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Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:20 PM

So if Hillary leads in pledged delegates going into the convention

And her 400 or so super delegates vote for her she wins the nomination right?

Bernie is behind about 250 pledged delegates. I don't see where he makes that up.

WI could help him close in but I don't see him winning big in NY, NJ or PA. He will fall behind again by a larger amount.

No state is winner take all and some are closed primaries. Only two caucus states are left.

23 replies, 4713 views

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Arrow 23 replies Author Time Post
Reply So if Hillary leads in pledged delegates going into the convention (Original post)
upaloopa Mar 2016 OP
Lucinda Mar 2016 #1
HERVEPA Mar 2016 #6
Lucinda Mar 2016 #7
HERVEPA Mar 2016 #14
Lucinda Mar 2016 #18
HERVEPA Apr 2016 #23
dogman Mar 2016 #2
Garrett78 Mar 2016 #20
dogman Mar 2016 #21
Garrett78 Mar 2016 #22
cosmicone Mar 2016 #3
DesertFlower Mar 2016 #4
Bluenorthwest Mar 2016 #5
upaloopa Mar 2016 #9
HERVEPA Mar 2016 #15
Marr Mar 2016 #16
morningfog Mar 2016 #8
upaloopa Mar 2016 #10
morningfog Mar 2016 #12
catnhatnh Mar 2016 #11
geek tragedy Mar 2016 #13
rhett o rick Mar 2016 #17
Hydra Mar 2016 #19

Response to upaloopa (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:24 PM

1. Yawp.

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Response to Lucinda (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:40 PM

6. That's spelled with an "n", not a "p"

 

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Response to HERVEPA (Reply #6)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:41 PM

7. I'm not tired of my candidate. So no yawning from me.

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Response to Lucinda (Reply #7)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 11:05 PM

14. You have tremendous staying power to not be tired of the same post from the same

 

poster for the 1000th time.

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Response to HERVEPA (Reply #14)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 11:30 PM

18. My candidate is winning. That never gets old!

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Response to Lucinda (Reply #18)

Fri Apr 1, 2016, 06:59 AM

23. OK. I understand now Charlie. Winning.

 

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Response to upaloopa (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:25 PM

2. Lots of ifs.

http://polichart.com/interactives/bern-path I guess you can follow along here.

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Response to dogman (Reply #2)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 11:41 PM

20. I was glad someone finally used one of the delegate calculators to show how Sanders could win.

But, as expected, it's utterly unrealistic. It has Sanders winning big (by anywhere from 8 to 16 points) in NY, PA, NJ and CA. And it has him getting a higher than expected percentage in both MD and Washington DC. Even then, Sanders barely wins a majority of the pledged delegates. So, the "Bern Path" only goes to show just how unlikely it is that he'll win. I suppose this is why repeated requests for someone to demonstrate how he could win went unanswered.

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #20)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 11:47 PM

21. Some will be higher, some lower.

This let's you track it in an easy format. We have three months to find out. Unlikely is not impossible, it's a race.

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Response to dogman (Reply #21)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 11:53 PM

22. At least 2 posters on DU created delegate calculators.

And people have been invited to use those calculators to demonstrate a realistic path to the nomination for Sanders. It has not yet been done.

I understand that nobody can predict with 100% accuracy what the numbers will be in each state ("some will be higher, some lower," as you said). But the "Bern Path" is nowhere close to realistic. It's beyond unlikely.

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Response to upaloopa (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:25 PM

3. Yep ... but whiners and complainers will still go on n/t

 

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Response to upaloopa (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:31 PM

4. let's hope hillary wins more states.

i'm shocked at how far bernie has come. what scares me is if he is the nominiee the republicans will tear him apart. right now he hasn't been vetted.

if for some reason he did become prez not much would get done, but that's better than having a repub.

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Response to upaloopa (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:34 PM

5. upaloopa predicts:

 

Dec 19-"If Bernie doesn't win IA and NH he is done."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251919512

June 10th "He won't make it passed Super Tuesday."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017271119#post3


So your ability to predict future outcomes is not all that impressive. It's more narrative material than actual prediction.

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Response to Bluenorthwest (Reply #5)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:49 PM

9. Well Bernie is still losing so it doesn't much matter

The shame of it is we could be helping to win the general by now. As it is we have to cut the time down to a few months

Bernie isn't helping the country one bit with his ego trip campaign.

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Response to upaloopa (Reply #9)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 11:06 PM

15. Fucking obnoxious and cklueless.

 

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Response to Bluenorthwest (Reply #5)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 11:09 PM

16. LOL, +1

 

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Response to upaloopa (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:44 PM

8. Bernie is behind 228 pledged delegates. The pledged delegate

 

winner will be the nominee.

Bernie needs 56.5% of the remaining pledged delegates. It is not impossible.

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Response to morningfog (Reply #8)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:50 PM

10. Sure it is

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Response to upaloopa (Reply #10)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:54 PM

12. No it is not. It is very hard, perhaps improbable or unlikely, even.

 

But not impossible.

Since you like math, an example. If he had to win 125% of the remaining pledged delegates, that would be impossible. Kasich, for example, cannot mathematically get to the delegate count on the GOP side. It is impossible.

Bernie has to pretty much not lose any state left. He needs to win some states by large margins and at least break even in others. He damn near needs to run the table with wins. Hard to do. Unlikely. Not impossible.

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Response to upaloopa (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:52 PM

11. Nope

There's a "win" number I forget but it is possible to enter the convention without a pledged delegate win and that is so even if she leads by "pledged" "super delegates". And that is because they are not. If it goes into the convention open all bets are off.

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Response to upaloopa (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 10:55 PM

13. Whoever leads in pledged delegates is the nominee. nt

 

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Response to upaloopa (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 11:24 PM

17. It will be a sad day for the 99% if Clinton-Sachs wins the nomination. More job losses,

 

more war deaths, stronger Patriot Act and domestic spying legislation, more deregulation of big banks, etc.

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Response to upaloopa (Original post)

Thu Mar 31, 2016, 11:31 PM

19. If she wins pledged by even 50.1%, she wins

The bigger question is if she doesn't and basically tells everyone to got to hell, she's the candidate and the party establishment says that's how it is.

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