2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Sanders | The Rebellion Will NOT Go Away
2- Will it be led by humanitarian populism from the left, or authoritarian populism from the right?
Why is this rebellion permanent, at least until conditions improve? Because life in the U.S. is getting worse in a way that can be felt by a critical mass of people, by enough people to disrupt the Establishment machine with their anger. And because that worsening is seen to be permanent. Bottom line, people are reaching the breaking point, and we're watching that play out in the 2016 electoral race.
Yes, It Is a Rebellion
There's no other way to see the Sanders and Trump surges except as a popular rebellion, a rebellion of the people against their "leaders." If one of them, Sanders or Trump, is on the ballot in November running against an Establishment alternative, Sanders or Trump, the anti-Establishment candidate, will win. That candidate will cannibalize votes from the Establishment side. That is, Sanders will attract a non-zero percentage of Trump-supporting voters if Cruz or Paul Ryan runs against him, and he will win. By the same token, Trump will attract a non-zero percentage Sanders-supporting voters if Clinton runs against him, and she will lose to him. (In fact, we have a good early indication of what percentage of Sanders supporters Clinton will lose 20% of Sanders primary voters say they will sit out the general election if Clinton is the candidate, and 9% say they will vote for Trump over Clinton. By this measure, Clinton loses 30% of the votes that went to Sanders in the primary election.)
If they run against each other, Sanders and Trump, Sanders will win. You don't have to take my word for it (or the word of any number of other writers). You can click here and see what almost every head-to-head poll says. As I look at it today, the average of the last six head-to-head polls is Sanders by almost 18% over Trump. In electoral terms, that's a wipeout. For comparison, Obama beat McCain by 6% and Romney by 4%. Note that Sanders is still surging, winning some states with 80% of the vote (across all states he's won, he averages 67% of the vote), while Trump seems to have hit a ceiling below 50%, even in victory. The "socialist" tag is not only not sticking, it's seen positively by his supporters. And finally, just imagine a Trump-Sanders debate. Sanders' style is teflon to Trumps', and again, I'm not alone in noticing this.
cont'
http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-rebellion-will-not-go-away.html#willrichstanddown
onehandle
(51,122 posts)MineralMan
(151,269 posts)Revolution. He uses that word. Rebellion. No, he doesn't use that word.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)MineralMan
(151,269 posts)Gets posted on DU. Wheee....
Segami
(14,923 posts)from the grand whisperer of these boards.
Keep it kicked.........thank you...
carry on......
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)Uncle Joe
(65,137 posts)Thanks for the thread, Segami.
Segami
(14,923 posts)floriduck
(2,262 posts)libdem4life
(13,877 posts)The Establishment is in a world of hurt, although it doesn't recognize it yet, what with Denial being all the rage today.
There's a long way yet to go, and if HRC becomes the nominee, too many targets for the opposition. We can demur all day long on her record as apparently Good Democrats are to do, but negative content emerges almost daily.
Sander's problem is name recognition...lack of it. Clinton's problem is, name, as well which propelled her automatically with a long lead. Now the problem with the name and the Foundation that bears it may be the end of the second run. Bill in the White House again? Hmmm.
Bernie vs. Trump = President Sanders
felix_numinous
(5,198 posts)and this movement is larger than the election. We have to make different choices to climb out of this hole they have dug for us.
Voodoo economics created all the zombies who were brainwashed to believe in the magical thinking of trickle down--that people who amassed great fortunes somehow benevolently care for the Earth and all her creatures-- and we should obey them because $$$=god, wisdom, authority.
Fourty years later we shake off the fairy dust and realize we've been had. But better late than never-- and we CAN co create another future by finding more honest allies than the ones that just want to load us all on a train bound for a dystopian police state future and more robbery.
Segami
(14,923 posts)They're not interested in putting more points on the board. They're ahead, they have possession of the ball and control the game.....UNLESS they fumble.....Refusing to debate Bernie in New York says it all.
But this is not a football game and the people are not fans but voters, who will ultimately determine If or WHEN this game is over or IF they push this match into overtime.