Hillary beat Bernie in Wisconsin with African-American voters by 48 points

[oberliner]

They made up less than 10 percent of the electorate in Wisconsin, but it was quite a resounding margin.

It will be interesting to see if Bernie can make any kind of inroads there in the more diverse states coming up.

[JonLeibowitz]

1. "more diverse states coming up" -- Hillary supporters ever so quick to dismiss HI and AK

Lots of diversity there, but not for Hillary. Not the right kind of diversity?

WA too.

[geek tragedy]

5. caucus states. Primaries are a much different story.

Sanders has lost the non-white vote by massive margins in every primary.

[JonLeibowitz]

6. I don't disagree. But it isn't related to my point.

[geek tragedy]

10. Sanders's weakness has not been with all non-white voters.

He's done fairly well with Asian voters and Native American voters.

It's with black and Latino voters.

And there are lots of them in New York, and Pennsylvania, and Maryland, and California.

And those are all primaries so there'll be representative turnout.

Closed primaries are going to be a big problem for Sanders.

[JonLeibowitz]

12. He has done fairly well with Latinos -- not winning but recently tieing Clinton.

Otherwise, you are correct.

As the zen master said....we'll see.

[geek tragedy]

26. The key is: will they break as they did in Illinois

or as they did in Texas and Florida?

We have not a lot of data to go on, because we have so few primary exit polls where they were a big chunk of the population.

[Bluenorthwest]

20. California has virtually the same percentage of African Americans as does Wisconsin....

Slightly less, actually both States have less than half the national percentage. California has far more Latinos than either the US or Wisconsin...US: 17.4% CA 38.6% WI 6.5% California has 14.4% Asians to Wisconsin's 2.6% and the US's 5.4%

US Census Quick Facts lays all this out State by State as you need....
http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/00,06,55

[geek tragedy]

24. yes, I knew that. nt

[kristopher]

32. The margin in Wisconsin among PoC was H +14

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/wi/Dem

[Bluenorthwest]

11. Oklahoma had a primary. It's less white than Illinois, Texas or the US as a whole.

So the Clinton supporters just steamroll over Oklahoma. 'Those Native Americans and Latinos and such simply do not count at all, because caucuses and less diverse and blah blah blah.'

I have come to believe Clinton folks do not know what 'diversity' means.

[dsc]

31. Literally it was Obama's worst state in both 2008 and 2012

He lost every county. So yeah, Bernie is able to win Obama hating GOP territory, it is a wonderful accomplishment.

[mythology]

40. That's an N of 1.

And what percentage of the minority population voted as compared to states with black or Hispanic minorities as compared to native peoples.

And no offense intended to native peoples, but they make up a tiny fraction of the population as compared to blacks or Hispanics.

[oberliner]

8. States with a higher population of African-Americans

Both Hawaii and Alaska have very small African-American populations.

[JonLeibowitz]

13. There is more diversity than AAs

[oberliner]

16. That's why I clarified what I meant

Which is, perhaps Hillary will do better in upcoming states with a higher African-American population.

Bernie seems to do the best in states that do not have such a high population of African-American populations (like Alaska and Hawaii whose AA populations are quite small).

[HumanityExperiment]

2. Only 48?...

Her margins are eroding... should have been much larger margin if past trends were holding up

Interesting, thx for posting that her demographics are starting to dive

[Kip Humphrey]

3. Fortress Hillary is beginning to resemble Dunkirk - a defensive shell with no one behind the front.

[oasis]

28. Lose the battle, win the war.

Okay by me.

[AgingAmerican]

37. A few months back it was, "He can only win in Vermont"

What happened?

[oasis]

42. No matter. Math cancels all opinions.

It's all about the math.

[bvf]

44. David Brock. n/t

[Iliyah]

4. K & R

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

7. If that is true...

How did she only barely hang on to Milwaukee county?

It's 29% AA overall there. So close to 40% of democratic electorate would be AA is my guess

[oberliner]

14. Wisconsin’s Voter-ID Law Could Block 300,000 Registered Voters From the Polls

There is a clear racial disparity in terms of who is most impacted by the law. In 2012, African-American voters in Wisconsin were 1.7 times as likely as white voters to lack a driver’s license or state photo ID, and Latino voters were 2.6 times as likely as white voters to lack such ID. More than 60 percent of people who’ve requested a photo ID for voting from the DMV have been black or Hispanic, according to legal filings.

http://billmoyers.com/story/wisconsins-voter-id-law-could-block-300000-registered-voters-from-the-polls/

Perhaps that played a role.

[suffragette]

41. The law also targets students.

I think any disenfranchisement is wrong and that no one should be denied the right to vote.

I agree that these malicious laws are targeted to exclude minorities. They also are intended to exclude the poor and college students.

That repression could have also played a role, but given students strong support for Sanders, that might have meant an even larger win for him.

From the same article you posted, in the very next paragraphs:

The law also targets students. Student IDs from most public and private universities and colleges are not accepted because they don’t contain signatures or a two-year expiration date (compared to a ten-year expiration for driver’s licenses). “The standard student ID at only three of the University of Wisconsin’s 13 four-year schools and at seven of the state’s 23 private colleges can be used as a voter photo ID,” according to Common Cause Wisconsin.

That means many schools, including the University of Wisconsin-Madison, are issuing separate IDs for students to vote, an expensive and time-consuming process for students and administrators. Students who use the new IDs will also have to bring proof of enrollment from their schools, an extra burden of proof that only applies to younger voters.

“They’re trying to suppress the votes of students,” says Analiese Eicher, program director at One Wisconsin Now and a graduate of UW-Madison. “There’s no other reason.”

[oberliner]

47. Those are good points

I am not sure what the reason is then. Maybe the white voter turnout was just really high? What do you think accounts for the apparent discrepancy in the numbers?

[suffragette]

48. Maybe first generation voters were hit the hardest?

That would include young African Americans, Latinos, those from poorer households and students.
The percentage then could be different because there is a generational difference in preference for Sanders and Clinton.

It would particularly hit people who suffer the most from economic inequality within those groups the hardest since they would be more likely to be working in addition to being a student or working one or more jobs that have hourly wages and , so, be less able to get the time off to take care of getting an ID and wait in the lines.

It's sickening to me that Republicans purposefully target these groups for repression, then lambast them for not being enthusiastic or showing up. As I've noted elsewhere, it reminds me of Ohio in 2004, disgustingly long lines then at colleges and demographically strong AA areas. I applaud those who stuck out the lines, but they should not have to have that obstacle in the first place.

[kristopher]

9. CNN exit poll says 38% margin for clinton among AAs.

But the next entry is this:
83% white
Clinton 40%
Sanders 59%

17% non-white
Clinton 57%
Sanders 43%

As you say, black was 10% of the vote, with Latinos (3%) Asians (2%) and Other (2%)

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/wi/Dem

[riversedge]

15. So the OP is WAY off the mark. Thanks

[kristopher]

18. Let's be charitable and say it's an arithmetic mistake.

[oberliner]

22. It's not a mistake

Different news outlets conducting exit polls yield different results.

Funny though how some people immediately accept as true the one that has the numbers they prefer and reject the other.

[kristopher]

25. CBS doesn't provide raw data, just snipped quotes.

As a researcher myself, I'm inclined to trust the source that provides the full data set.

[kristopher]

27. You have a sources, that doesn't mean "it" isn't a mistake.

But it certainly could be just different sampling. Do you know if the different news outlets are now doing their own exit polling? They used to employ a single agency to do it and they'd all share the data. I thought that was still the case.

[oberliner]

19. Wrong

Funny how people believe the things they want to believe.

CNN is right and CBS is wrong because you like the CNN numbers better?

[kristopher]

33. No, because CNN gives the entire set of results.

Not out of context snips. Unless you happen to know where the CBS numbers are? I'd love to see the whole survey. Did you take a moment to look at the CNN numbers? I was surprised at how broad and deep support for Sanders is.

[oberliner]

38. Fair enough

I did see these numbers from the NY Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/04/05/us/elections/wisconsin-democratic-primary-exit-polls.html?_r=0

They show Hillary beating Bernie with AA voters 71-29 which would be 42 percent.

Probably fair to say that the margin is somewhere around 40, given the somewhat different results from different outlets.

[kristopher]

45. Thank you.

Those look like the same numbers that CBS had. So maybe CNN has their own polling while some other outlets are still pooling.

It's actually pretty similar and there is one feature that's pretty interesting. Top left there is a button that toggles between "scale rows by population" and "scale rows evenly".

Click the scale by population and scroll down the questions. It gives a good visual impression of where the weight of public preference resides.

I hadn't seen it done that way before. Interesting, thanks.

[oberliner]

17. CBS says 48% margin for Clinton among AAs

Wisconsin gives Ted Cruz, Bernie Sanders crucial momentum

Excerpt:

The Vermont senator also won among white voters, who made up 84 percent of the Wisconsin Democratic electorate, by an 18-point margin (58 percent to 40 percent). Clinton won among African Americans as she usually does--and by 48 points--but African American voters were just 9 percent of the overall Democratic electorate on Tuesday.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/wisconsin-gives-ted-cruz-bernie-sanders-crucial-momentum/

[kristopher]

30. And CNN says 38% among AAs with only 14% among all PoC.

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/wi/Dem

[bigtree]

21. yep

https://twitter.com/thepeoplesview/status/717523496021024768

[kristopher]

34. That's Brockbait!!!

How about at least a semi-objective source?

[bigtree]

35. Clinton carried black voters by more than 2-1

Even in her Wisconsin loss, Clinton carried black voters by more than 2-1. Her defeat rested mostly on independent voters, who went strongly for Sanders while registered Democrats were split. There was a signal demographic warning sign for Clinton: She and Sanders split female voters, a group that has consistently been in the former secretary of State’s corner this year.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-sanders-cruz-analysis-20160406-story.html

[KingFlorez]

23. So much for that poll that had him leading by 10% among black voters

[jcgoldie]

29. but but

An associate English professor at some liberal arts schools said she had lost the black vote...

[thebeautifulstruggle]

36. AA's are the least liberal of the D voting block

In-fact, self describing themselves as more conservative than liberal

It's not surprising they would pick the more established candidate...they even preferred Hillary over Obama (first AA president) until he started winning states..

[oberliner]

39. Yes, Bernie generally does better with liberals and Hillary with moderates

That seems to be a trend as well.

[imagine2015]

43. Bernie will get over 95% of the African-American vote in the Presidential election.

[obamneycare]

46. Perhaps Scott Walker's voter suppression tactics worked to suppress the AA Bernie vote?

The latest polling (Mar 28-29) had shown that Sanders had an 11-point lead among African-American voters planning to vote in the Wisconsin Democratic Primary.


However...

Once known as a bastion of progressive government, Wisconsin was among several states that cracked down on poll access after the 2008 election, where an unexpected surge in turnout among African-Americans and young voters undercut the white, middle-class core voting demographic.

Well over half the states weighed adding more voter restrictions, inspiring criticism that—in the absence of provable cases of widespread fraud—states were simply trying to reshape the voting pool.

Such efforts have been criticized by civil liberties groups as being modern-day equivalents of the poll taxes and literacy tests that in the past singled out poor, mostly African-American citizens, particularly in southern states.

http://fortune.com/2016/04/04/wisconsin-voter-id-law/

...

Laws requiring voters to show identification when they cast a ballot impact have a greater impact on African Americans and younger voters than on other racial and age groups, according to a new analysis.

The report, issued Wednesday by the General Accounting Office [pdf], found that fewer African Americans have the types of identification — like a driver’s license or state-issued identification card — required to obtain a ballot than whites. As a consequence, turnout among African American voters fell by a larger percent than turnout among white voters in two states that implemented identification requirements between 2008 and 2012.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2014/10/09/report-voter-id-laws-reduce-turnout-more-among-african-american-and-younger-voters/