Why many super delegates pledged to Hillary may abandon her in droves before the convention.

[imagine2015]

If Hillary can't get the number of elected (pledged) delegates needed to win the nomination and the polls continue to show Sanders is doing much better against the Republican presidential candidate, the super delegates will abandon her in droves.

Especially those in states that Sanders won in primaries.

Democratic office holders don't want to go down with her in defeat in the General Election. They will get off that sinking ship and get
on the Bernie lifeboat.

It would become an "open" convention.

[metroins]

1. Hillary is dominating

She's way ahead of schedule in delegates and popular vote.

The people are speaking.

[still_one]

3. I am not sure which primary election some of the folks are looking at

[imagine2015]

4. She's hardly ahead of schedule to collect the number of elected delegates to be nominated.

And Sanders can prevent her from obtaining a majority of elected delegates at the convention.

That's when things start falling apart for Hillary.

He might have fewer elected delegates, and maybe he won't, but if Hillary can't capture the nomination with elected delegates the convention will be open.

[metroins]

8. She's at 110%

Way ahead of schedule.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Hillary will handily win on delegates. She won't even need the Supers.

The citizens of America resoundingly choose Hillary to lead America.

Edit: Full link
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

[imagine2015]

16. 110% of what? The number of elected delegates needed to be nominated?

Link please.

[metroins]

18. I did link it...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

110% of the track she needs to win pledged delegates.

Meaning, based on proportional delegate allocation, she has won more from earlier states than she needed.

[TheBlackAdder]

67. IT'S OVER 9000!!!!!!!

.







.

[Trenzalore]

9. At this point in 2008

Obama had a 90 delegate lead. Hillary's is triple that.

[MFM008]

32. troll?

troll.............

[peggysue2]

19. Yes!

The inconvenient truth is as it has been: Hillary Clinton dominates in both delegate count and popular vote. There's nothing mysterious or perplexing about the race. HRC is winning the nomination contest. Bernie Sanders has done better than expected, better than I suspect even he expected. But he's still losing.

For God's sake, deal with the numbers, not the ongoing delusion that a bunny is jumping out of a hat to change the math and/or the final outcome.

It is what it is.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

23. #FeelTheMath

[CorporatistNation]

20. Only Half HAve Spoken... When We Hit June Then It Will Be Time To Evaluate

There are the PROGRESSIVE VOTERS who must be allowed their say ... after the conservative southerners who have now had their say. We need to have the rest of America become better informed as to just who Hillary and Bill really are AND who they truly "represent."

[metroins]

22. Everybody gets a say

They're overwhelmingly supporting Hillary.

[1StrongBlackMan]

2. <5 would be my guess. n/t

[MineralMan]

5. That's just silly, and is based on fantasy.

Hillary has a strong lead in both the popular vote and pledged delegates. Where is this even coming from?

[Trenzalore]

10. They are making stuff up at this point

They need to justify keeping it going somehow.

[RobertEarl]

24. It ain't but halfway over

I'd say it is you making stuff up to suit your fantasy that it is over already. In fact it is quite dense for anyone to claim there is no reason to keep going.

[Trenzalore]

25. I hope you keep going

I'm looking forward to talking to voters in PA and getting drunk at a victory party here.

[upaloopa]

36. There is no reason to keep going.

It's in the math. Bernie cannot win enough delegates in closed primaries to even catch up

[brooklynite]

6. If Clinton is ahead in pledged delegates, not a prayer that the Superdelegates will shift...

...the only people seeing Sanders having a better shot based on head-to-head polls are the folks here.

[imagine2015]

13. And if she doesn't have enough elected (pledged) delegates to capture the nomination?

Oh my!

Can you say Titanic?

[brooklynite]

15. If Sanders is ahead in pledged delegates, I think he'll be nominated...

...let us know how he'll get a majority of pledged delegates.

[MisterP]

7. even after Super Tuesday Too the poll lines are starting to get REAL close already

people are whispering about this or that sponsorship scandal, the newest FBI leaks, this or that dictator that we really don't like now, this or that land activist shot in her bed; people are gonna start talking momentum, and "zombie campaign," and that she can only lose voters, and that her faction's been on a rampant losing streak while blaming everyone but themselves, and her lack of indy pull

even losing HI will mean a streak coming into WI, and then WY for NY Apr. 19

[FarPoint]

11. Why would they?

Bernie has yet to stump and campaign for even just 1 Democratic Candidate/ superdelegate ever!.... That is my first thought....

[NorthCarolina]

12. I think their first order of priority is self preservation,

protecting the cash flow into their private coffers.

[LiberalFighter]

14. Automatic delegates are not likely to abandon Hillary for one primary reason.

Bernie Sanders has never been a Democrat. All of the automatic delegates ARE Democrats.

[Samantha]

64. He is currently a Democrat

Previously he was a Democratic Socialist. As he explained that during that time frame, a Democratic Socialist is basically a Democrat who goes a step further to say the government should work for all of the people, not just the wealthy and corporations. During his time in Congress and the Senate, he caucused with the Democrats. He was labeled an Independent in the Senate because they only have three categories: Republican, Democrat and Independent.

It is a shame people keep distorting this.

Sam

[imagine2015]

66. They don't care. Besides, there is no formal membership in the Democratic Party.

All you need to do is register was a Democrat and maybe not even that to become a "member". Is Bernie a registered Democrat? Maybe not. But who really cares among his millions of supporters?

It's not a normal membership organization with dues, regular membership meetings, votes on all matters, open agenda's at membership meetings, elected officers and staff at every level, membership cards, etc.,

It's mainly an electoral apparatus for elections.

How many voters in the General Election will actually read the convention adopted election platform?

[Stallion]

17. EXACT Opposite is True-Democratic Officeholders Don't want a Democratic Socialist at Top of Ticket

that is political kryptonite in most areas of the Country

[RobertEarl]

21. That's not true at all

You are just imagining things. Most of the elected know they preside over a basically socialist government and they are integral parts of it, therefore they welcome Sanders, and the more he wins the braver they become.

You need to shuck off the yoke of the PTB and get with the program of socialism that makes America great!

[Trenzalore]

27. Not one of his colleagues in the Senate have endorsed him.

He literally has no friends at the office.

[RobertEarl]

44. They are chickens

And afraid of the Clintons and what Bill might do to them. Duhhhhhhh!

Besides, you may have noticed, Bernie is not a suck-up like the rest of the senators.

[Trenzalore]

45. Al Franken is a coward? nt.

[RobertEarl]

47. If you say so

He sure has rolled over, eh?

[Trenzalore]

48. He rolled over?

Anyone who doesn't support your candidate is a sell out. Seems like you have a narrow mind about those who disagree with you.

[RobertEarl]

50. Like you?

Your first post was a narrow minded post about how this election is over already. But sure, those who are not for Bernie are questionable, indeed.

[Trenzalore]

51. Math is hard to argue with

With each state that votes and Bernie doesn't hit a certain threshold the threshold of the remaining delegates he needs to win increases. Given the state that are left to vote, reaching those thresholds are increasingly unlikely.

As I said. I want him to lose badly in PA so I can drink with my fellow Hillary supporters on election night!

[RobertEarl]

54. Convention first

Nice to see that I got you to reconsider and not be so narrow minded. Good for you.

Once the convention is over we'll know what happened. Rest assured we are in it to win it, and we have a few other cards to play. My advice, since you seem all new to this, is sit back, watch and learn.

And do keep that mind open.

[Trenzalore]

55. New to this lol

I may be new here, but I'm certainly not new to primary fights.

Obama vs. Hillary was nastier and more competitive.

[RobertEarl]

58. You seem new

New to politics in that you don't seem to get it. Of course if your sole intent is just to disrupt, well, yeah, you have tried.

[upaloopa]

34. I guess you don't count the conservatives who live in this country too

It is hard for me to take you for real

[Stallion]

43. Elected Officeholers/Delegate: Clinton 205 Sanders 7 or Almost 30-1

although I think there certainly some state office holders that doesn't include. Democratic Officeholders do not want a Democratic Socialist at the top of the Democratic Ticket because that will result in a torrent of TV commercials painting them as Socialists. Only the terminally naïve can't understand the potential negatives of a Democratic Socialist at the Top of the Ticket. Their guns are silent right now because they don't want to face Clinton

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Democratic_Party_superdelegates,_2016

[RobertEarl]

46. Well

Most of the young and educated are for Bernie. No wonder education is getting so expensive. They don't want educated citizens because then the crooks get voted out.

Only the naive imagine that we don't live in a socialist country.

[tritsofme]

26. Sorry Berners, this pitiful little desperate fantasy of stealing the nomination will never happen.

This is a fever dream, not even worth seriously addressing.

[imagine2015]

62. So if Hillary is only able to capture the nomination via unelected super delegates that's OK?

But if Bernie wins the nomination with the help of super delegates that's stealing!!!!

Right.

I'm so glad you're fair minded.

[tritsofme]

63. Again, this is purely a desperate fantasy.

Hillary will end the primaries leading by hundreds of delegates and millions of votes. SDs won't be toppling Hillary to install the clear the loser of the contest.

If anyone thinks this could actually happen, they are delusional and in deep denial.

[imagine2015]

69. Hillary may not get enough elected (pledged) delegates to win nomination.

So she will have to depend on the super delegates to stick with her.

But remember, they did abandon her in 2008 and will do so again if her campaign continues to sputter along.

[grasswire]

28. that's what Heileman and Halperin (Bloomberg and MSNBC) said today.

They didn't say "droves". But they did predict it happening if Bernie does well in the next ten states.

[MisterP]

33. AK HI WA WI WY NY CT DE MD PA RI--most don't look good and are closed, but that's only right now

[Autumn Colors]

52. 2 CT votes for Bernie in this household! (nt)

[MisterP]

53. damn straight! put 'er there!

CT went Obama in '08 but again there seem to be very little correlations between how a state votes and any other factors, except the upper Rockies are solid Sanders territory and the Deep South is solid Clinton

PA might be the big fight

[Autumn Colors]

59. I'm a native of upstate NY

and I really feel that unless some voter suppression shenanigans happen, Hillary folks are going to get a big surprise from my home state. She'll win the wealthy NYC folks, Westchester, Long Island ... but upstate? Brooklyn (when pitted against a native son)? Hmmmm ....

[MisterP]

61. but again OH was cleaned out by NAFTA too ...

[RandySF]

29. Hillary is at 110% of where she needs to be at this point to win enough delegates.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

[El Supremo]

30. ...

[upaloopa]

31. None

Go back to sleep and start another dream

[bigtree]

35. more sham politics

...from the integrity campaign fond of throwing shade on Clinton's ethics.

Behind in the popular vote and behind in delegates, Sanders seeks to use establishment figures to help him steal the election? Nice optics.

[Zynx]

37. Now there's fantasy if I've ever seen it.

Has Bernie been hit even once by the Republicans so far? Once he does his vaunted independent vote will collapse. He's a candidate in the abstract to most voters.

[YOHABLO]

38. Regardless, we still have a Republican majority in the House and Senate.

What really matters is how Obama's choice for SCOTUS nominee will side on some very important issues.

[Aerows]

39. I will be so goddamned happy when the primary ends

that my smile will be like eating a rare filet mignon as I ride away on the back of a tiger.

I'm seriously over this shit.

[KingFlorez]

40. So now you want superdelegates to decide the primary?

What a difference a few primaries make and a dramatic difference at that. The superdelegates are not going to back a candidate with a 300 pledged delegate deficit, because that would be clearly defying the will of the voters and ensure that Clinton voters would sit out the general election.

[cosmicone]

41. Meh ... fail n/t

[Koinos]

42. In your dreams.

[calguy]

49. I see you've been drinking big gulps

Of that special batch of Kook Aid that Tad Devine mixed up for you. Better send in another $27 before the high goes away

[LuvLoogie]

56. The Revolution's plan Z: a YUGE meteorite!

[OhZone]

57. No change.

Oh well.

[Thinkingabout]

60. The need for Sanders to prove himself better informed on foreign policies

For one issue plus many other issues then maybe a few will look back on their endorsements. Since Hillary is going to have more delegates going into the convention and she is far ahead in votes than Sanders. Also, I know some may have not seen some of the recent polls but Hillary is polling better than the Republicans. We would want the one with the most delegates to be the nominee, anything less would be undemocratic.

[corbettkroehler]

65. I Must Demur

While it has been encouraging to see some of the previously uncommitted superdelegates commit to Sanders, I don't see a mass exodus of those who already endorsed unless she is indicted, which I seriously doubt Obama would permit because he would view it as a stain on his legacy.

[imagine2015]

68. For weekend DU'ers