Message auto-removed

[Name removed]

[merrily]

1. Heaven knows, I hope he's right, but I am not going to take Nate Silver or his site to the bank.

[NWCorona]

2. Right!

We can't have it both ways.

But if he's right I'll gladly take it!

[JimDandy]

7. Would be great, but it's unlikely.

AZ is more likely to go for Clinton than Sanders being that it is a closed primary and has a huge elderly population. Silver's prediction is not a good bet.

[Gore1FL]

28. I am not sure "closed" and "elderly" are inherent issues. n/t

[JimDandy]

62. Those are THE 2 deciding factors in that state-both of which favor Clinton.

[brush]

71. Yep, he's wrong again. Clinton just won Arizona, one of the eight states he said BS would win

Seems Silver has lost his touch.

[theaocp]

3. Typo?

I'm in Michigan and voted, but it wasn't a caucus. Not that it makes much difference, but it caught my eye.

[cosmicone]

4. Winning states has ZERO value now

He has to win by a minimum of 58% of the vote or it is a loss.

[cosmicone]

17. He won't be in the GE -- that's the point!

[cosmicone]

42. Naw ... you jest

[greymouse]

30. GE

Laugh if Hillary gets the nomination, cosmicone, cry because then Trump will be elected.

[cosmicone]

44. Is that a threat?

Bernie will be shredded by Trump as a Castro and Ortega sympathizer, Russian honeymooner commie out to tax and spend to hand out free stuff.

Only Hillary is capable of defeating any Repuke on the ballot. Unless of course people like you wish that the democrats would lose -- but then, you probably voted for Nader and Ron Paul.

[anothergreenbus]

59. Clintonites better start begging for our support.

Personally, I will need to see a concrete pledge to block the TPP.

[cosmicone]

61. Thank you low post count person

Welcome to DU. Enjoy your stay.

[Codeine]

25. Really? Bernie's gonna turn Utah and Wyoming blue?

And Alaska too? Y'all are too damned much.

[greymouse]

31. Utah

Mormons despise Trump.

[cosmicone]

45. I know huh?

Sometimes the jokes just write themselves....

[HERVEPA]

64. and sometime th jokes post.

[Gore1FL]

32. The delegates that he gets will count.

Hillary may very well be the nominee. I think it's awesome that more people get to cast their vote.

Democracy in action is much cooler than coronations of royal families.

[cosmicone]

47. Those Bernie delegates will get a trip to Philadelphia

and will get to watch Hillary being nominated.

Come to think of it .... there is merit to what you're saying

[Gore1FL]

56. It's important that everyone have their say and that the delegates play their respective roles.

If you actually relish the idea of being a sore winner, there is nothing I can add or detract.

[elias7]

41. Why so negative? Hillary's got 58% of delegates so far

It's a good race, why so interested in calling it so quickly?

[cosmicone]

46. Because I have no interest in watching an exercise in futility n/t

[Gore1FL]

58. Then why post flamebait including but not limited to your tagline?

You are crying out for an exercise in futility.

[Logical]

48. LOL, you really are just fucking with us, right? No one can really post this BS. nt

[cosmicone]

49. It is the truth

If Bernie wins all the remaining states 56-44, he will STILL be short of delegates for a majority.

Math is your friend!

[noretreatnosurrender]

5. Don't Care

I really don't care what Nate Silver thinks.

[noretreatnosurrender]

15. Glad

I could assist.

[Punkingal]

6. It would be nice to win Arizona tonight.

[JimDandy]

12. It would, but realistically it's unlikely. I also think HI is up in the air.

The 6 other states are good bets, though.

[Cali_Democrat]

9. Winning states means nothing.

It's all about the delegates.

This is why Bernie will not get the nomination. His campaign doesn't seem to understand how to actually win the nomination. They think winning states and setting the media narrative is what will get him the nomination. This is foolish. The only thing that matters is winning delegates.

It doesn't matter if he wins Oklahoma and Kansas, but then gets blown out in Florida by 30 points.

[Cali_Democrat]

19. Hillary has won more blue states than Bernie....

....states that went for Obama in 2008 and 2012.

[Codeine]

27. The difference is less red/blue than black/white.

The whiter the state the better Bernie does. I don't think losing the bedrock base of the party is a laudable thing.

[greymouse]

33. if the "bedrock base of the party"

is in states that vote red in the general, it doesn't matter which Dem wins them in the primaries/caucuses.

Waiting to hear that this is a racist remark in 1...2...3...

[Codeine]

36. They're Democratic voters. they get their say in who our nominee is

regardless of where they reside. If you want to be the Democratic Party nominee you need to draw a significant portion of the African-American vote. You don't get to discount them and their votes because they live in the south.

. . .it doesn't matter which Dem wins them in the primaries/caucuses.

It certainly does, as Senator Sanders has most assuredly come to realize.

[elias7]

43. They're just not as smart as you

"They think winning states and setting the media narrative is what will get him the nomination"

How do you know this?

[Blue_In_AK]

11. I'll be surprised if he takes Arizona.

The rest, most likely.

[Bleacher Creature]

14. Is this satire, or just misleading?

First, Nate Silver said no such thing. If you go through the article, you can actually figure that out. In fact, the article acknowledges that he's behind in AZ, but dismisses it because Sanders has held rallies in the state since the last polls came out. It's beyond laughable.

Second, even if Sanders pulls off an upset in AZ, it's almost certainly not going to be a big enough win to make up any ground.

Third, none of the other states mentioned have enough delegates to really move the needle.

And finally, this article was posted yesterday and rightfully mocked. If it's the best people have, I think it's a good sign that things aren't going their way. . .

[kristopher]

18. It's estimated that about half voted early.

[Bleacher Creature]

24. Again, reading is fundamental.

Let me spell it out. The article is lying when it says that Nate is predicting a Sanders win in Arizona.

The problem has nothing to do with his track record.

[onenote]

65. Or you could read the articles you post and make a judgment as to

whether the headline accurately reflects the article.


Just saying.

[Codeine]

29. The problem is Nate Silver has made no such claim. nt

[Hortensis]

20. "Hillary Clinton is lucky to be challenged by Bernie Sanders."

Interesting podcast from 1 day ago: The New Yorker’s David Remnick moderates a conversation with three great political minds: Amy Davidson and Kelefa Sanneh, of The New Yorker, and FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver. They discuss the rise of Donald Trump, what it means for the future of the Republican Party, his chances of winning the general election, and why Hillary Clinton is lucky to be challenged by Bernie Sanders.

http://www.newyorker.com/podcast/political-scene/nate-silver-amy-davidson-and-kelefa-sanneh-on-the-election

I like the New Yorker. It assumes some sophistication.

[Sheepshank]

22. He would have to win 100% of the votes to almost catch up to Hillarys delegate count

Fat chance of taking the delegate lead...then we are back to Hillary territory.

[Gore1FL]

38. That is not mathematically accurate, even with generous rounding errors. n/t

[Sheepshank]

40. I admit to a slight exaggeration....but he'd have to get

Almost 60% of the vote in 100% of the remaining states.

[Android3.14]

34. It's like currency trading

When one model fails, find another model. That's the thing I like about his method. It trends towards accuracy without pretending to be accurate.

[Sky Masterson]

35. Which is why he should drop out!

I kid.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

39. How come I can't find anything that says this on the FiveThirtyEight blog?

In fact this is the only thing I find about upcoming primaries (4th paragraph down)

Utah and Arizona vote today, in the first Tuesday in several Tuesdays to not earn a distinctive superlative from folks like me. Trump has a 92 percent chance of winning in Arizona, according to our polls-plus model. Cruz has a 98 percent chance of winning Utah. And we don’t have a forecast for how Democrats in Arizona and Utah will vote because, well, Democrats in Arizona and Utah? We’re not wizards, people. (Seriously, though, it’s because there haven’t been enough polls of Democrats in those states.)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/significant-digits-for-tuesday-march-22-2016/

[Adrahil]

53. 'Cause Silver said no such thing. :). NT

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

54. I know

But someone posted it on the internets. It had to be true.

[Adrahil]

55. I figured you did. ;). NT

[Bleacher Creature]

50. Kicking for exposure.

The AP just called Arizona for Clinton.

[Dawson Leery]

51. Well he just lost one of the 8 he was supposed to win.

[workinclasszero]

52. Whoops!

[Dawson Leery]

57. Perhaps Berns fan club would like to "unskew" the actual vote?

[workinclasszero]

60. Well it is a virtual tie

[Bleacher Creature]

66. If you count only bumper stickers, Bernie's got it in the bag!

[workinclasszero]

67. And don't forget the all important rallies!

[Bleacher Creature]

68. Definitely forgot the rallies.

Did you read the article in the OP? It's obviously garbage, but hysterical nonetheless. My favorite part:

"The only state that I have omitted so far is Arizona, which is on the same date as the Idaho and Utah primaries. In Arizona, according to Nate Silver’s prediction – Bernie Sanders has a 40% chance of winning. These predictions however, were made a couple of weeks ago, before Sanders held multiple rallies in the state, before he invested over 1.5 million dollars in ads and before polls emerged showing Sanders rapidly closing the gap. The incorporation of all these influences means that Sanders has a far better chance of winning Arizona now than he did when Silver’s predictions were made."

[workinclasszero]

70. Talk about a

[onenote]

63. Of course Silver never said such a thing

Just a headline writer with an agenda.

Event the story acknowledges that Silver still has Clinton a heavy favorite to win Arizona. It is only the writer's speculation, not anything coming from Silver, that suggested otherwise.

Don't believe everything you read on the interwebs.

[Beacool]

69. Where's Nate Silver's article?

I can't find a link to this supposed article of his.

BTW, Hillary just won AZ by 61%. Even if Sanders won every single caucus state and got every delegate (an impossibility), he would still not be ahead in pledged delegates.