2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe Great Debate Why won’t Sanders quit the race? Because he’s winning.
The patter of establishment calls for Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) to end his campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination has built into a hailstorm.
Bye, bye, Bernie, the Washington Post editorialized prematurely, echoing numerous talking heads. Politico reports Democratic pols are quietly urging him to pack it in. Even President Barack Obama suggested to deep-pocket donors that its time to fold in behind former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. (They already have, Mr. President, they already have).
Some of this is sowed by the Clinton campaign. But most is simple foolishness. It would be inconceivable for Sanders to stop now.
After all, he still has a chance to win the nomination. Sanders just swept through the West, winning five of six contests by stunning margins. In addition, he isnt just a candidate hes a cause. Sanders seeks to build a movement that can make the political revolution needed to transform the country, not simply win the White House. That means a political movement powerful enough to both get big money out of politics and pass Sanders agenda. His supporters want and expect him to drive that effort right through the Democratic National Convention and beyond.
Admittedly, the odds against Sanders winning the nomination are long, but they are far better than when the relatively unknown democratic socialist launched his insurgency. Nearly half of all voters have yet to cast a ballot. Sanders continues to introduce himself to more and more of them. Hes already won 15 primaries and caucuses, and lost four more by the barest whisker. And he keeps rising.
For the first time, the most recent Bloomberg poll shows him edging ahead of Clinton among registered Democratic voters. Other national polls consistently show her once forbidding lead continuing to narrow. Sanders draws large and mostly enthusiastic crowds and continues to rouse young people across the country. His supporters are eager to fuel his campaign. He outraised Clinton dramatically in February $43 million to $30 million, as his 2 million small donors contributed more than her deep-pocket investors. In fact, more than 70 percent of Clintons donations have come from large donors, who are maxing out in increasing numbers.
Don't believe the haters Bernie's gonna win!
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2016/03/28/why-wont-sanders-quit-the-race-because-hes-winning/
GreenPartyVoter
(73,393 posts)Nonhlanhla
(2,074 posts)Bernie is not winning. He has just won a few caucuses, and yes, he won them well. But he would have to match that kind of performance in the upcoming primaries, and that looks less likely. The most likely scenario is that Hillary wins Wisconsin narrowly, so they split the delegates more or less evenly, and then she wins New York, Maryland, and Pennsylvania handily, taking a majority of those delegates and increasing her already large delegate lead. By the time New Jersey (where she will likely win) and California (where they might split it evenly, although it does look like she might get a modest win there) come around, Hillary will already be far ahead of Bernie in pledged delegates. All of this means that the most likely scenario is that she heads towards the convention with a significant delegate lead (more than Obama had in 2008), plus most of the superdelegates ready to vote for her.
Where is Bernie's winning path? He would have to pull huge upsets in places like New York and Pennsylvania. It is not impossible, hut it is so likely that a headline that claims that "he is winning" is painfully absurd.
CorporatistNation
(2,546 posts)While at the same time becoming acquainted with the white haired guy from Vermont who in contrast to his world renowned opponent more often than not is telling the TRUTH and is in this race for the people rather than his opponent who is in it for herself and her BIG BUCK Backers from Wall Street et al.
Nonhlanhla
(2,074 posts)Bernie promises to deliver big, without any plan or track record of supporting a large scale revolution that would make it possible? No problem.
Bernie's numbers for his proposals don't add up? No problem.
Bernie's entire foreign policy expertise consists of "I did not vote for the IWR"? No problem.
Bernie is significantly behind in delegates and unlikely to catch up? No problem - HE's WINNING because FEELINGS.