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[Csainvestor]

This message was self-deleted by its author (Csainvestor) on Mon Mar 28, 2016, 06:14 PM. When the original post in a discussion thread is self-deleted, the entire discussion thread is automatically locked so new replies cannot be posted.

[geek tragedy]

1. You forgot about Virginia,, NV, and IA

You also forgot that the big blue states have yet to vote--NY, CA, PA, NJ.

Think Bernie would have won an early February contest in NY?

[Csainvestor]

4. Of the blue states that already voted Bernie is leading huge

What i am saying, is if the blue states came first, Bernie would be leading the delegate count in a landslide.

[geek tragedy]

6. most blue states haven't voted yet.

so you really can't say that.

now, if he blows her out in NY, NJ, CA, and PA, then you'll have an argument

[dogman]

2. Are OH and FL blue states?

I usually hear them described as swing states. Of course swing states are important but there is no reason to think that either candidate could not also win these states in a General election. I do believe your contention is correct however, momentum has an effect.

[geek tragedy]

3. momentum affects media coverage, not subsequent primary votes

Clinton racked up victory after victory in 2008, even though she was already toast.

Sanders blew Clinton out in NH, gained zero momentum (lost NV and SC)

Clinton won super Tuesday big time, and then lost Michigan.

Sanders got a huge win in Michigan, then got swept in OH/FL/IL/MO/NC.

Clinton has lost a bunch of races since sweeping OH/FL/IL/MO/NC.

[dogman]

10. Media coverage is important.

Bernie had almost none early on. That is why I think a different schedule would have affected the race. Momentum ebbs and flows, the importance is momentum in conjunction with timing. A lot of people like to jump on the bandwagon. Winning attracts support.

[geek tragedy]

11. Iowa and NH were very favorable states for him.

We can stack it the other way too. Imagine the race began with:

Virginia
Ohio
Florida

Race would have been over after three states.

[dogman]

13. Of course.

This is just conjecture. I personally believe that either candidate could win the same states in a GE. It is more important to look at turnout. We had better GOTV for the General. Looking at the total votes for Rs and Ds is not encouraging. Of course we can't see the raw votes in caucus states and Independents are not reflected in closed primary states.

[Csainvestor]

5. I'm using 2012 map

In 2012 Ohio and Florida went blue.

[dogman]

7. Wikipedia uses last four Presidential races.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_states_and_blue_states

[JI7]

12. They are more purple

[Agschmid]

8. This is a primary, this red vs. blue thing is non-sense.

[geek tragedy]

9. #berniemath

2012 blue states won by Sanders:

NH:+6
MN+15
CO: +10
VT: +16
ME: +7
MI: +4
HI: +9
WA: +47

Total: Sanders +114

2012 blue states won by Clinton:

IA: +2
NV: +5
MA: +1
VA: +29
FL: +68
OH: +19
IL: even

Total: Clinton +124

[Csainvestor]

14. when the delegate counts finish in WA and other states i am seeing a +20

Your WA estimate is too low. There are more delegates coming Bernies way.

[geek tragedy]

15. How is him netting 47 delegates out of 100 too low?

The delegate won totals are per 538