Real Time Polling (Good and Bad) – Obscuring Reality and the Issues Like Day Trading

[TomCADem]

Nate Silver in his book The Signal and the Noise discusses the proliferation of real time polling data and on Jon Stewart he compared it to the advent of real time stock quotes.

This reminded me of the late 1990s and early 2000s when websites that easily allowed people to both get real time stock quotes and execute trades began to appear. Stock market gurus began to appear. Folks began to follow the DOW religiously and the practice of day trading began to be embraced my many. Stocks were traded and sold in lightening speed based on predictions regarding where the price would go in the next few minutes. The stock indexes fluctuated wildily. The story became the changes in stock price, rather than the actual success of weakness of the businesses operations. So, in the end despite the appearance of having MORE data, many folks did not profit and, in fact, lost money day trading despite the ability to receive real time stock price updates.

I think that the recent availability and obsession with polling data, both good and bad, mirrors the day trading days of the 1990s and early 2000s. There is so much more data out there. This data is driven by the small subset of folks who actually take the time to respond to, rather than hang up, on pollsters. This data is then spewed out and reported in real time. The news media compounds the paranoia and obsession by breathlessly giving real time updates of this same polling data. This news regarding polling data begins to crowd out actual discussions of the issues, statements and contradictions made by the candidates.

We see this on DU. Polls both good and bad are spammed on discussion threads. There is more data out there, but that does not mean that people are more informed. To the contrary, the proliferation and obsession with polling data is actually obscuring and crowding out an actual discussion of the actual issues that actually affect voters.

[bemildred]

1. Good analogy (day trading).

Or sports statistics.

Grovelling over the past to predict the future, which works great, except when you really need it, when things are really going to change. Then, it leaves you blind as a bat with no ears.

But it makes a great racket.

[TomCADem]

2. Reminds my of a minor foray into day trading. So, much (useless) data

There was so much data about a stock and I was somewhat familiar with the product it sold. It was trading at a low share price and I watched the quotes a few days. The price was low, but then it started to tick up upon the release of a new product. So, I bought it. About a week later, the company went bankrupt. So, minor variations in day to day stock price told me nothing about the true state of the company.

[bemildred]

3. Yep. That's it.

When you really get creamed is when you think you have it all figured out. Like Rmoney and Libya.