The Only Way Bernie Sanders Can Win the Nomination

[MineralMan]

There's only one way he can do that: Win the majority of pledged delegates. So, if you want Sanders as the nominee, the only approach that will work is to campaign like crazy and get him that majority. Nothing else will work.

Threatening superdelegates with being primaried will not work. They will vote for the candidate with the majority of pledged delegates.

Hoping for a miracle won't work. There's not going to be a sudden realization that Sanders should be the nominee.

Hoping that Hillary Clinton gets indicted won't work. She won't be indicted before the Convention, and probably never. That's a long shot that won't occur.

Believing that some Deus ex Machina will suddenly appear and become the nominee isn't going to work. One of the two current candidates will be the nominee.

For Bernie to be that nominee will require that he comes to the convention with a majority of pledged delegates. Time to get to work on GOTV and campaigning in the remaining states. He needs plenty of delegates to catch up and pass Clinton. Ties won't do it. It's going to take big wins in big states. Close won't work. He needs decisive wins and he needs them by the end of April. If he doesn't get them, it will be over.

Period. End of story.

[berni_mccoy]

1. Don't worry, we've been campaigning...

Despite Hillary's attempts at election fraud.

[HumanityExperiment]

2. Shorter...

22 primaries left, 56% or better through each for Bernie to beat HRC

"Period. End of story."

keep in mind... #whichhillary

[MineralMan]

5. Just as I said. If he can do it, he can become the nominee.

So, good luck to Bernie.

[vercetti2021]

3. Trash

Goodbye third way

[NWCorona]

4. I happen to agree

I believe he will go into the convention with a majority of pledged delegates. It's gonna be an up hill battle but Bernie will make it IMHO.

[MineralMan]

8. Exactly my point. That is what he must do

to become the nominee. Nothing else will work. So, his supporters need to focus on that, not the other stuff that won't work.

[NWCorona]

13. I don't have a problem with his supporters

Lobbying the supers if they happen to be elected officials. And as long as it's respectful.

Bernie supporters who think that he can win without having a majority might be fooling themselves. The only caveat is if Hillary does drop out and she releases her delegates to as Biden. If that happens there probably will be problems at the convention.

[fun n serious]

6. Yep! I say HRC supporters should start pivoting to the General nt

[MineralMan]

11. Actually, her supporters need to do the same thing and

work like crazy to make sure she gets the majority of pledged delegates, too.

For both candidates, that is the only strategy that can work. All the rest is useless prattle. Winning primaries is the answer. It is the only answer. The candidates know that. Their followers sometimes think things work differently than they do. DU is the evidence of that. I've seen all sorts of fantasies posted here about this year's primaries. None are even possible.

[Sky Masterson]

7. I would never suggest the Superdelegates vote for the person with the least pledged votes.

I think they should throw out the entire vote of the super delegates and go with what the states decide.
That said, I believe people should stop it with the bullying Sanders to get out and let it go to the convention.
If Hillary still has the Majority of votes then She should be the Nominee. And she will probably lose in the general since she is universally unliked and inspires no one not already in the tank for her.

[MineralMan]

9. That's not going to happen. This convention will go with the rules

that are in place. They can't change the rules for this election. They could change them for the next election, though. But for 2016, the superdelegates will vote. There is no mechanism available to change that, frankly.

[Sky Masterson]

10. Well, I know that.

Its just messed up and gives the justified impression that Primaries are mostly frauds.

[MineralMan]

12. Well, once the convention happens and the candidate

with the majority of pledged delegates becomes the nominee, people will see that there was no fraud. The system will work just fine.

[Sky Masterson]

15. As long as that happens.

If Bernie by chance gets 1 more Pledged Delegate than Hillary and she wins with the Supers then that will expose to a generation just how futile and unjust our democracy is.

[MineralMan]

17. That's a real long shot. Whatever happens, the margin will be

bigger than that. It's not going to be a one vote majority. That's very, very unlikely.

[Sky Masterson]

20. But it is not above possibility that he does overtake her.

The whole "Bernie trying to steal it through Super Delegates" echos that I see everywhere annoy the shit out of me.
If Bernie surpasses her in pledged delegates and they change that.
It would not be good for the party.

[MineralMan]

22. It's improbable, but possible. If he pulls that off and

gets the majority of pledged delegates, I have no doubt that enough superdelegates will shift to him to make him the nominee. Not all, but a majority of them. We have some truly fair-minded people as superdelegates. They'll come through if Bernie actually earns a majority of pledged delegates.

I think it's very improbable that he will succeed in doing that, but it's mathematically possible. That's why I'm saying that his supporters need to pull out all the stops to try to make it happen. If they do, it's possible. If they don't and just complain about unfairness, though, he won't get that majority.

I'm trying to encourage people, not discourage them. Time's wasting quickly.

[Sky Masterson]

23. It might come off a bit more encouraging if you labeled the thread

Get out there and help your candidate! Times a wasting away! Or something encouraging instead of
"The only way Bernie sanders can win".
That doesn't encourage, that angers.
It looks like another "Give it up" thread.

[MineralMan]

24. Well, thanks for the suggestion.

Did I get anything wrong in my post? Let me know, and I'll correct it if you are right.

Otherwise, I choose my own post titles and write the content I want to write.

[SheenaR]

16. I hope you will be vigilant

in holding Clinton to this if Bernie goes in up in pledged delegates.

Because it is not like she is going to just back off if this is the case.

[MineralMan]

18. I do not know Hillary Clinton, and

she has no idea who I am. I can't hold her to anything, actually. I'm one DFL precinct chair in one precinct out of 4000 in Minnesota. I might be able to influence my state legislators, since I know them. I can talk to my house member, because I have met her and worked on her campaign.

A presidential candidate? I have zero or less influence on any presidential candidate.

I'll be watching every primary. I'll be watching the convention. But I will have no influence in any of those things.

Talk about "holding Clinton to" anything is just silly. Not one of us here on DU can do that. Not one.

[SheenaR]

19. Way to back away from that one

You do quite a bit of pontificating here.

So let me rephrase. I hope you will (in your posts here at DU) be sure to present this information as it relates to Hillary Clinton if she does not receive the majority of pledged delegates and still contests the nomination.

[MineralMan]

21. Yes, I certainly will do that.

If the party acts in that way, I will be very vocal about it. However, that will be as meaningless in effect as anything else I post on DU. I have no delusions about my influence or DU's influence on politics at that level. We're all observers here, except when we work to get people elected in our own areas. I can influence elections in Minnesota to a small degree, up to the congressional district level, because I'm a delegate to those conventions and an active canvasser. Beyond that, I am completely without influence, just like the rest of us on DU.

I, and a few others, managed to unseat a state Senator in my district and elect an unlikely replacement. It was a surprise to everyone when it happened. We got rid of an incumbent who was too soft on labor issues and elected a Hmong immigrant who has done a great job of supporting progressive legislation in Minnesota. So, there are tangible things one can do, but they stop right at the borders of local districts.

So, I'm very active locally in elections where I do have that small level of influence. Beyond that, I'm an observer and a voter. That's it. And a pontificator at times, as you point out. It's clear to me that my pontificating has little effect, though. It amuses me to participate in that way, though, so here I am.

[SheenaR]

14. I completely agree

The candidate with the higher pledged count should be the winner.

We aren't looking to "steal" an election.

And it does not require these huge wins. It requires consistent wins and some will obviously be larger than others, but that 56% is what we are shooting for.

If she loses NY, she may win one more state the rest of the way.