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Mon Feb 27, 2012, 12:24 AM

PPP 2/26 poll for MI Romney 39 Santorum 37

Last edited Mon Feb 27, 2012, 12:49 PM - Edit history (2)

edited to add Romney has a 20 point lead in AZ.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/romney-takes-small-michigan-lead.html



Mitt Romney's taken a small lead over Rick Santorum in PPP's newest Michigan poll. He's at 39% to 37% for Santorum, 13% for Ron Paul, and 9% for Newt Gingrich. Compared to a week ago Romney's gained 6 points, while Santorum's just stayed in place.

Romney will go into election day with a large lead in the bank. Only 16% of Michigan voters say they've already cast their ballots, but Romney has a whooping 62-29 advantage over Santorum with that group. Santorum actually leads Romney 39-34 with those who are planning to cast their votes on Tuesday, but he'd need to win election day voters by even more than that to neutralize the advantage Romney's built up.

The last week of the campaign in Michigan has seen significant damage to Santorum's image with GOP voters in the state. His net favorability has declined 29 points from +44 (67/23) to now only +15 (54/39). Negative attacks on Romney meanwhile have had no negative effect with his favorability steady at +20 (57/37). Two weeks ago Santorum's net favorability in Michigan was 34 points better than Romney's. Now Romney's is 5 points better than Santorum's. Those kinds of wild swings are the story of the GOP race




The cross tabs show that only 7% of liberals indicated that they are voting. If just a couple percent more vote for Santorum, or if there were just a couple answering in a deceptive way then Santorum would be ahead.

Crosstabs here

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MI_226.pdf

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Feb 27, 2012, 12:33 AM

1. MI might end up coming down to who turns out if it really is that close.

Last edited Mon Feb 27, 2012, 01:11 AM - Edit history (1)

If Santorum loses MI though i'll say he himself is as much to blame as Romney, his bad debate hurt him but his slide in the polls started before that.

His complete inability to not sound like a religious freakzoid for a day has hurt him even in the GOP primary

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Response to Mr.Turnip (Reply #1)

Mon Feb 27, 2012, 01:11 AM

2. Given Colorado (and how Romney lost despite taking Denver Metro)... Santorum might have the edge.

Santorum brought out more people in El Paso County than Romney did in the entire Denver Metro Area. Pretty significant.

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #2)

Mon Feb 27, 2012, 01:15 AM

3. Maybe, but you have to remember that was a Caucus state.

However Santorum DID out perform his South Carolina Polls by about 6 or 7 points, infact he's outperformed in pretty much every state save for Florida so he can take a bit of comfort there.

the thing is though Santorum did not OVERWHELMINGLY lose Denver metro, he won a county and lost most of the others by around 10%.

Maybe some of Gingrich's supporters will have a last minute change of heart and vote for Santo, that seemed to happen in MN, though again Caucus state.

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Response to Mr.Turnip (Reply #3)

Mon Feb 27, 2012, 01:25 AM

4. That is very true, definitely. Caucuses have their own problems.

Insightful points.

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #4)

Mon Feb 27, 2012, 01:51 AM

6. Thank you. As I said before I think this will come down to who's base turns out.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Feb 27, 2012, 01:28 AM

5. Nobody polled me and I'm voting for Sanctimonium on Tuesday in MI

Please encourage your friends in MI to do the same.

I wanna see the GOP keep swallowing its tail.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Feb 27, 2012, 02:11 AM

7. Rick Santorum deserves our prayers for victory on Tuesday -

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Feb 27, 2012, 02:30 AM

8. Mitt's super PAC money is his hero once again

The real message here is just how very effective negative ads are. Mitt only wins when he destroys his opponents with massive amounts of negative ads. Mitt had 3 to 1 advantage and it turned a guaranteed lose into a possible win.

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Response to UCmeNdc (Reply #8)

Mon Feb 27, 2012, 02:41 AM

9. Honestly I think Santorum's all has as much to do with what he's been saying for the past two weeks.

As it has to do with negative ads.

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Response to UCmeNdc (Reply #8)

Mon Feb 27, 2012, 09:41 AM

11. Agreed!

he has shown the capacity to drag down the anti-romney candidate with negative ads in these big ticket states.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Mon Feb 27, 2012, 06:14 AM

10. momentum

“Momentum in Michigan is completely on Mitt Romney’s side,” said Dean Debnam,
President of Public Policy Polling. “He’s amassed a large lead with absentee voters and it
will take a huge turnout on election day from Santorum voters to overcome that.”

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MI_226.pdf

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