Bernie Sanders is currently NOT winning the Democratic primary, and I can prove it to you.

[JaneyVee]

Denial is powerful. The extent to which the human mind can conjure up scenarios besides the one we don’t want to see is impressive, the result of some weird psychological glitch that probably evolved as a way of allowing us to keep our sanity. I don’t know; I’m not an evolutionary psychologist.

What I am is a dude who spends a lot of time looking at poll numbers, and particularly poll numbers related to the 2016 nomination contests. I am the author of various articles assessing the chances of Sen. Bernie Sanders in the Democratic iteration thereof; those articles come to the conclusion that Hillary Clinton is very, very likely to be the party’s nominee. It’s a simple function of math. Sanders needs to win a lot of states with a lot of delegates by a lot of points -- something that he’s so far shown no ability to do. He needs to win about three-quarters of the remaining delegates. Unless deus emerges from the machina, he will not.

But that’s me looking at things objectively. I suspect that Seth Abramson — a University of New Hampshire English professor and author of “Bernie Sanders Is Currently Winning the Democratic Primary Race, and I’ll Prove It to You” — is not considering the race from the same space.

Abramson’s “proof” consists of the following argument. Actually, Bernie Sanders has more support from Democrats. It’s just that no one knows who he is. So Hillary Clinton banks a lot of early votes. But then they hear about Sanders and prefer him, and that’s why voting on Election Day favors Sanders. So, really, Sanders is preferred.

The only problem with this is all of the parts.

The rest: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/23/sorry-bernie-supporters-your-candidate-is-not-currently-winning-the-democratic-primary-race/?tid=sm_tw

[upaloopa]

1. I just thought about the fact that the CA primary is June 7th. The convention is the week of July 25

So we will know for sure by June 7th that Bernie does not have enough delegates to win the nomination since he can't possibly win 70% of the remaining delegates.

We have closed primaries in large states coming up in April. Bernie only wins when independents are voting in our primaries and usually in caucuses.

So what will the this board be like for the weeks between the CA primary and the convention if Bernie is staying in until the convention?

Will reality prevail or will some blog poster still tell us Bernie is winning?

[Hortensis]

8. Well, my guess is they'll still be arguing about how

Hillary has "Bernie's" superdelegates. And of course, someone could argue that Bernie has some of "Hillary's"from states she got a majority vote in. Probably quarreling over disposition of those null sets could keep them busy for a month or so.

[Dawgs]

2. LOL!

Someone needs to tell the writer of that garbage that one's person opinion is not ALL Bernie supporters. I guarantee that 95%+ of Bernie supporters know that he's not currently winning.

[JaneyVee]

3. Meanwhile, it was posted like 8x yesterday on DU.

Soooo....

[Dawgs]

5. And...

I said 95%+, which leaves plenty in the additional 5% that disagree.

[JaneyVee]

10. You forgot to include all the posters in agreement...

On those op's.

[Dawgs]

11. Um, 5% of ALL Bernie supporters I think cover the few in agreement on these ops. n/t

[randome]

4. I'd bet you're right, too.

There is a lot of wasted energy on both sides to 'convince' the other side. If that energy isn't going to be put to good use, then we may as well all sit back and see what the totals are at the end.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]TECT in the name of the Representative approves of this post.[/center][/font][hr]

[Gothmog]

6. Denial is not just a river in Africa

According to Predictwise, Sanders has a 5% chance of being the nominee http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination

[Orsino]

7. Hell, I thought the delegate counts were proof enough.

Abramson may have honest intentions, and has a real point, but the leap to a Sanders "lead" is weird.

[mcar]

9. Good read

Thanks.

[Doctor_J]

12. That is bad for the party and the country, but I can see why you're happy

We get it. You prefer a right wing woman with a long history of corruption and lack of morals to a liberal white male. Not something that a Democrat should be bragging about IMO, but the choice is yours

[eomer]

13. Bernie needs to win about 58% of the remaining pledged delegates.

Bernie's path to the nomination is to win a majority of the pledged delegates that are selected by the primary election and then for the super delegates to do what they have always done before: ratify the choice of the voters.

A majority is 2,026 of the 4,051 total pledged delegates. The current count is Hillary 1,228 and Bernie 934. So Bernie needs 1,092 out of the remaining 1,889, which is 57.8%.