***** Official Pre-Debate Electoral College Predictions Thread *****

[Coyotl]

Last edited Mon Oct 22, 2012, 04:01 PM - Edit history (1)

Get out your prognostication tools. This site is a good place to begin:

What's your forecast for the 2012 presidential election? Make your own electoral map:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

Here is mine:



A good place online for publishing your screen captures is here: http://tinypic.com/
Also, I think you can just capture the URL of the HuffP page after creating your prediction.

Akin will ruin Missouri for Romney, with women turning the red tide blue.
Hispanic voters are not fairly represented in Arizona polls and will make AZ blue.
Some polls already have Obama clearly in the lead in HuffP toss-up states.

So, an incumbent President outperforms the 2008 tally,
no surprise given Romnesia and the fact that Sarah Palin was a better V-P choice.

[potatoslayer]

1. Overly optimistic

I doubt Indiana is blue. I work in se Indiana (live in Ohio) and the racism I hear is appalling. I think we will be above 300 but not by much

[Robbins]

2. well

I am not sure who wins Florida,NC,and Virginia.But I think Obama takes Ohio,PA,NH,Wi,Michigan,Iowa,Nevada,and CO

[mim89]

3. Obama 277 - Romney 261

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=NEb

Swing States

Obama - Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin. Michigan & Pennsylvannia
Romeny - Florida, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina & New Hampshire

[Actionman]

11. Romney is not getting Florida or Virginia

and he may not get North Carolina...

Why do I say this? Women, republican women, not all but enough, are going into the both and vote for Obama. They will deny it to keep peace in their homes and socials gatherings. They hear their husbands relating to the Akin and Ryan way of thinking about women.

[Mutiny In Heaven]

4. This is what I've got...I'm very confident.

Which runs contrary to the make up of my map, but 270 is what counts, and I am near-certain that President Obama will cross the finishing line. Unless there's debate catastrophe or an horrific jobs report, that is.

[IMG][/IMG]

[DFW]

5. I'm getting up very early on November 7th for this

German News radio is doing an interview with me as a "Democrat Abroad," so I'd love to tell them such a tally, but putting Indiana, Virginia, Florida and North Carolina as blue is probably a little optimistic, considering how much Republicans are spending on electoral fraud and manipulation.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

19. you are going to bed?

[DFW]

29. Hell yeah, I'm going to bed.

Midnight here is 6 PM EST. I'll be getting up at 5 AM. That is 11PM the night before (Tuesday) EST.

The White House should be clear by then, but some of the important Congressional races might not be. Besides, as far as I'm concerned, the White House is already clear. It's only a question of how many disenfranchised voters whose voices would have made a difference, and how many Republican-programmed vote-counting machines are giving off false result data.

[yellowcanine]

6. Even without Indiana and Arizona (no one is giving those to Obama right now) that map is

too optimistic. Obama is unlikely to win Virginia, NC AND Florida. He will probably take Virginia, imo and I think FL and NC will both be in play election night but Obama is unlikely to take them both.

[courseofhistory]

7. Mine...

[img][/img]

[yellowcanine]

9. Pretty much where I am but I would switch Iowa and NC.

Although I do believe that NC will be in play election night as will FL.

[JackN415]

8. I call 324 Obama

[struggle4progress]

10. Here's my personal theory:

[lordcommander]

12. 347 for Obama

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/custom-presidential-election-map#njaddnjaneaajenae

It will be the same as 2008 but Robme will win Indiana, and thats it.

[MadBadger]

13. No chance in Indiana, Arizona, Missouri.

[woolldog]

14. I'll have what you're having.

[Proud Public Servant]

15. Obama 303, Romney 235

2012 map is the same as 2008, except Dems lose IN, NC, FL, and NE-2.

[MadBadger]

16. Obama 294, Romney 244

Obama carries Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire.

He loses Colorado, North Carolina, and Florida

[Tree-Hugger]

17. My results

Last edited Tue Oct 23, 2012, 01:00 AM - Edit history (1)

[IMG][/IMG]

[Coyotl]

23. To post image here, I did the following

A screen capture (Grab app on iMac, function key on a PC), then copy to PhotoShop, crop as needed, resize to 75%, then post image to tinypic.com and use the URL they provide here.

[Tree-Hugger]

31. Thank you! Editing my original, too. :-)

[IMG][/IMG]

[Laura PourMeADrink]

18. think they'll steal Wisconsin....So Obama 276; Wrongney 191

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/custom-presidential-election-map#njavdnjanwsajensw

[MSMITH33156]

20. I got

O 299, R 239

Swing states for Romney: NH, NC, FL,
O: VA, OH, WI, IA, CO, NV

[Dalai_1]

21. Kick & R n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

22. Obama: 299, Romney: 239

Obama carries the following swing states:

Colorado
Nevada
Iowa
Wisconsin
Ohio
Virginia

Romney carries the following swing states:

Florida
North Carolina
New Hampshire

[ellisonz]

24. Thar she blows!

[MSMITH33156]

25. Maybe I am just distrustful

of New Hampshire from 2000. I spent the entire recount drama looking at that map and thinking: "WHY??!?!??!?" It would have put Gore at 271 and made Florida moot.

[mim89]

28. Complete Fail

I love Al Gore, but that campaign just had too much fail associated with it. I like Donna Brazile as an analyst, but she was a terrible campaign manager, if Gore had better managers he would've won. I mean how do you fail when all you have to do is say we're going to continue the great things from the Clinton years.


.......still pisses me off.

[grantcart]

26. 318 to 220

[Coyotl]

27. Check out the cartogram version

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map#cartogram

[JiminyJominy]

30. I'm With

MadBadger

I think AS OF NOW we are looking at 294 EVs.

OP is wayyyy too optimistic. No way we get to that number.

[Coyotl]

32. Post-Debate: Who wants to revise Obama upward now?

[MadBadger]

34. No revisions from me.

[Coyotl]

33. HuffP now has Ohio as a tossup, Obama under 271, but the dabate will change that

Romney showed the world that he does not know where the Middle Eastern countries are located, finis!

[onecent]

35. Ohhhh I soooo hope you are correct about Aiken in Missouri, but i'm

seeing an awful lot of R & R signs in some small towns. However, the well populated areas closer to Kansas City I have seen alot more Obama signs than I did 4 years ago. ALOT more.

[Coyotl]

36. Mourdock just did his part to rape Akin