If you believe PPP state polls, Iowa is +6 Republican compared to Ohio

[geek tragedy]

Iowa is ALWAYS more Democratic than Ohio.

[RandySF]

1. In terms of registration?

Yeeeaahhh that does sound a bit off. But Iowa is not the liberal state it used to be.

[geek tragedy]

10. PPP has Ohio +5 Obama, Iowa +1 Romney.

2008: Obama won Iowa by nearly 10 points, won Ohio by 4-5
2004: Bush won Ohio by 2 points, won Iowa by less than 1
2000: Gore won Iowa by 1, lost Ohio by 4

[Maximumnegro]

2. The early vote tallies are

running ahead of 2008 at this time with Dems 20pts ahead so...

[Jennicut]

3. Obama won Iowa by nearly 10 points in 2008.

He won Ohio by over 4 points.

Iowa should be polling better then Ohio and in NBC/WSJ/Marist it is, 6% to 8%.

[RandySF]

7. No, I think Ohio has really warmed up to Obama.

You can't underestimate what the auto bailout meant to everyone.

[Maximumnegro]

11. Yeah Ohio is a separate

entity altogether from the rest of the midwest in terms of economy, jobs, and demographcs.

[TroyD]

4. Is that a PPP poll that just came out?

Or is that their Party ID for the state?

[RandySF]

5. Don't hate on PPP too much.

They caught a lot of flack for their polling in 2010 and they turned out to be right. I did read somewhere that the firm was having a hard time weighting their samples. Whatever it is, it's probably an outler like Zogby having O up by 3 in Florida.

[Jennicut]

9. NBC/WSJ/Marist weighted

their samples as +2 D in Iowa and +5 D in Wisconsin.

Ohio was weighted +6 D in their Ohio poll, I believe.

[franklin200]

14. Were R leaning in 2010

Actually they missed quite a few races in 2010. Most of their senate polls were too favorable to republicans. Their final polls had Angle, Buck, and Rossi all winning.

[WI_DEM]

6. So Romney has a 1-point lead in Iowa,too, per PPP? do they give any

early vote numbers because in every other poll Obama is killing in early voting.

[Blaukraut]

8. 66/32 early voting advantage for O, according to their tweet n/t

[WI_DEM]

18. With that kind of advantage and Romney is still one-point up

obviously the didn't get as many early voters as NBC-Marist did. They said 34% of their sample already voted.

[Maximumnegro]

12. and running ahead of 2008

it looks like.

[progressivebydesign]

13. without knowing if this is a Likely Voter poll, or what their sampling is, it's useless. nt

[woolldog]

15. of course it's a likely voter poll.

All polls right now are LV.

[aaaaaa5a]

16. Ohio is the more important number.

Remember electoral math: Ohio + Nevada=270


People keep talking about Iowa as a part of the firewall. This is wrong. The last part of the firewall is Nevada.



Ohio+Wisconsin+Iowa= 4 more years

OR

Ohio+Wisconsin+Nevada= 4more years

[Maximumnegro]

21. Yep!

[LisaL]

17. I don't believe.

Early voting numbers look similar to 2008 in terms of party affiliation. And I presume Obama gets most democrats (all polls seem to show that).

[Mr.Turnip]

19. Don't discount this or the Marist poll.

Id bet money that Obama is ahead in Iowa but I don't think its as big as margin as in Marist.

[Jennicut]

20. Exactly.

I see it as Obama ahead by about 4 in Iowa, which is pretty good.