A rare productive lunch time: done voting and get a concession from a Republican

[JackN415]

Done voting.

But the interesting part is that I got a republican-leaning colleague to concede that Obama is winning. He is a moderately conservative independent, but very republican leaning.

I proposed of friendly wager (a coupon for dinner), I take Obama 294 EV and over. He refused. Counter proposed that he would take Obama under 330. So, he admitted that Obama over 294 is a losing bet for him.

But here is the more interesting bit: I argued that if Obama were a white President, it would be no contest right now. He said non-sense. I structured my argument this way:
- conservatively, I estimated 1/3 of Romney voters are against Obama because he is black. He agreed, he would accept even a higher percentage.
- If Obama were white, 1/4 of these might vote for him (a conservative estimate). He agreed the ball park figure.
- So, 1/12 of Romney supporters could swing for a white Obama. Let Romney support = 47%, 1/12 of 47% ~ 4% (round off from 3.92%). Then the swing would result in:
Obama = 49%+ 4% = 53%
Romney= 47%-4%=43%

This is an electoral landslide, like Clinton -Dole.

I challenged my colleague to really close his eyes and imagine a white Obama, incumbent with his achievement, compared with Romney with tax issue, 47% image, flip flop, and other things, and see if this estimation was reasonable. He thought for a while and said it might not be as much as my estimate but he could agree to a couple % swing.

So, I told him that if that were the case, then Obama is a good president, except for being black.

He had no counter argument.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. Good for you..........that was VERY clever!

You pwned him!

[Mutiny In Heaven]

2. I hate you, Peggy.

I was just about to say "pwned"!

[CaliforniaPeggy]

4. I'm sorry, lol!

I'd never used it before!

[JackN415]

5. Thanks. But couldn't get him to bet on a dinner gift card. :) n/t

[Stargazer09]

3. Great job!

I love your use of logic.

[JackN415]

6. Let people put money where their mouth is, and even give the spread, (O 294) and no taker.

[kag]

12. Yes. And your use of math.

That's something the R's can't seem to master.

[progressivebydesign]

7. Good job. But I still don't understand why they can't focus on the caucasian Obama.

I mean this seriously. It's as if being half black is somehow more ominous than being half caucasian.

[tblue37]

11. Sociologists call it the theory of hypo-descent, which means that

a mixed race individual is always assumed to belong 100% to the race considered more "subordinate," even if he has much less of that racial ancestry in his background.

Racist whites insisted on that in the US, especiall yin the South, because they could not tolerate the idea of treating a person with even "one drop" of blood from a race they despised as though that person in any way could be consideredto belong to the same racial group that they belonged to themselves.

[Flashmann]

8. It truly amazes me

You were able to take a cons hand and walk him down a path of irrefutable reason,to a conclusion that runs contrary to his sensibilities,without him,running into the woods,metaphorically,and screaming epitaphs.....

[JoePhilly]

9. Tell him that if Obama was a white Republican, the GOP would put his face on Mt Rushmore.

Just for getting Osama Bin Laden.

Of course, they'd put that white Republican's face on Mt Rushmore if he ...

- doubled the DOW
- saved the US auto industry
- prevented a 2nd great depression
- brought the UE down from a high of 10.2% to 7.8% in 3 years

Any of these for a white Republican President, and they'd be putting the guy's face on the $1 bill, renaming airports, renaing high schools, and every city would have its major road renamed to "White GOP President's name BLVD".

[roguevalley]

10. you are my new hero