My prediction: Hillary wins 14 of remaining 21 states and finishes ahead by 347 pledged delegates.

[DCBob]

Clearly she wont have enough pledged delegates to clinch but the superdelegates would put her over the top on the first ballot.

Game over.

[CompanyFirstSergeant]

1. Listen, team...

We may not win this one outright, but...

I bought the head referee a fifty dollar gift card to Denny's.

Game over.

[DCBob]

19. Sounds like Bernie is one who will need some wheeling and dealing with the Supers.

[SheilaT]

2. There is no way on god's green earth that

Hillary will get 60% of the vote in NY. Or in New Jersey. Or even 52% in California. And in New Mexico she'll get a lot less that 55%.

So dream on, but your numbers are hilarious.

[Buzz Clik]

5. Ok. But he tossed out his numbers. Your turn.

[SheilaT]

6. Who he? What numbers?

I've apparently missed something here.

In any case, Hillary's losing.

[Buzz Clik]

8. You might loop back to the OP and read it.

[geek tragedy]

27. You understand that the person ahead is by definition winning, right? nt

[DCBob]

16. Show us how Bernie gets anywhere close to Hillary.

With math please.. not wild statements.

[thesquanderer]

66. I think you're right that she wins, but I think it will be closer than you say.

Just looking at the big delegate states, I think NY, PA, and NJ will be closer than you think, though I think she probably still wins them. I think Bernie has a chance of flipping CA. But yeah, it's hard to find any kind of realistic scenario that put him in the lead. Not completely impossible, but highly unlikely. While I'm more generous to him that the 347 deficit you show, I wouldn't put any money on it falling below the 200s.

[Buzz Clik]

3. I predict that an angry mob will descend on this thread...

...calling you a Hillbot and will point out that Bernie will win because, well, because.

[Sancho]

4. A good analysis...and probably a little bit conservative.

Hillary will probably win by more.

She's ahead by 2.5 million votes now. When she gets ahead by 3 million or more - there's no reason for a super delegate to do anything except get on board. Bernie will actually lose some of the few he has now.

After the wins in NY and Conn. and Penn. - there will be little energy for the remaining states to GOTV for Bernie, so she will do a little better than currently predicted.

Good job!

[SheilaT]

9. The 2.5 million votes hark back to Super Tuesday and the deep south,

states which no Democrat is very likely to carry anyway. Plus, a lot of the caucus states don't report their actual numbers, so the 2.5 million isn't a reliable number in the first place.

More to the point, it's the delegates that count.

And tell me again about the amazing enthusiasm for Hillary? The Nevada delegates that couldn't be bothered to show up for the second round of voting?

[Sancho]

26. This enthusiasm..NY polls

The Emerson poll was conducted April 6-7. It has a margin of error of 5.4 percentage points.
CANDIDATE VOTE%
Hillary Clinton 56
Bernie Sanders 38

RealClear Politics Average

RealClear Politics keeps a running average of the New York polls. The polls include data from two polls. The CBS News/YouGov poll conducted March 29-April 1 and the Quinnipiac poll conducted March 22-29.
CANDIDATE VOTE%
Hillary Clinton 53.5
Bernie Sanders 42.5
CBS News/YouGov

The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted March 29-April 1. It has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.
CANDIDATE VOTE%
Hillary Clinton 53
Bernie Sanders 43

Quinnipiac

The Quinnipiac poll was conducted March 22-29. It has a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.
CANDIDATE VOTE%
Hillary Clinton 54
Bernie Sanders 42

[geek tragedy]

35. Virginia and Florida and Ohio voted for Obama twice.

North Carolina voted for Obama in 2008 and was close in 2012.

And the Democrats down there are human beings whose vote in the primary should and do count equally to Democrats in Vermont and New Hampshire.

[DCBob]

17. Yes, I think a bit conservative too..

but just giving the Bern the benefit of the doubt.

[B Calm]

7. Now that Bill Clinton attacked BLM it's whole new ballgame.

[Buzz Clik]

10. And and and um the vote for Iraq and banksters and...

Feel the Bern!!!!11112

[TMontoya]

11. Not really

No one really cares about that. Despite your claims the average person sees them as hecklers and troublemakers.

[B Calm]

18. We'll see!

[FarPoint]

33. I know I see this to be true too.

Sanders has totally disrespected the Democratic Party, who agreed to assist and embrace him...He returns not gratitude but insult after insult, denial of ever embracing the fold, nor a desire to support the members of the Democratic Party.... He's like a drunk wedding crasher.

[noiretextatique]

78. Black people care about it

In places like NY and California.

[TheCowsCameHome]

12. The coming indictments will help her, too.

[IdaBriggs]

14. Shhh! She told them that wasn't going to happen.

And it might not. The FBI is notoriously mellow about national security.

[DCBob]

20. Yes, that is Bernie's only hope now...

minuscule as it is. More likely she will get hit by lightning.

[TheCowsCameHome]

39. It's not only Bernie hoping...........

[hobbit709]

13. Didn't you predict some other big wins a couple of weeks ago?

[DCBob]

22. You mean FL, MS, LA, OH, NC, AZ, etc...

[hobbit709]

30. I see you conveniently left a few out. along with a large lead that evaporated.

[HERVEPA]

15. Wow. Even more similarity to Baghdad Bob than before.

[One of the 99]

21. That's one opinion.

So you really believe that Bernie is going to lose NY by 10 points? That's ridiculous.

[DCBob]

23. Oh yeah.

You can bank on it.

[One of the 99]

24. No way.

In fact I can see him beating her here. Not by a lot but still winning.

[DCBob]

28. Lets check back April 19th.

[Sky Masterson]

31. .

Or you're high.

[geek tragedy]

32. Ridiculous because it conflicts with your hopes? nt

[One of the 99]

64. No because it conflicts with reality.

[CompanyFirstSergeant]

25. The FBI is notoriously mellow about national security.

I love the smell of sarcasm in the morning.

Good one.

[Vinca]

34. You may well be right, but . . .

as of yesterday . . . we would be going into a general election with a person who has the third highest "dislike" ratings in the race (over 50%). The only bright spot is she most likely will face the person with the highest "dislike" ratings ever recorded in a presidential primary. Now . . . when will she be clear of her legal troubles? That can't be brushed under the rug.

[DCBob]

46. I think those dislikes ratings are unfair..

and will dramatically change once this bogus email stuff is put to rest. I was hoping the report would come out soon since I am sure it will clear her of any legal issues.

[Vinca]

49. Keep those rose-colored glasses on, my friend.

[DCBob]

51. My glasses are super clear!

[nadinbrzezinski]

69. I thought that Trump was going to get it

But he won't be the nominee. This will be a brokered convention and I suspect they are going to parachute in either Paul Ryan, or somebody we have not heard off. Critical point, no epic negatives

[geek tragedy]

36. I think PA will be less competitive than NY but overall this seems right.

Sanders would be going to Rome, NY instead of Rome, Italy if this state were in play.

[DCBob]

38. You may be right about PA.

Latest polling had Bernie closing a bit but I think she still has a solid win there. Ohio might be a good indicator.

[geek tragedy]

41. Polls to watch:

PA: Franklin & Marshall
NY: Siena

Qpac's polling is looking off.

[DemocracyDirect]

37. A lot of wishful thinking here...

... but whatever helps you sleep at night.

Too bad your other predictions didn't come true.

[DCBob]

40. What other predictions??

BTW, I sleep great at night.. as long as my neighbors are quiet!

[DemocracyDirect]

42. The predictions by you and the rest of the royalists...

... who said you would wrap this up in February.

[DCBob]

44. I dont think I ever said February but I did think it would be more or less over by Super Tuesday.

Clearly Bernie has done much better than anyone had anticipated but it's simply not going to be enough to win. Bernie biggest problem is connecting with African Americans.. a critical Democratic voting block.

[DemocracyDirect]

47. So then why don't you lend us a hand...

... because Bernie deserves the support of African Americans just as much as Hillary does.

We are fighting for each other and for our children's future.

Please?

[DCBob]

50. Because Hilary is our better candidate by far.

Why dont you help us instead of helping the Republicans??

[DemocracyDirect]

55. You really are a master of wishful thinking.

If she does win the primary I doubt she will beat the Republicans.

Do you realize all the negativities associated with her?

Anyway if you think supporting a Democratic Party candidate for the Presidency is helping the Republicans you have told me all I need to know about you...

... you are in your own bubble and don't want to hear anyone elses views... Eerily similar to many Republicans.

[DCBob]

58. She will easily beat any RW loon the GOP puts up.

The Republicans are a dying party in complete disarray.

[DemocracyDirect]

60. Okay if it comes to that then I pray that you are right!

But please respect our views also.

We are not sure who the Republican nominee will be.

So join me in keeping an open mind and support your candidate as vigorously as you like!

[DCBob]

62. I totally respect your views...

I just think you are completely wrong.

[Tarc]

43. Hillary could win NY at 55%, and Sanders take EVERYTHING ELSE at 58%, and she'd still win

http://DemRace.com/?share=3P9aACjx

[DCBob]

45. Yeah, clearly Hillary has all sorts of win scenarios..

Bernie has few to none.

[DemocracyDirect]

48. Enough of these math threads already.

We have seen these for months and months and the math has actually been improving.

We can all appreciate letting New York and California having a big say in the results.

This is historic and we should just enjoy it.

[DCBob]

52. LOL.. enough of these anti-math posts!

[DemocracyDirect]

57. Great we agree...

[chillfactor]

53. keeping my fingers crossed n/t

[gordianot]

54. It is good to know the Amazing Karnak still lives without Johnny Carson.

[DCBob]

56. I loved that character!

Last edited Sat Apr 9, 2016, 09:58 AM - Edit history (1)

But it doesn't take a psychic to figure this out... simple math skills will suffice.

[gordianot]

67. Key word is simple but if anything prognostication is harder.

[Armstead]

59. Bernie is the Timex candidate -- Keeps on Ticking

Game was over in August 2015,and every week since according to many..But as the old Timex ads used to say he "takes a licking and keeps on ticking."

[DCBob]

61. He's still ticking but running out of time.. and states.

[Armstead]

63. If he's still ticking at the convention...could be interesting

Or to use another old ad tagline......

[DCBob]

65. Batteries eventually run out.. even the "Energizer".

[Armstead]

68. Well ultimately, as the philosopher said, in the long run we're all dead....

But won't get that cosmic about an election.

[NWCorona]

70. I like that spreadsheet

[Dem2]

71. My prediction:

things won't turn out as predicted.

[Karmadillo]

72. Nope. Sanders might win Iowa, New Hampshire, and Vermont, but that's it. It's all Hillary

the rest of the way.

[Surya Gayatri]

73. Kick for the math...

[airplaneman]

74. OK bookmarked and we can talk about this later n/t.

[DCBob]

75. Thank you... I feel honored.

[airplaneman]

80. Ok I am ready to review how you have done on your prediction so far.

I am using

http://demrace.com/

You have HC 1668 BS 1353 and diff 315
The link has HC 1664 BS 1371 and diff 293.

Not sure why your total is less when you sum HC + BS ??

Damn your good - You called these pretty close - even exactly on a couple of states.

I will come back one more time after June 7th for a final analysis.

Until then..........

-Airplane

[oldandhappy]

76. and unites the party

[DCBob]

77. The vast majority of the party will come together in support of Hillary..

because they know the real enemy is the GOP and keeping the WH is the absolute priority.

And that's no "laughing" matter!

[SoLeftIAmRight]

79. well - that means - it is not the end of the world as we know it

we will be stuck with the sos

[airplaneman]

81. My final review of your predictions.

Hillary actually did better than you predicted.
I think you had a really good feel on how it was going to go down.
I enjoy making predictions myself and enjoyed your effort to share yours.
Thanks for sharing and see you around DU.
Best regards,
-Airplane

[DCBob]

82. Thank you.

Seems I wasnt that far off.