Telling poll numbers from Wisconsin

[ChairmanAgnostic]

Although they rate all of the candidates for their upcoming primary, Marquette Law School's poll is telling.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/

Candidate Net favorable Net within party Net among independents Net within other party
Kasich 6 9 11 -4
Rubio -8 47 -12 -46
Sanders 11 51 21 -56
Cruz -18 46 -31 -56
Clinton -18 55 -29 -89
Trump -43 0 -43 -76

Among Indies, Clinton is -29 net negative, while Bernie is +21!
True, among dems, she has 55 and he has 51. What is telling is that Sanders (and Kusich) are the only ones with net positive numbers. Clinton is tied with cruz, and Trump has some real problems in that state.


One other point of interest. Since he dropped out of the presidential nomination race, Scott Walker had a -39 net negative rating. It is the same now. Or the end of February when they ran this poll. I suspect that there has not been much change. Although Bernie signs are popping up, according to my Wisconsin buddies.

[SheilaT]

1. If I'm reading that right,

Sanders is the only candidate still in the race with a net favorable within his own party.

The only one with worse ratings than Clinton is Trump, so we could correctly characterize them as Hillary the Hated and Drumpf the Despised.

That does not bode well at all in a general election between those two.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

4. according to my friends, Scruz has been investing time and money

heavily, and raising some interest and money in the process.

If Trump loses to Scruz, we can expect an open convention, riots, a group of armed thugs who will want to go to Cleveland armed and delusional, AND probably the most entertaining political event in my lifetime.

[lewebley3]

9. Sanders has not been vetted: and he not going to be the nominee:

So, Sanders has not been attack: that's why he has
a good favorable rating.

He just a nice little old, until he becomes threat to someone:
then his record would be fair game.

[SheilaT]

12. Explain what you mean by vetted.

That keeps on being thrown out there by Hillary supporters, and I don't think that word means what you think it means.

[lewebley3]

15. He has not had his records or Doc's searched: or his attachment to

socialism explored. So far he is just a nice old man;
that would like to give free college away, and hates
business.

[SheilaT]

16. Somehow I doubt that Sanders has kept

some huge scandal cleverly hidden so far. He's been remarkably consistent in his views and voting for some thirty years now. Unlike some candidates I could name.

[Peace Patriot]

14. His record?

Brock is all over it. Clinton's rat who smeared Anita Hill. Only thing he could find to attack was Sander's arrest record.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

2. Hillary -10 since November

[Scuba]

3. Anecdotal evidence. I know it's not data, but ....

I've seen exactly one Trump sign in Wisconsin.

I've seen exactly one Jindal sign in Wisconsin.

I've seen exactly one Hillary sign in Wisconsin.

I've seen more Bernie signs than I can count.





I have seen several bumper stickers with Hillary's name on them. They all read "Hillary lied and 4 Americans died."


Tuesday's results should be interesting.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

5. same here in Colorado

the only hillary stickers are on right wing trucks - they are not nice

[CalvinballPro]

8. BBBBBEEEEENNNNNGGGGGHHHHHAAAAAZZZZZIIIII!!!!!11111

[ChairmanAgnostic]

6. Wow, how the mighty have fallen

SCruz is now beating Trump by 1-5 points. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_republican_presidential_primary-3763.html

Clinton is up only by 6 over Bernie
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_democratic_presidential_primary-3764.html

[geek tragedy]

7. That's an old poll, but I expect Sanders to win WI by 15-20 points.

He should net a similar number of delegates to what Clinton netted in North Carolina.

Clinton would do well to keep it within single digits in the land of Feingold (Feingold voters are Sanders voters).

[ChairmanAgnostic]

10. I felt that he was growing while she was fading.

[geek tragedy]

11. not really, WI was always a really, really good state for him.

demographics, open primary, Democrats there tend to be really, really liberal.

I doubt she was ever close there amongst likely voters.

[SheilaT]

17. Uh, oh, open primary.

Which means if he wins, and especially if he wins big, the Hillary group will totally dismiss it, as if a person can win the general election with only the voters of her political party, no Independents required.

[geek tragedy]

20. it is a safe prediction that the losers will dismiss it and winners will

overestimate its importance

[ChairmanAgnostic]

24. I was convinced he would pull out Illinois

after being 23 points down here.

I still think there were some unusual hmmmm things in our primary.

[geek tragedy]

25. The IL polling changed after MI--pollsters all changed their turnout models

and there was poll herding going on.

IL was always going to be a close state.

WI will not be close.

[Onlooker]

13. Looks like Kasich has it ...

... I guess Hillary and Bernie should drop out if he's the R nominee.

[Motown_Johnny]

19. Kasich is +6, Bernie is +11.

So you are half right.

[Onlooker]

21. Bernie and Kasich aren't running against each other

My point was about the general election, in which case looks like Kasich will get most of the crossover votes.

[Motown_Johnny]

22. There is not enough information there for your conclusion.

It is very likely that the (D)s who have a favorable opinion of Kasich will still vote for the (D) nominee.

Without breaking down exactly who does and does not view Bernie/Hillary favorably and then asking those people if they view Kasich favorably, we can't know what will happen as far as crossover votes go.

[Onlooker]

23. I agree; these polls don't tell us much

Hillary may be more unpopular right now, but what will happen in the general election when Republicans play up his Castro comments, the VA scandal under his watch, his family on his campaign payroll, and anything else they can possibly find? His negatives will go up. Republicans seem to want him more than Hillary so have never really attacked him.

[Motown_Johnny]

18. When it comes to net favorable ratings, there is a very clear difference and trend.