This is really going to happen! It will be Kasich vs Clinton, because he's clobbering her!

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

Of course the Rs will choose Kasich at the "open" (notice, it's not going to be "brokered&quot convention.

[akbacchus_BC]

1. I think you are wrong, it will be that ahole trump against Mrs. Clinton and he will lose.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

2. That's how a Dem would think. The Rs hate him and created an *OPEN* convention

specifically to circumvent tradition and run the ONLY electable R, an establishment guy, past the only poor Dem matchup, that being Kasich vs Clinton.

Why should we expect the Rs to act in any other way. They've telegraphed what they're doing with their language.

[Surya Gayatri]

3. If they so rashly rip the nomination away from Trump,

Last edited Fri Mar 25, 2016, 09:37 AM - Edit history (1)

flagrantly flouting the will of the plurality of Repub voters, there will be hell to pay.

The Donald will go rogue and take 30% of the electorate with him in a 3rd party run.

Outcome? DEMS WIN--no matter who their candidate is.

[akbacchus_BC]

5. I hope you are right! Can you imagine those republicans repealing all the

good that President Obama has done!

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

16. They know they can't win with him, and it's clear SCOTUS is more important POTUS

So jettison Trump, and if he runs as a Third Party candidate against Kasich and Clinton, nothing lost. I believe the Rs like Trump more than Clinton, so from their point of view, it's win-win with Trump or Kasich, and losing to Clinton is a wash because it was a foregone conclusion vs Trump.

[Cobalt Violet]

28. but then there is Jesse Venture if hillary wins and Bernie loses.

At least he has said he would run.

[NowSam]

81. How fun

President Ventura.

[lapfog_1]

55. not if there is a deal...

and we know Trump doesn't really want to be President, he wants a deal.

[akbacchus_BC]

4. Let's wait and see what is going to happen but there is no way

that trump can win if either Mr. Sanders or Mrs. Clinton is the Dem nominee. I am not sure if you all dislike trump like we do in Canada, pity we cannot vote. Trump is a vile person and I know he has his followers and they too are vile. Shows a segment of the US who are racist and bigoted.

I am just scared that if Trump is the nominee on the Republican side and Mrs. Clinton is the nominee on the Democratic side, that a lot of people will turn out to vote against her. A lot of people do not trust Mrs. Clinton and a lot of people do not like a dynasty. Let's keep our fingers and toes cross that a Democrat gets elected.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

7. Trump will get killed. They know that fact, too. All they have is Kasich vs Clinton

They hate her more than Trump. Obama better use "consent" to get his milk toast Justice. Mitch is playing with an inside straight.

[akbacchus_BC]

9. Trump is going to survive all the mess he has created. My only regret is that Mrs. Clinton is toast

She is so full of her self to run for the President of America is mind effing boggling. Guess she relies on the pumas to back her up! Plus she feels she is entitled. Which US citizens want a has been to walk the halls of the White House again?

[sufrommich]

30. "She is so full of her self to run for the President of America"

Should you say she's "uppity"?

[Nonhlanhla]

45. Yes, how dare she?

The little woman does not know her place.

[workinclasszero]

51. IKR?

Funny how the left and right sound the same since Bernie got in the race.

[Karma13612]

8. Sanders is leading in many polls against Trump

Hillary is not leading against Trump to the same degree.

Many do fear a Trump win if Hill is our nominee, including me.

[akbacchus_BC]

10. We all know that if Hillary is the nominee, she will win. Women hate trump!

I still prefer her than trump! However, if Bernie manages to get the nod, he will be the next President of the US. Keeping fingers and toes crossed. I love Bernie and his progressive ideas.

[Yurovsky]

32. Married women have voted GOP in the last several Presidential elections...

and if you narrow the sample size down to white married women the margin is even greater. My concern is that there is not a great deal of enthusiasm behind HRC (there is ample video evidence of this from her campaign appearances), and if young voters and POC do not turn out for HRC like they have for President Obama or Bernie, this election could swing towards Trump.

Conventional wisdom says that people are more likely to turn out to vote FOR someone than against someone. The whackadoos on the Trump bandwagon are going to turn out, of that I'm pretty sure. And there are a lot of them, like it or not. Then you have to wonder if the 50-60% of non-Trump GOP voters will turn out to support him or (less likely) hold their nose and vote Trump to keep HRC out of the White House.

HRC just doesn't have the skills of Bill (who is looking pretty haggard out on the stump), and whether the HRC people wish to acknowledge it or not, she's just not that like able. Her negatives - especially on the issue of trustworthiness - are far higher than Bernie's or any other national Democratic figure. Don't get me wrong - if I had to bet money, I'd put it on HRC over Trump, but I would be extremely nervous. The overconfidence of the HRC supporters is misplaced and ignores the very real baggage she has, and the choices she has made that have distanced her from the base (which ain't exactly in love with the Goldman Sachs wing of the DNC).

[marions ghost]

71. You said exactly what I think

and I mean EXACTLY.

Hillary's chances against Trump are not as high as people think is my gut feeling. But what the other groups will do is unpredictable at present.

I wouldn't know whether to make bets on this horse race or not. So many variables in play. Whoever is in the finals, it will be perilously close.

[brooklynite]

15. Under current rules, they won't be able to even nominate him.

He has ONE State...you need a minimum of 8.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

19. Bingo! So that's why they changed it to an Open Convention. That rule doesn't apply

[Ken Burch]

24. Has there actually been a rule change for the GOP convention?

I know they want to stop El Cabello Grande, but have the actually announced something?

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

41. Listening to Political analyst saying convention is going to multiple ballots, foregone conclusion

Daren Samuelson Politico

[Waiting For Everyman]

6. Yep.

I've thought it would be Kasich since the primaries started.

Cruz will implode today due to a sex scandal. Interesting timing to all of this.

Except I think Clinton has her own scandal coming any time now. There are not only the emails, there are the money transactions through the foundation, PLUS we don't know what Trump may have on her too. I'd bet a lot he's got something campaign-ending.

[Metric System]

11. Sounds like you're rooting for Trump and don't think he has a closet full of skeletons.

[akbacchus_BC]

13. I don't think that poster was rooting for Trump. This is DU

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

21. I think we want Trump, don't you? Hillary can beat Trump.

[akbacchus_BC]

12. Sex scandals have never stopped republicans. They keep having them and their constituents

cast a blind eye. Mind you, they are so evangelical and christian, but so forgiving when one of their own step out of line. Talk about double standards!

[bulloney]

85. That would be the only reason Kasich is still running, given his primary/caucus performances.

Something's gotta be brewing to keep Kasich running and the enabling media playing along.

[FarPoint]

14. I'm suspicion too.

All along Kasich has been relaxed, confident without reason...reminds me of * Bush....plus....the GOP Convention is in Cleveland... Maybe not a coincidence. Something feels like a bait and switch somehow. Just a feeling I've had....Kasich is my governor and a snake he can be.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

17. And the "Lose with Cruz" meme is a total smoke screen

They aren't tipping their hand. It's high stakes poker vs 3-D chess.

[FarPoint]

18. My intuitive self senses there is a big smoke screen amongst us...

I just have yet to piece it all together.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

20. Start a thread when you figure it out. I'm thinking Clinton will have to pick Sanders, now

Then Sanders can resign after a year and she can get her own person.

[FarPoint]

22. I don't see Sanders being a VP.

He can energize our Progressive Democrats by building up activism with organizations such as Progressive Democrats of American... Change Congress, then change laws.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

23. That's why I have him resigning. He's only on the ticket to carry it across the goal line lol

[FarPoint]

25. I want to see Bernie continue his momentum..

He has done well with looking at where the Democratic Party can go if United.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

34. Agreed. Looking forward to your thoughts when you figure out the Dem side

[Chan790]

66. I don't think he'd take it if offered.

He certainly has the capacity to get something out of her...but I don't see why he wants that when he could ask for nearly anything else and get it:

* To pick the T. Sec.
* Promises that DWS won't be part of the administration.
* Gabbard for DNC chair.
* Platform concessions
* Hillary to embrace Medicare-for-all or single-payer or his college tuition proposal or the transaction tax.
* All of the above.

Hell, knowing it's the short-line to be the next nominee...he could demand to name her VP.

But...I don't see him wanting the job himself.

[Mnpaul]

26. Kasich is running ads here

three weeks after the caucus. They just began during the morning news.

He only got 5.8% of the vote

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

61. Interesting. Where?

[Mnpaul]

68. Minnesota

Twin Cities area

[sufrommich]

27. If the GOP "chooses" anyone over the candidate who goes

into the convention with the most delegates,there's going to be a bloodbath. But you keep wishful thinking.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

35. Pot calls kettle black

[Iris]

29. Will Trump voters, some of whom are over 50 and have never

voted before, vote for a candidate selected at the convention?

[PJMcK]

31. A view from the other side

You make a cogent point, WhaTHellisgoingonhere and I agree about your use of words to describe the upcoming Republican convention.

Here are two contrary points of views from conservative writers:

1. Rich Lowry: http://nypost.com/2016/03/24/john-kasichs-amazing-fantasy-presidential-campaign/

2. John Podhoretz: http://nypost.com/2016/03/23/wake-up-cruz-and-kasich-the-gop-convention-will-never-nominate-you/

In any event, I'm enjoying the chaos of the Republican campaigns.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

38. Right now, on Bill Press Show, some analyst (lol) is saying Open convention foregone conclusion

It won't be Trump

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

39. Analyst Daren Samuleson, Politico

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. The notion that Trump would let the nomination be stolen from him and not put up a fight is absurd.

The man loves to fight and has the ego the size of a small country. He would run 3rd party and siphon off at least 25% of the Republican vote.

Oh, all his fire would be directed at the party that stole the nomination from him.

Hillary-45%
Kashich-30%
Trump- 25%

[Arkana]

43. It won't be 25%, but it doesn't have to be.

Even if it's like 15%, it will doom any GOP candidate in the electoral college.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. Split the difference-20%

His whole platform will be the GOP are bought and paid for crooks. He won't even bother Hillary.

[SheenaR]

46. If that's the case

There's a good chance there is no electoral majority and the House hands the election to Kasich

[morningfog]

47. I've read that analysis before and don't buy it.

Red states would split, but Hillary would walk with plenty of electoral votes.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. Much more likely to be a reprise of 1992 with the Democrats winning pluralities in 32 states...

Trump won't win one state outright...What he will do is swing many stares to the Democrats. In a three way race, FL, VA, and NC are gone for the Republicans...



No Electoral College...

[SheenaR]

50. You very well may be right

I honestly posted it because I think people forget that niche in the electoral process sometimes. No question a Trump 3rd party run would hurt the Republicans.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

52. Perot won 20% of the vote and 0 Electoral College Votes.

[Tarc]

36. It doesn't actually matter who the GOP nominee is, they will be buried for different reasons

If Trump wins outright, or survives the convention shenanigans, many persons of color will be mobilized against him. He has demonized Muslims, Latinos, and pretty much all the rest at one point or another. They way he has treated Megyn Kelly and even Carly Fiorina will some conservative women against him not to mention many the moderate to liberal ones.

If Trump is not the nominee, it will only come to be via convention shenanigans. If that happens, Trump will wage a bitter holy war against the GOP, while we sit back and toast the marshmallows over their political corpses.

[FSogol]

37. LOL, hope you saved the receipt for that crystal ball.

[RiverLover]

40. Moneyed Interests have bought both of them.

Shades of grey.

[Arkana]

42. Hahahaha, no they won't.

If Trump does not get the nomination now, he WILL run third-party--or at least make life miserable enough for the anointed nominee that there's no way they win.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

49. I covered that in #16. Open Convention is happening. Politico agrees

[DemocratSinceBirth]

57. Respectfully, you never answered it...

What do you think a man of Trump's inestimable ego is going to do if he feels he was screwed?

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

58. Apparently, the R Party doesn't care what happens. That's all that matters. I don't need to answer

that question.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

59. Kind of spoils it for Kasich with...

Kind of spoils it for Kasich with Trump running around the country telling his supporters that the Republicans stole the election from him and them and now me and you must punish them.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

63. But they may still have leverage with Cooterville because of SCOTUS.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

64. I don't believe Trump's supporters will act in anything that resembles a rational manner.

As evidence I point to the man they support.

[Agnosticsherbet]

53. In some alternate world, Marvel Multiverse-616 perhaps, that will happen.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

56. Do a little digging. Start with post #54

[Agnosticsherbet]

62. I agree it will likely be contested. I don't think that Kasich will be the beneficiary.

Giving it to him will alienate a sufficient number of far right Republicans that vomit at the thought of Kasich.

I will say that Kasich has a slightly higher chance of being a selected nominee than Romney.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

67. Kasich is the only one polling favorably. Don't know why they'd go with an unknown commodity

[Agnosticsherbet]

69. A brokered convention is to save their vision of the Republican Party.

including the loss of the Senate and big losses, though not the complete loss, of the House and State races.

I don't think they expect to win the White House.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

72. Hmm... I don't understand how they hope to accomplish that by an open convention.

????

[Agnosticsherbet]

74. The leadershp is scared of Trump, and convinced that voters will turn out in big numbers

that will translate to the Senate, House, and State Offices.

If he wins, he is likely to be a transformative figure in the way that Reagan changed the Republican Party. He is not considered a conservative and is not beholden to the party elite as is most other candidates.

It is telling that Cruz, the most hated Republican in the Senate by other Republicans, is considered a safer bet.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

76. Oh, oh, got it. I still think they want SCOTUS so they'll be willing to shoot the moon for POTUS.

So you think they've given up on SCOTUS?

[Agnosticsherbet]

83. I think their first priority is saving their control of their party.

The rest is cake.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

54. Check out @dsamuelsohn on Twitter. There's a YouTube link to the Bill Press Show

at around 1:54:00 he starts talking about, in no uncertain terms, the GOP convention will be contested (his word) for the first time in forever. This conversation took place about an hour ago, maybe less.

[Gothmog]

60. Kasisch is benefiting from the same lack of vetting that is helping sanders

Sanders is doing well in match up polls because he has not been vetted https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/democrats-would-be-insane-to-nominate-bernie-sanders/2016/01/26/0590e624-c472-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html?hpid=hp_opinions-for-wide-side_opinion-card-a%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

Sanders and his supporters boast of polls showing him, on average, matching up slightly better against Trump than Clinton does. But those matchups are misleading: Opponents have been attacking and defining Clinton for a quarter- century, but nobody has really gone to work yet on demonizing Sanders.

Watching Sanders at Monday night’s Democratic presidential forum in Des Moines, I imagined how Trump — or another Republican nominee — would disembowel the relatively unknown Vermonter.

The first questioner from the audience asked Sanders to explain why he embraces the “socialist” label and requested that Sanders define it “so that it doesn’t concern the rest of us citizens.”

Sanders, explaining that much of what he proposes is happening in Scandinavia and Germany (a concept that itself alarms Americans who don’t want to be like socialized Europe), answered vaguely: “Creating a government that works for all of us, not just a handful of people on the top — that’s my definition of democratic socialism.”

But that’s not how Republicans will define socialism — and they’ll have the dictionary on their side. They’ll portray Sanders as one who wants the government to own and control major industries and the means of production and distribution of goods. They’ll say he wants to take away private property. That wouldn’t be fair, but it would be easy. Socialists don’t win national elections in the United States .

Sanders on Monday night also admitted he would seek massive tax increases — “one of the biggest tax hikes in history,” as moderator Chris Cuomo put it — to expand Medicare to all. Sanders, this time making a comparison with Britain and France, allowed that “hypothetically, you’re going to pay $5,000 more in taxes,” and declared, “W e will raise taxes, yes we will.” He said this would be offset by lower health-insurance premiums and protested that “it’s demagogic to say, oh, you’re paying more in taxes.”

Well, yes — and Trump is a demagogue.

Sanders also made clear he would be happy to identify Democrats as the party of big government and of wealth redistribution. When Cuomo said Sanders seemed to be saying he would grow government “bigger than ever,” Sanders didn’t quarrel, saying, “P eople want to criticize me, okay,” and “F ine, if that’s the criticism, I accept it.”

Sanders accepts it, but are Democrats ready to accept ownership of socialism, massive tax increases and a dramatic expansion of government? If so, they will lose.

Match up polls are worthless because these polls do not measure what would happen to Sanders in a general election where Sanders is very vulnerable to negative ads. Kaisch is also benefiting from the same lack of vetting. If Kasich became the nominee, his horrible record on women's rights and Planned Parenthood would be great grounds for attack

[1StrongBlackMan]

65. Posted to for later. eom.

[Sheepshank]

70. Kasich is as unvetted as Bernie.....no valid comparison to be had yet n/t

[EndElectoral]

73. Take it to the bank. It's the Swing States!

Repubs are stupid, but they are looking at matchups and the swing states. They know Kasich taking OH would be huge in the election.

http://news.yahoo.com/swing-states-states-decide-2016-214642656.html

The three biggest Swing States in the above article are Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. Kasich took 956,762 popular votes in a multi candidate field in OH. Clinton had 679,266 votes or almost 300K less. Kasich is formidable in OH.

Kasich didn't fare as well in Florida where Trump and HRC won handily, and HRC beat Trump by 20K votes there. If Trump is not in will GOP loyalists in Florida vote for Kasich. Over a half million voters in Florida voted GOP in the primary overall to Dems so if the party can get out the Trump vote for Kasich there it could be interesting.

PA hasn't voted yet.

[1StrongBlackMan]

75. It may, indeed, be Kasich v HRC; but, I think you are way off ...

Head to heads, at this stage are very unreliable ... especially, in this case. The projected numbers for, both, Kasich AND Bernie are way higher than they would be in the General Election, because: 1) Kasich has not been the focus of any intra-partisan attacks ... that has been reserved for the gop front-runner. Trump hasn't even mentioned Kasich (to my knowledge); and, 2) neither Kasich or Sanders have been the focus of (significant) inter-partisan attacks ... those attacks have been focused on HRC and trump. This lack of focused attacks buoys, both, Bernie and Kasich's numbers.

But that said, Kasich is unlikely to "clobber" either Sanders or HRC. Most prominent in my reasoning is that however Kasich gets the nomination, either through an "open" (aka, Brokered) convention or "contested" (aka, a floor fought) convention, trump's camp is full of "true believers" who make the "Bernie or Bust" crowd look like indecisive squishies.

If trump gets the number going into their convention and he walks out without the nomination; there will be full out rebellion among his supporters (not to mention, "principled" party folks), who will refuse to support the gop nominee, whoever that might be, or whoever the Democrats put up. And, given trump's ego, should he get the number and not get the nomination, I fully expect him to mount a 3rd-Party challenge. This would ensure a Democratic win, no matter who we put up.

Now, if trump gets close to the number going into their convention and he walks out without the nomination, his supporters will cry "MOMENTUM!!!" and whine about how trump was cheated by the establishment and, likely, refuse to support the gop nominee, whoever that might be, or whoever the Democrats put up. And, again, given trump's ego, I expect him to mount a 3rd-Party challenge ... unless the gop offers him a great deal.

If trump goes into their convention, short of the number and he walks out without the nomination, his supporters will, again, cry "MOMENTUM!!!" and whine about how trump was cheated by the establishment and, likely, refuse to support the gop nominee, whoever that might be, unless trump makes a big show of passing the torch to the gop nominee. Given, for a third time, trump's ego, he is unlikely to endorse the gop nominee ... unless the gop offers him a great deal.

I can't believe I'm writing this; but, a trump nomination is the only chance for the gop to turn out any numbers in 2016 ... but that said, a trump nomination will result in a Democratic win.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

86. Took you a while LOL but I like where you ended up, yes, I too believe and PRAY

that a Trump candidacy assures the White House to the Democratic Party, regardless of who the candidate is.

There is more to what you are saying, though, I wonder who is noticing it...

[1StrongBlackMan]

87. LOL ...

You noticed!

But I fear I'm on too many ignore lists for what I was getting at to sink in.

[revbones]

77. The answer is clear

pick Sanders who beats Kasich...

[1StrongBlackMan]

82. No ... That is not the answer ... or, at least, the answer is not clear ...

Head to heads, at this stage, are very unreliable ... especially, in this case.

The projected numbers for, both, Kasich AND Bernie are way higher than they would be in the General Election, because: 1) Kasich has not been the focus of any intra-partisan attacks ... that has been reserved for the gop front-runner. Trump hasn't even mentioned Kasich (to my knowledge); and, 2) neither Kasich or Sanders have been the focus of (significant) inter-partisan attacks ... those attacks have been focused on HRC and trump. This lack of focused attacks buoys, both, Bernie and Kasich's numbers.

But that said, Kasich is unlikely to "clobber" either Sanders or HRC. Most prominent in my reasoning is that however Kasich gets the nomination, either through an "open" (aka, Brokered) convention or "contested" (aka, a floor fought) convention, trump's camp is full of "true believers" who make the "Bernie or Bust" crowd look like indecisive squishies.

[revbones]

84. Sure.

Anything not 100% positive for Clinton is unreliable or simply a right-wing talking point.

Guess that's why BNR and other "media" outlets (propaganda sites owned by Hillar super-PAC) got so hyped up about her beating Trump with women. Or any of the other times they and her followers here have used those matchups...

The hypocrisy is hilarious.

[ghostsinthemachine]

78. I've been saying that for a long time

Months.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

79. Yeah, I just saw the national poll this morning with Kasich beating Clinton and it all made sense

Open convention, no SCOTUS vote. I think they really want POTUS.

[noamnety]

80. Their convention is first, right?

Which means whoever they pick, the dems have an opportunity to pick the candidate with the best chance of beating their pick.

(not that we will take the opportunity, just saying it exists)