Analysis: Why Winning California Will Not Be Easy For Bernie Sanders

[bravenak]

But organizing a state with more than 7.4 million Democrats — and an additional 4.1 million nonpartisan voters who can cast Democratic ballots this year — is a giant exercise unlike any Sanders has pulled off in the campaign so far, as he conceded in Wednesday’s interview.

Essentially he is trying to do what Barack Obama could not do in his 2008 primary battle here with Clinton — and doing it without Obama’s strength among African American voters.

"Her coalition is very similar to what it was in 2008," said Bill Burton, an Obama campaign aide in 2008 and now a California-based Clinton backer. "And she’ll probably do so much better than she did with African Americans, now that President Obama isn’t in the race."

Arizona, where Clinton won on Tuesday, is a far smaller state than California, though its demographic makeup is somewhat similar. The results there were not good news for the Vermont senator — particularly if they are replicated to the west.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-california-primary-20160324-story.html

[HumanityExperiment]

1. June 7th....

Gives some perspective to the article, take into account that by June 7th what is stated as improbable could be possible

Message matters and the more time Bernie has to get his message out and inform voters, the more voters he gains

[bravenak]

14. That's what I hear every time

He rarely reaches the hype

[HumanityExperiment]

25. then you have nothing to fear...

but these OPs keep popping up that concern Bernie needs to end campaign, that he's too far behind, that this or that isn't possible or 'insert meme' here

GL to ya, I'm not fearful of outcome or the challenge ahead but I would bet that you are...

[bravenak]

26. My op does not say drop out

[HumanityExperiment]

28. yeah, sure...

it's just more troll bait in that direction but dress it up anyway you'd like to justify it... makes no difference to me

[bravenak]

30. Umm hmm

[HumanityExperiment]

35. Have a good day!

GL with your meme

[upaloopa]

37. By the time June 7 comes Bernie will need 90% of the vote to catch up

Did you forget the math or are you just ignoring it?

[Thinkingabout]

79. I am thinking you are correct, the percentage goes up for Sanders.

[HumanityExperiment]

82. you assume linear from this point on...

odd that if Bernie makes strides like he did this past tuesday that trajectory changes so there is that...

Math... I get it...

[upaloopa]

83. No not true. These are proportional promaries. Both candidates pic up delegates. Before Tuesday

Bernie needed 65% of all remaining delegates. He didn't do that. I think he got 6 more than Hillary or barly over 50%. So now he needs more than 65%. Maybe 70%. When he doesn't do that it goes up again. By the time NY and PA vote which he won't win or come close it will more out of the realm of possibility than it is now. He is running out of states and out of possible delegates.

Your side just doesn't want to face reality.

[HumanityExperiment]

84. Reality?....

We're facing it, you do realize where and how far this has come from since last Sept.?

There is palatable fear from HRC supporters with all this effort and OPs being put out here, this OP is just another example of that

Let Bernie run out the states, if your candidate is so 'destined' then why all these OPs against Bernie?

Math, we get it, problem you have is allowing Bernie to complete this run and you know it

Buckle up butter cup, this ride has a ways to go

[LanternWaste]

108. I pretend analysis is fear too if my biases compel me...

I pretend analysis is palatable fear too if my biases compel me, despite it meaning nothing and being little more than an supported allegation, it certainly strokes our spins. And that's the important thing.

[LonePirate]

2. April 19 and April 26 are more important dates right now than June 7

Sanders has to perform well and win multiple states on those dates or June 7 will not matter.

[bravenak]

15. I am voting this Sat

But I still know that there are WAY more delegates in Cali and Penn and NY. She is ahead of him there and he is not bringing it. And While Cali allows indies in, not every state coming up does. That is a big issue for him.

[ThePhilosopher04]

3. I thought the race was over? Why are you bothering posting about California?

[bravenak]

16. It is. I was born there.

Makes sense to post about it.

[ThePhilosopher04]

95. I think you're scared. And for good reason.

[bravenak]

99. Why the fuck would I be scared?

[DCBob]

4. Arizona is good indicator of what will happen in CA.

Hillary should do well or at least well enough to keep Sanders from making any big gains.

[whatchamacallit]

5. You mean mayhem and fraud?

[DCBob]

6. I was referring to demographics.

I am sure you knew that already.

[sufrommich]

7. Are you accusing the Clinton campaign of mayhem and fraud

in Arizona?

[Agschmid]

9. I'm sure they are...

[blueintelligentsia]

18. Or are they?

[Agschmid]

19. Ask them.

[blueintelligentsia]

94. I'm not going to ask them based on a blanket accusation...

Not all Bernie Supports think the same way, I pointed out that Republican leaders were to blame from the beginning.

[jfern]

32. Don't worry, California has way more voting places

And the most convenient thing is to be a permanent absentee voter and just drop your ballot off at a polling place before the polls close.

[sweetloukillbot]

59. Arizona has those too, they just figured more people were using them...

I know I will be from now on...

[thesquanderer]

10. Supposedly the election day voting in AZ favored Sanders...

...but all the early voting skewed things to Clinton. Absentee ballots there are accepted up to 90 days before the election, so many of those votes could have been cast quite some time ago, before numerous debates, ads, campaign events, Sanders victories in other places, etc. I don't know how far in advance people can vote in CA, but Sanders has to hope that people are waiting long enough to be able to give him full consideration.

[bravenak]

17. I agree

And I think she will take the bulk of NY too. His chance has pretty much passed.

[choie]

58. You sure do post a lot about a candidate

whose "chance has pretty much passed"

[bravenak]

61. People need to not obsess over my posting habits and mind their own

[choie]

64. Do you ever listen to yourself?

[bravenak]

65. Still here?

[choie]

66. Yup and will be

No matter how obnoxious posters get

[bravenak]

68. Yep. Me too. Anything else?

[choie]

69. Oh Yes, I sure do

But I'll refrain for fear of being banned.

[bravenak]

70. Best that you do. Done yet?

[choie]

71. Considering my record is clean

Unlike others, I don't need a finger wagging from you.

[bravenak]

73. Means nothing

I do not care about your record or even think about you at all.

[choie]

75. The feeling is mutual - off to ignore you go

You've impinged on my enjoyment of this site long enough.

[bravenak]

77. I am pleased

[George II]

8. Let's take a look at the states that each candidate has won.....

Of the states that have had primaries, Clinton has won 13 of the 14 largest states, her only loss being Michigan which she lost by a mere 1.6%, less than 19,000 votes.

Clinton and Sanders have split the six smallest primary states.

As far as caucus states are concerned, Sanders has won 7 of the 9, Clinton 2. Five of Sanders' caucus state wins have been in the five smallest states.

Without even getting into the demographics of the states, Sanders' strength appears to be the smaller (mostly rural) primary states and caucus states.

Clinton's strength is the larger, more urban states.

That bodes well for Clinton in California, Pennsylvania, New York, and New Jersey - the four biggest states yet to vote, worth a total of 1037 delegates.

[bravenak]

20. I agree

Him winning small population states has not kept him up with her. Add the superdelegates, who count regardless of what THEY think, his chances are as grim as death. No way to make that up.

[mcar]

41. Remember: if it's in the South, it doesn't count

You may have to adjust your numbers.

[RobertEarl]

113. The south is messed up

Too conservative, too much confederacy left.

It wasn't by accident the federal government had to pass special laws to ensure the right to vote in the south.

Then there are all the voting problems in the south led by the Florida 2000 debacle, the black boxes of Georgia and South Carolina and the fact that just 13% of the voters in SC even voted in the primary.

The south had a very large voice this year and it shouldn't have. More needs to be done in the south and the party failed at getting the job done. Or did it? If the job was to ensure Hillary won the south, well, then, maybe the job was done?

[mcar]

114. How about the idea that there are Democrats who live in the South

and we have the right to a primary vote.

The South is a cesspool, in places, of far right. But that has absolutely nothing to do with the primaries. I don't understand why people done get that.

[LiberalFighter]

111. They key with rural states is that they are more sparsely populated.

[ismnotwasm]

11. K&R

[nc4bo]

12. Absolutely nothing about Sanders' campaign run would be easy. Only an idiot would think otherwise.

But the once 4% candidate, in 10-11 months has done the nearly impossible.

He was never thought of as a threat, was never taken seriously with media all but ignoring him and has outperformed beyond imagination.

Win or lose Bernie is a grand champion of the 99%. He brought us all together, now that we've seen each other's faces and felt one another's presence, we KNOW we are not a tiny minority.

Time to donate!

[bravenak]

13. Understandable that you feel that way

[blueintelligentsia]

21. Luckily CA is a modified closed primary meaning...

Democrats and independent registered voters can vote in the primary, whereas Republicans can only vote Republican. Getting 70% of the independent vote will greatly help his chances at winning the state.

[bravenak]

22. If he gets that

Need to take into account that she beats him with latinos and blacks and that Cali is no longer a majority white state.

[blueintelligentsia]

23. He'll do very well in northern california and most of LA

Areas where he might not are Orange County, San Diego, and Sacramento.

[bravenak]

24. Not necessarily since LA has alot of hispanics and blacks

There is Oakland, Richmond, and if you look at the numbers, she gets a bunch of white Female voters. And she is still polling ahead. He would need to ROCK it since he will lose NY and Penn. and those are delegate rich states. We have no winner take alls. He does not merely need to win, byt to win so sugnificantly that he makes up those losses. As it is he has yet to make up for previous losses. And superdelegates count.

[blueintelligentsia]

56. Well Oakland...

Ranks fourth highest per-capita campaign contributions to Bernie Sanders. Let's focus on CA since that's what your post is about.


http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/seattle-is-berning-nations-biggest-donors-per-capita/

[bravenak]

63. Oakland is in California

I have folks living there.

[blueintelligentsia]

91. Oakland's in CA, whaaa?

I have friends living there.

[bravenak]

93. Of course it is in Cali.

[blueintelligentsia]

96. *sarcasm* What was your point?

[bravenak]

98. Trying to figure what your point was

[blueintelligentsia]

102. Which point? Independents? Minority vote? Oakland being in CA?

[bravenak]

104. I am alerting admin

[upaloopa]

27. Not to mention that I will phone bank for Hillary in my county of Santa Barbara

[bravenak]

29. Yeah!!!! Good work!

I know my homestate won't let me down.

[cosmicone]

31. By June 7th, Californians will be asking "Bernie who?" n/t

[bravenak]

33. And we will hear the outrage about how they don't really count

[cosmicone]

34. Here is the thing .....

California businesses from Tech companies to Hollywood to lumber and agriculture depend heavily upon exports.

They won't like Bernie's "over my dead body" opposition to the TPP and would want a trade agreement.

Bernie is extremely vulnerable on this in export oriented economies.

[bravenak]

36. He sure is

With his opposition to import export banks, many workers will not want to lose work over that stubborness.

[upaloopa]

40. Many people here remember Bernie saying immigrants take work from Americans

I was the controller of the largest labor contractor in the San Joaquin Valley.

In my three years there I never saw an Anglo apply to pick fruit and vegetables.

[cosmicone]

42. +1,000,000 n/t

[upaloopa]

67. I applied to the United Farm Workers headquarters in Keene, as a accountant after that position and

they were going to hire me. I could not pay my bills and house payment on what they could afford to pay me but it would have been an interesting job. I could have met some important people and had the inside view on the labor movement.


My feeling is that Bernie doesn't resonate with the farm workers struggles just as he doesn't get support from other minorities.

[cosmicone]

72. Bernie's experience with the real world

is very Vermont-centric and his ideas about minorities are stereotypical.

That is why his comment of black kids hanging on street corners who will benefit from his one-solution-fits-all plan. He also doesn't understand the gun control issue at all. He sees it from the Vermont hunters' perspective.

I bet even Trump has a better understanding of the struggles of immigrants and other minorities because he grew up in NY and has a lot of employees who are minorities.

[basselope]

48. And yet most Californians are against it.

Its funny how we put others above ourselves.

But, then we didn't send kids off to a war we knew was a lie.

[cosmicone]

49. Most Californians are not against it

and when commercials appear educating them, the results would be disastrous for Bernie.

[basselope]

51. Yes, they are.

BOTH candidates for Senate are against it. Jerry Brown certainly didn't do anything to support it.

And while the corporate controlled wing of the democratic party has been pushing it, which is why we see newspaper editorials SCREAMING at Californias they should get behind it.. WE aren't.

Hollywood is against it. Silicon Valley is against it.

Of the 53 congressional representatives from California 38 of them voted AGAINST the TPP

http://www.whatthefolly.com/2015/06/18/list-of-208-members-of-congress-who-voted-against-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp-fast-track-authority/

as did Barbra Boxer.


So.. no.. sorry to burst you little TPP bubble, but that is one giant losing issue here.


But, wait, isn't Hillary AGAINST the TPP this week????

[Jackie Wilson Said]

38. In the face of a possible Donald Trump or Ted Cruz White House, I am amazed

any on the "so called" left have the energy or time to argue about Hillary vs Bernie.



I understand why some non Bernie fans are pissed and they have every right to be, (I say non Bernie because they arent automatically Hillary fans just because they dont care for Bernie) but the enemy is the GOP, believe that.

I just hope all the Bernie fans can see that.

[bravenak]

39. I hope they see that too

We want to beat Trump. Look at him.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

43. I predict Trump will be replaced by Paul Ryan.

[bravenak]

44. I hope so so they can have their own 1968

And spend twenty years in irrelevancy.

[basselope]

52. Clinton lost my vote forever when she voted for the war.

There is no planet in which I cast a vote for her.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

53. Trump or Cruz will be happy to hear you are making it easier for them to destroy the planet

[basselope]

60. As if Clinton won't do the same.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. Demographically CA is HRC's wheelhouse...

Most of the key elected Democratic officeholder are establishment Democrats like Hillary:


Jerry Brown
Gavin Newsom
Baraba Boxer
Dianne Feinstein


Even my mayor, Eric Garcetti, is an establishment Democrat...


I know in L A , she will own South and East L A , the less affluent suburbs, and downtown...I suspect Bernie will do well in West L.A. That's his wheelhouse.

[bravenak]

46. Yep

He will get OC too I think. But he will not beat her. And he NEEDS to beat her mightily to win. I see him getting the brakes beat off myself, but I am just an ignorant confederate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. It's demographically all wrong for him..

But I do see him winning some areas of the state but not enough.

[bravenak]

50. Yes. I think that his rhetoric leave some of us demographically challenged folks

Feeling unneeded and unheard. I like a person who is able to compromise and that understands my demographic best. Hillary has made mistakes but I can forgive her for things she said years ago. She changes her view if she is wrong. That is better than a stubborn person who never admits a fault. I think that is one of the things that helped me stop hating her. She tries very hard.

[kath]

110. Are Jews "demographically challenged folks"?

[dchill]

54. Wow. An entire article based on baseless canards!

Congrats!

[bravenak]

55. Yeah. Under the bus goes the LA Times...

[dchill]

57. I just checked: under the bus...

There's just Cathleen Decker and you. And I think you both know what happened in Arizona.

[bravenak]

62. Oh no

John Lewis is here, Dolores Huerta is here, EDUb is here, the Establishment is here, Lena Dunham is here, Southern Black Democrats are here, plenty of us are under this damn bus, waiting for a saviour.

[okasha]

85. Planned Parenthood,

Human Rights Commission, the for-gods'-sakes Girl Scouts....

[bravenak]

86. So many of us down here

I haven't even met everybody yet. Rachel Maddow is down here some days too.

[okasha]

88. I last saw tbe President

up by the left front tire. The League of Conservation Voters is somewhere in the back here with the genuine Socialists.

[bravenak]

89. Tell him to stay cool

The bus is magic and will disappear in June

[Starry Messenger]

74. I don't see a lot of Bernie stickers around town.

I saw one on a Prius last week.

The tech industry is going to favor HRC. She won this state in 2008--I was actually surprised back then when she did, since I was in the grip of Obama-fever at the time, lol.

I think nor-cal college towns will like Bernie, but she just spoke at Stanford too, so who knows.

I don't see Bernie winning this state though.

[bravenak]

76. I have seen one, surrounded by Trump signs

But I think he gets my state. Few delegates, though. Wont help him much.

[Starry Messenger]

78. Thank goodness no Trump signs around here!

This tends to be Ron Paul territory--the Center for Libertarian Studies is based in my town, oddly enough.

[dlwickham]

80. if he comes within 10 points I'll be amazed

[bravenak]

87. Me too

Thats a virtual tie

[NorthCarolina]

81. Let me guess...massive early voting coupled with greatly reduced polling places,

maybe throw a wrench or two into the voter registration info for kicks and voila...another win for the establishment! Yay

[Cha]

90. "Her coalition is very similar to what it was in 2008," said Bill Burton..

an Obama campaign aide in 2008 and now a California-based Clinton backer. "And she’ll probably do so much better than she did with African Americans, now that President Obama isn’t in the race."

Arizona, where Clinton won on Tuesday, is a far smaller state than California, though its demographic makeup is somewhat similar. The results there were not good news for the Vermont senator — particularly if they are replicated to the west."

Thank you, Brave!

[blueintelligentsia]

92. Is Bill Burton insuiating that African-Americans voted for him...

based solely on the color of his skin?

[bravenak]

100. What is your problem?

[blueintelligentsia]

101. You.

[bravenak]

103. I will be alerting admins about your behaviour.

[Cha]

97. KICK!

[ucrdem]

105. California is not Michigan and will not turn on a dime

no matter how much negative advertising Sander's mysterious benefactors run before the election. It didn't work for Meg Whitman and it won't work for Bernie.

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

106. I'm very content to wait and see. Thanks, bravenak!

[Gothmog]

107. Sanders lost the Latino vote in Texas and will not well in California

This makes me smile http://www.buzzfeed.com/adriancarrasquillo/texas-colorado-latino-clinton-sanders?utm_term=.uo6wyo05Y#.ysepwL9y1

Hillary Clinton rolled on Super Tuesday, racking up wins across the South powered by black and older voters. And in Texas, where Hispanics made up 31% of the electorate according to exit polls, she won over 70% of their vote.

Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders won the Democratic caucus in Colorado, where Latinos make up 15% of eligible voters, but entrance polls were not available.

HUD Secretary Julian Castro, often mentioned as a possible vice presidential pick by Clinton, cautioned that exit polls are not definitive, but lauded her strength in states across the country as different as Nevada, Iowa, South Carolina, and now Texas.

“It’s not surprising,” Castro told BuzzFeed News. “Hillary Clinton has had strong support in the Latino community in Texas and throughout the country for a very long time, and tonight’s results in Texas and her strong support from Latinos are one more affirmation that she appeals to diverse communities. It says a lot about her ability to win in November.”

[LiberalFighter]

109. The only states with polling data that has Bernie winning are:

West Virginia and Montana.

Whatever the margin of error for Alaska might swing to Bernie.

BTW if anyone has polling data for the following let me know.

Hawaii
Wyoming
Delaware
Rhode Island
Indiana
Guam
Oregon
Virgin Islands
North Dakota
Puerto Rico
District of Columbia

[DemonGoddess]

112. K&R!

Great article brave!