]

51. Keep telling yourself that if you feel so scared to...

Let the rest of us vote.

[VulgarPoet]

57. Then America deserves what it gets. nt

[DrDan]

58. a veritable bernie-math tie

[BernieforPres2016]

59. There's a 100% chance I'll never see another post of yours nt

[Jim Lane]

60. I'd put Clinton's chance lower, but even a very high probability isn't the same as certainty

Here's my post about a recent example, from Nate Silver's site.

[pdsimdars]

61. Let's hope it is the same 99% that she won Michigan by.