Thu Mar 24, 2016, 03:07 PM

bravenak (34,648 posts)

Analysis: Why Winning California Will Not Be Easy For Bernie Sanders

But organizing a state with more than 7.4 million Democrats — and an additional 4.1 million nonpartisan voters who can cast Democratic ballots this year — is a giant exercise unlike any Sanders has pulled off in the campaign so far, as he conceded in Wednesday’s interview.

Essentially he is trying to do what Barack Obama could not do in his 2008 primary battle here with Clinton — and doing it without Obama’s strength among African American voters.

"Her coalition is very similar to what it was in 2008," said Bill Burton, an Obama campaign aide in 2008 and now a California-based Clinton backer. "And she’ll probably do so much better than she did with African Americans, now that President Obama isn’t in the race."

Arizona, where Clinton won on Tuesday, is a far smaller state than California, though its demographic makeup is somewhat similar. The results there were not good news for the Vermont senator — particularly if they are replicated to the west.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-california-primary-20160324-story.html

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114 replies	Author	Time	Post
Analysis: Why Winning California Will Not Be Easy For Bernie Sanders (Original post)	bravenak	Mar 2016	OP
June 7th....	HumanityExperiment	Mar 2016	#1
That's what I hear every time	bravenak	Mar 2016	#14
then you have nothing to fear...	HumanityExperiment	Mar 2016	#25
My op does not say drop out	bravenak	Mar 2016	#26
yeah, sure...	HumanityExperiment	Mar 2016	#28
Umm hmm	bravenak	Mar 2016	#30
Have a good day!	HumanityExperiment	Mar 2016	#35
By the time June 7 comes Bernie will need 90% of the vote to catch up	upaloopa	Mar 2016	#37
I am thinking you are correct, the percentage goes up for Sanders.	Thinkingabout	Mar 2016	#79
you assume linear from this point on...	HumanityExperiment	Mar 2016	#82
No not true. These are proportional promaries. Both candidates pic up delegates. Before Tuesday	upaloopa	Mar 2016	#83
Reality?....	HumanityExperiment	Mar 2016	#84
I pretend analysis is fear too if my biases compel me...	LanternWaste	Mar 2016	#108
April 19 and April 26 are more important dates right now than June 7	LonePirate	Mar 2016	#2
I am voting this Sat	bravenak	Mar 2016	#15
I thought the race was over? Why are you bothering posting about California?	ThePhilosopher04	Mar 2016	#3
It is. I was born there.	bravenak	Mar 2016	#16
I think you're scared. And for good reason.	ThePhilosopher04	Mar 2016	#95
Why the fuck would I be scared?	bravenak	Mar 2016	#99
Arizona is good indicator of what will happen in CA.	DCBob	Mar 2016	#4
You mean mayhem and fraud?	whatchamacallit	Mar 2016	#5
I was referring to demographics.	DCBob	Mar 2016	#6
Are you accusing the Clinton campaign of mayhem and fraud	sufrommich	Mar 2016	#7
I'm sure they are...	Agschmid	Mar 2016	#9
Or are they?	blueintelligentsia	Mar 2016	#18
Ask them.	Agschmid	Mar 2016	#19
I'm not going to ask them based on a blanket accusation...	blueintelligentsia	Mar 2016	#94
Don't worry, California has way more voting places	jfern	Mar 2016	#32
Arizona has those too, they just figured more people were using them...	sweetloukillbot	Mar 2016	#59
Supposedly the election day voting in AZ favored Sanders...	thesquanderer	Mar 2016	#10
I agree	bravenak	Mar 2016	#17
You sure do post a lot about a candidate	choie	Mar 2016	#58
People need to not obsess over my posting habits and mind their own	bravenak	Mar 2016	#61
Do you ever listen to yourself?	choie	Mar 2016	#64
Still here?	bravenak	Mar 2016	#65
Yup and will be	choie	Mar 2016	#66
Yep. Me too. Anything else?	bravenak	Mar 2016	#68
Oh Yes, I sure do	choie	Mar 2016	#69
Best that you do. Done yet?	bravenak	Mar 2016	#70
Considering my record is clean	choie	Mar 2016	#71
Means nothing	bravenak	Mar 2016	#73
The feeling is mutual - off to ignore you go	choie	Mar 2016	#75
I am pleased	bravenak	Mar 2016	#77
Let's take a look at the states that each candidate has won.....	George II	Mar 2016	#8
I agree	bravenak	Mar 2016	#20
Remember: if it's in the South, it doesn't count	mcar	Mar 2016	#41
The south is messed up	RobertEarl	May 2016	#113
How about the idea that there are Democrats who live in the South	mcar	May 2016	#114
They key with rural states is that they are more sparsely populated.	LiberalFighter	Mar 2016	#111
K&R	ismnotwasm	Mar 2016	#11
Absolutely nothing about Sanders' campaign run would be easy. Only an idiot would think otherwise.	nc4bo	Mar 2016	#12
Understandable that you feel that way	bravenak	Mar 2016	#13
Luckily CA is a modified closed primary meaning...	blueintelligentsia	Mar 2016	#21
If he gets that	bravenak	Mar 2016	#22
He'll do very well in northern california and most of LA	blueintelligentsia	Mar 2016	#23
Not necessarily since LA has alot of hispanics and blacks	bravenak	Mar 2016	#24
Well Oakland...	blueintelligentsia	Mar 2016	#56
Oakland is in California	bravenak	Mar 2016	#63
Oakland's in CA, whaaa?	blueintelligentsia	Mar 2016	#91
Of course it is in Cali.	bravenak	Mar 2016	#93
sarcasm What was your point?	blueintelligentsia	Mar 2016	#96
Trying to figure what your point was	bravenak	Mar 2016	#98
Which point? Independents? Minority vote? Oakland being in CA?	blueintelligentsia	Mar 2016	#102
I am alerting admin	bravenak	Mar 2016	#104
Not to mention that I will phone bank for Hillary in my county of Santa Barbara	upaloopa	Mar 2016	#27
Yeah!!!! Good work!	bravenak	Mar 2016	#29
By June 7th, Californians will be asking "Bernie who?" n/t	cosmicone	Mar 2016	#31
And we will hear the outrage about how they don't really count	bravenak	Mar 2016	#33
Here is the thing .....	cosmicone	Mar 2016	#34
He sure is	bravenak	Mar 2016	#36
Many people here remember Bernie saying immigrants take work from Americans	upaloopa	Mar 2016	#40
+1,000,000 n/t	cosmicone	Mar 2016	#42
I applied to the United Farm Workers headquarters in Keene, as a accountant after that position and	upaloopa	Mar 2016	#67
Bernie's experience with the real world	cosmicone	Mar 2016	#72
And yet most Californians are against it.	basselope	Mar 2016	#48
Most Californians are not against it	cosmicone	Mar 2016	#49
Yes, they are.	basselope	Mar 2016	#51
In the face of a possible Donald Trump or Ted Cruz White House, I am amazed	Jackie Wilson Said	Mar 2016	#38
I hope they see that too	bravenak	Mar 2016	#39
I predict Trump will be replaced by Paul Ryan.	Jackie Wilson Said	Mar 2016	#43
I hope so so they can have their own 1968	bravenak	Mar 2016	#44
Clinton lost my vote forever when she voted for the war.	basselope	Mar 2016	#52
Trump or Cruz will be happy to hear you are making it easier for them to destroy the planet	Jackie Wilson Said	Mar 2016	#53
As if Clinton won't do the same.	basselope	Mar 2016	#60
Demographically CA is HRC's wheelhouse...	DemocratSinceBirth	Mar 2016	#45
Yep	bravenak	Mar 2016	#46
It's demographically all wrong for him..	DemocratSinceBirth	Mar 2016	#47
Yes. I think that his rhetoric leave some of us demographically challenged folks	bravenak	Mar 2016	#50
Are Jews "demographically challenged folks"?	kath	Mar 2016	#110
Wow. An entire article based on baseless canards!	dchill	Mar 2016	#54
Yeah. Under the bus goes the LA Times...	bravenak	Mar 2016	#55
I just checked: under the bus...	dchill	Mar 2016	#57
Oh no	bravenak	Mar 2016	#62
Planned Parenthood,	okasha	Mar 2016	#85
So many of us down here	bravenak	Mar 2016	#86
I last saw tbe President	okasha	Mar 2016	#88
Tell him to stay cool	bravenak	Mar 2016	#89
I don't see a lot of Bernie stickers around town.	Starry Messenger	Mar 2016	#74
I have seen one, surrounded by Trump signs	bravenak	Mar 2016	#76
Thank goodness no Trump signs around here!	Starry Messenger	Mar 2016	#78
if he comes within 10 points I'll be amazed	dlwickham	Mar 2016	#80
Me too	bravenak	Mar 2016	#87
Let me guess...massive early voting coupled with greatly reduced polling places,	NorthCarolina	Mar 2016	#81
"Her coalition is very similar to what it was in 2008," said Bill Burton..	Cha	Mar 2016	#90
Is Bill Burton insuiating that African-Americans voted for him...	blueintelligentsia	Mar 2016	#92
What is your problem?	bravenak	Mar 2016	#100
You.	blueintelligentsia	Mar 2016	#101
I will be alerting admins about your behaviour.	bravenak	Mar 2016	#103
KICK!	Cha	Mar 2016	#97
California is not Michigan and will not turn on a dime	ucrdem	Mar 2016	#105
I'm very content to wait and see. Thanks, bravenak!	Elmer S. E. Dump	Mar 2016	#106
Sanders lost the Latino vote in Texas and will not well in California	Gothmog	Mar 2016	#107
The only states with polling data that has Bernie winning are:	LiberalFighter	Mar 2016	#109
K&R!	DemonGoddess	Mar 2016	#112

Response to bravenak (Original post)

Thu Mar 24, 2016, 03:12 PM

HumanityExperiment (1,442 posts)

1. June 7th....

Gives some perspective to the article, take into account that by June 7th what is stated as improbable could be possible

Message matters and the more time Bernie has to get his message out and inform voters, the more voters he gains

Analysis: Why Winning California Will Not Be Easy For Bernie Sanders

1. June 7th....

14. That's what I hear every time

25. then you have nothing to fear...

26. My op does not say drop out

28. yeah, sure...

30. Umm hmm

35. Have a good day!

37. By the time June 7 comes Bernie will need 90% of the vote to catch up

79. I am thinking you are correct, the percentage goes up for Sanders.

82. you assume linear from this point on...

83. No not true. These are proportional promaries. Both candidates pic up delegates. Before Tuesday

84. Reality?....

108. I pretend analysis is fear too if my biases compel me...

2. April 19 and April 26 are more important dates right now than June 7

15. I am voting this Sat

3. I thought the race was over? Why are you bothering posting about California?

16. It is. I was born there.

95. I think you're scared. And for good reason.

99. Why the fuck would I be scared?

4. Arizona is good indicator of what will happen in CA.

5. You mean mayhem and fraud?

6. I was referring to demographics.

7. Are you accusing the Clinton campaign of mayhem and fraud

9. I'm sure they are...

18. Or are they?

19. Ask them.

94. I'm not going to ask them based on a blanket accusation...

32. Don't worry, California has way more voting places

59. Arizona has those too, they just figured more people were using them...

10. Supposedly the election day voting in AZ favored Sanders...

17. I agree

58. You sure do post a lot about a candidate

61. People need to not obsess over my posting habits and mind their own

64. Do you ever listen to yourself?

65. Still here?

66. Yup and will be

68. Yep. Me too. Anything else?

69. Oh Yes, I sure do

70. Best that you do. Done yet?

71. Considering my record is clean

73. Means nothing

75. The feeling is mutual - off to ignore you go

77. I am pleased

8. Let's take a look at the states that each candidate has won.....

20. I agree

41. Remember: if it's in the South, it doesn't count

113. The south is messed up

114. How about the idea that there are Democrats who live in the South

111. They key with rural states is that they are more sparsely populated.

11. K&R

12. Absolutely nothing about Sanders' campaign run would be easy. Only an idiot would think otherwise.

13. Understandable that you feel that way

21. Luckily CA is a modified closed primary meaning...

22. If he gets that

23. He'll do very well in northern california and most of LA

24. Not necessarily since LA has alot of hispanics and blacks

56. Well Oakland...

63. Oakland is in California

91. Oakland's in CA, whaaa?

93. Of course it is in Cali.

96. *sarcasm* What was your point?

98. Trying to figure what your point was

102. Which point? Independents? Minority vote? Oakland being in CA?

104. I am alerting admin

27. Not to mention that I will phone bank for Hillary in my county of Santa Barbara

29. Yeah!!!! Good work!

31. By June 7th, Californians will be asking "Bernie who?" n/t

33. And we will hear the outrage about how they don't really count

34. Here is the thing .....

36. He sure is

40. Many people here remember Bernie saying immigrants take work from Americans

42. +1,000,000 n/t

67. I applied to the United Farm Workers headquarters in Keene, as a accountant after that position and

72. Bernie's experience with the real world

48. And yet most Californians are against it.

49. Most Californians are not against it

51. Yes, they are.

38. In the face of a possible Donald Trump or Ted Cruz White House, I am amazed

39. I hope they see that too

96. sarcasm What was your point?