Contested Democratic Convention?

[highprincipleswork]

I think that this article makes excellent points. (I know that some will try to kill the two messengers, both the writer and me. I only ask that you at least read the article and think about it.)


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/the-democrats-are-headed-for-a-contested-convention-too_b_9620362.html


Somehow this massive split in the Democratic Party needs to be acknowledged, the most electable candidate put forward, and the Party healed and unified against the Republicans going into November.

[cantbeserious]

1. This Revolt Has Been Building For Years - The DWS, DNC, DLC, Third-Way Has Only Themselves To Blame

eom

[LWolf]

20. True.

Although I would amend that statement to say:

The DLC/Centrist/"New Democrat"/ Third Way/neo-liberal coalition AND THE DEMOCRATS WHO KEEP VOTING THEM INTO POWER have nobody but themselves to blame.

[SamKnause]

2. I think there will be 2 contested conventions this year.

The Reps

The Dems

[Zira]

74. Exactly what I see happening, too.

[MineralMan]

3. No contested Democratic convention will occur.

There will be one candidate with a majority of pledged delegates and that candidate will be known in advance. That candidate will be the nominee after the first ballot.

Where would the contest come from? This is foolishness.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

4. I doubt the Dem convention will be contested.

Maybe the pledged count will be pretty close when the convention starts. First vote, most of the superdelegates vote for Clinton, she wins, game over.

Resistance is futile.

[highprincipleswork]

5. I know. Absorb into the Borg.

Sorry if that doesn't turn out to be as easy as you think.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

9. Better the Borg, than a Cruz presidency. nt

[Lizzie Poppet]

23. You think so?

I think that's probably true, as well. But not by nearly as much of a margin as most, I suspect. Cruz is vile...but on matters of genuine importance to the oligarchs, would they behave any differently? I'm not buying it. Hillary is "liberal" almost exclusively on issues her paymasters don't care much about. We're thrown sops.

Mind you, some of those "sops" are damned important. Voters with principles and character in swing states may have an awful, Faustian choice to make. Me? I can safely reject Princess Weathervane in November without it making the slightest difference to the outcome. The GOP isn't going to nominate anyone acceptable...and at this point it looks like the Democrats aren't, either. If the GOP actually nominated an Eisenhower, I'd be voting GOP for the first time in my life if the alternative was a center-right 3rd Way tool like Hillary...because I'd be picking the more liberal candidate.

[Agschmid]

26. Ugh...

[Lizzie Poppet]

30. Gosh, what a helpful analysis!

[Agschmid]

33. It's about all the energy I want to expend on that.

[Lizzie Poppet]

34. Takes even less to click Ignore.

Which I'll demonstrate right now...

[Agschmid]

35. Please do.

[Fumesucker]

75. That's exactly my reaction to being given the choice of a Republican or someone who voted for IWR

Ugh...

Couldn't have put it better myself.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. HRC will rip out Rafael Cruz's heart and show it to him before he dies.

[Robbins]

44. says clinton supporters

rest of us lose under clinton or republican as president.

[Lizzie Poppet]

50. I have to wonder how much difference there would be.

Yeah, I'm concerned about the SCOTUS...and that's probably the only issue that could even come close to swaying me to vote for Princess Weathervane. Not that I trust her not to make a horrible compromise just to get a nominee past the Senate (and no, I don't see any way we recapture that august body with her at the top of the ballot: she'll motivate GOP turnout to an enormous degree).

Otherwise, we're just talking about nuanced differences between a center-right corporatist disliked by the party in charge of Congress...and a rightist theocrat disliked by everyone in Congress (or the vulgar talking yam).

[Maedhros]

53. With Clinton in the White House, our belligerent foreign policy will continue unabated.

We will start more wars, send more troops to more places, and blow up more families with drones. It will all be forgiven by the Democratic rank-and-file, and any attempt to hold President Clinton accountable for the carnage she causes will be met with vitriol and rationalization.

Under President Cruz, the same things will happen, but the Democratic rank-and-file will instead be horrified and angered, and will loudly denounce and decry the violence - right up until the next President with a (D), then it will be OK again.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

55. A Repub prez (& congress) could end the ACA, and replace it with ...

... nothing.

A Repub prez and congress could do great damage.

HRC is not my first choice, but she would do a few things better than a Repub.

[geek tragedy]

10. majority of voters carries the way, that's democracy not the borg.

If Sanders wins the primary voting, he's the nominee.

If Clinton wins the primary voting, she's the nominee.

Very simple.

[Agschmid]

27. Yup.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

84. I hope you're right.

I can understand and support "simple".

[RKP5637]

37. I left the borg, many have, and became Unaffiliated/Independent and joined the majority of the

voter identifications in the US. That said, I will vote democratic, but I am no longer part of the official borg. No DNC/DLC/DWS and the rest of it.

[jwirr]

61. Game over? No that is just the beginning of the game. The

deal with the 33 State Democratic Parties over super-delegates is not just going to get swept under the rug. Nor is the use of these 33 parties to launder money through the states to Hillary and the DNC as if she is the nominee already.

There are a lot of us who will not accept this kind of treatment.

[JDPriestly]

83. And then, a lot of Bernie supporters will either not vote for Hillary in November or

vote for some other candidate.

I'm talking to a lot of young Bernie supporters. They are not going to switch to Hillary.

It isn't like when I was young. My parents were staunch FDR Democrats. It was understood that I was and am a Democrat.

This morning at a meeting of Bernie supporters, a young man next to me (never seen him before and did not tell him what I thought about this issue at all) advised me that he was not interested in politics until Bernie started running. He explained to me (without my asking) that he was disappointed by Obama and wasn't interested but that he is strongly supporting Bernie.

The Democratic Party is not going to know what hit it if Hillary is nominated. It's not going to be pretty. Bernie supporters are not going to just vote for the lesser of two evils. Because many of them do not see Hillary as the lesser of two evils no matter what.

I don't know how the Democratic Party with the nominee, Hillary, is going to approach or overcome this big problem. I don't think it can be done.

Unless they think they can win over the Republican nominee with the older Hillary demographic. Maybe????

[geek tragedy]

6. No contested convention. The side that loses the election will admit it lost and

respect the decision of the voters.

Seth Abramson is the biggest idiot this side of HA Goodman.

[Tarc]

7. Hillary will enter the convention with the most pledged delegates

If it takes the supers to get her the last step, there's nothing wrong with that.

[restorefreedom]

13. nope. suppression of democracy is becoming tradition /s nt

[mythology]

25. That wouldn't be suppression of the voters

I don't know what to say if you actually think the winner of the pledged delegate count becoming the nominee is voter suppression.

[restorefreedom]

40. they should fight it out without supers

supers should not be allowed to put one candidate "over the top ". if they cannot win on their own, there should be a way of resolving it without supers.

or, there should be a straight rule that either the pop vote winner or the pledged delegate winner, whichever they decide will be the rule, regardless of the total, is the nom. i could live with that.

but no more supers.

[Codeine]

28. How exactly is winning with the majority of pledged delegates "suppression of democracy"? nt

[restorefreedom]

39. debate fixing, voter suppression, election fraud, buying superdelegstes

take your pick

[Codeine]

41. In other words "conspiracy nonsense pulled from my bum."

If there were any evidence of those things the Sadners campaign would be all over it.

[restorefreedom]

46. there are several ongoing investigations by state officials. nt

[highprincipleswork]

72. Not at all interested in your "bum", nor your alleged ideas. Debate fixing, for one thing, is

an obvious fact. How do you think a zillion news cycles have acted like the Republican contest is the only thing worth paying attention to this year? It's as if whoever wins that should be President.

So, in that alone, you bum can rest in peace. It's the way the DNC and the Democratic Party in general have handled the nomination process that smells like SHIT!!!

[Beacool]

56. Suppression of democracy would be to deny the nomination to the candidate

with the most pledged delegates.

[restorefreedom]

71. or rigging debates, election fraud, purposeful long lines, etc.

but i agree that the fair and square winner of the delegates without the help of supers should be the nominee.

whether that person can win a ge is a whole other topic of conversation.....

[Beacool]

76. Utter rubbish from the losing side.

[jillan]

12. Are you saying Bernie supporters should be shot? What does this post even mean?

[nc4bo]

85. PSA: When you see "it" and smell "it", just look at their transparency page.

It will usually confirm your suspicions.

[highprincipleswork]

11. I swear, did anybody even read the article?

Until you do, away with you.

[IamMab]

15. The article is by yet another HuffPo Bernie Sadners supporter. Same one who wrote the 10 ways

Democrats were supposedly losing the election, including "nominating Hillary Clinton."

Sorry, not falling for it.

[Zira]

80. I had my text reader read the whole thing to me. Awesome article.

If anyone wants a copy of a script that reads text to you I'll email it to you.

you just open notepad, paste in the script, save to your desktop as speak.vbs.

Then you select/hilight anything text on your screen. right click copy (so it's in your copy buffer), then click on the script icon on your desktop and it reads to you everything in your copy buffer. Very easy. I love this reader.

[IamMab]

14. Bernie Sadners and his supporters overestimate their influence. Clinton wins on first vote.

Sadners might be able to influence the platform, but his chance of winning the nomination has passed.

[cantbeserious]

22. Wishful Thinking At Best

eom

[Robbins]

43. if he doesn't win nomination

the platform will go to right just like clinton.meanwhile dems lose election when bernie supporters stay home or write in or vote third party.

[Maedhros]

54. Yeah, sure.

Nice try, but your posts are not worth reading.

/ignore list.

[jwirr]

63. The convention is not the only place we have influence. We

also have a lot of influence in the GE. And because a lot of us are now registering with other parties we will be using it.

Don't count you chickens.

[riderinthestorm]

16. This is a must read article. Thanks highpriciples!!

BIG K&R

[highprincipleswork]

18. You're welcome. My pleasure.

[riderinthestorm]

19. I believe some of the most strenuous objections are coming from those who didn't read it

It's not a pro Bernie or Hillary piece.

Its just an analysis of trends and a prediction.

[highprincipleswork]

24. I think you're right about that. But a lot of "limbic thinking" going on.

[jwirr]

64. And if this were an election from the past the analysis might

fit but this is now. From what I read of the posts that is what the Bernie supporters are telling you.

Don't believe it? Have you seen all the huge turnouts this year. The lines and crowds. The donations that come from real people?

[riderinthestorm]

66. I'm a Bernie supporter. Maybe you posted to the wrong person?

[jwirr]

67. Oops, sorry. But what I said can be addressed to a lot of the

posts here.

[riderinthestorm]

68. No Worries

[RKP5637]

38. Same here, excellent article, thanks for posting it!!! n/t

[geek tragedy]

17. Seth Abramson: innumerate BernieBro

After Wisconsin, Clinton is ahead of Sanders by somewhere between 194 and 198 delegates.

After Wyoming, Clinton’s lead will almost certainly be between 184 and 188 delegates.

Clinton lead after Wisconsin: 212

Clinton lead after Wyoming: 212

P.S. Clinton is winning New York and Pennsylvania.

[fighting-irish]

69. P.S. Not anymore.

Clinton will lose New York and PA by at least 17% or more, and eventually the superdelegates will figure that they are supporting a losing candidate and will drop her like a bad habit WITHOUT any consequences from the Clinton Machine.

[geek tragedy]

70. Lol,bye nt

[gollygee]

21. One side will win and one side will lose

And the winning side will get the nomination. Either candidate can win the general election easily. This is not as complicated as people are making it to be, and both sides are overstating the negatives of the other candidate, and overstating the virtues of their own.

[RandySF]

29. Hillary will win the first ballot

The only things he be able to contest are the platform and VP slot.

[Trenzalore]

32. The only way it is contested

Is if the fervent hope of Bernie supporters is true and Sec Clinton has legal troubles. Than after the first ballot Joe Biden becomes the nominee.

[RKP5637]

36. Whoever wins, the split in the democratic party will likely be permanent. Ideologies have grown

too far apart.

[peacebird]

47. ^^^this^^^

[geek tragedy]

48. it's not a matter of ideology or goals, it's mostly about the best way to achieve those goals

and how people think the political process works.

[RKP5637]

51. Excellent point!!! n/t

[Fumesucker]

77. Bismarck had it right, it takes a strong stomach to watch the sausage being made

Unfortunately the internet has opened a revealing window on the abattoir and a lot of people are revolted at what is going on there.

[geek tragedy]

86. The Internet also lets people see what their neighbors

think about politics, also requiring a strong stomach. People tend to radicalize each other.

[Fumesucker]

87. I live in a red part of a red state, I know all about what my neighbors think...

I could talk quite a few people I know into voting Bernie in the general, I wouldn't even bother to try with Hillary. I got burned by the Clintons long ago, defended them and then looked like a fool. Fool me once, Bubba.

[jwirr]

65. Exactly.

[SharonClark]

42. Doubtful

There are 2 candidates, one of them will go to the convention with a majority of the pledged delegates. That person will be the nominee.

[DanTex]

45. Seth Abramson. LOL.

[PATRICK]

49. Ironically

the first decision by the party to make a one way street to November paved a new highway outside their narrow alley for Sanders. Had they encouraged a healthier field this could even have been an option for better or worse. By denying fair treatment for Sanders(I don't the party alone here by any means!) they have had that discredited and shot down as well. Sanders is not a divisive influence unless the Convention wants to explain to the electorate in general why their interests cannot coincide with theirs and why they should simply submit to the will of the party organization yet a second time.

The GOP on the other hand is in full WTF mode where anything might be truly possible except a candidate who represents anything except a petulant power grab and they had no one of substance like Hillary who could dare to shut down an OPEN ELECTION primary season and the voters' voice. Hey without anything to offer except certain death and misery they need more empty drama!

All Democrats need is the people and more common sense. A brokered convention is only narrow possibility but one most likely caused by sowing up certain suspicious super delegates in the first place.

The split in the party as with most splits touted by the acknowledged authorities is between the people and their indulged rulers.

[Gomez163]

52. Up to now math has stood in the way. Now thanks to the Berniebots

that is no longer a problem.

[Beacool]

57. No, there won't be a contested convention. Democrats are not Republicans.

People can twist themselves into knots, but it won't be that complicated. Think of 2008, Obama had half of the pledged delegates that Hillary currently has and he won the nomination. Hillary released her delegates and endorsed Obama. This year won't be any different.

[B Calm]

58. Excellent article, thanks for sharing!

[TomCADem]

59. Does this mean that we can draft Elizabeth Warren as a Unity Candidate?

Afterall, the Republicans are going to jettison both Cruz and Trump in favor of Kasich, Romney or Ryan.

[Waiting For Everyman]

60. "Collapse of the favorite", sums it up.

Fascinating article, I completely agree.

And he didn't even mention the FBI, and that is coming and no one can stop it. The supers will begin to see that HRC is, in fact, radioactive. And then they will start to bail out.

[kgnu_fan]

62. I like the idea nt

[Jim Lane]

73. The article doesn't support its own headline

What he's really projecting isn't a contested convention, but a contested period after the last primary and before the convention. His thesis is that Sanders will continue to gain on Clinton, including a win in California; as a result, Sanders's successes late in the primary season will persuade some of the superdelegates that he'll be the stronger general-election candidate, and they'll switch.

His scenario is improbable, but not impossible -- but that wouldn't be a contested convention. It's a virtual certainty that, at the moment the Democratic National Convention is gaveled to order, everyone will know who's going to be nominated. On the Republican side, that might well happen, too, but there's a significant probability that it won't. His attempted comparison between the two conventions fails.

[silvershadow]

78. apparently. nt

[Zira]

79. Excellent Article! Kick and Rec.

[leveymg]

81. America is tired of both of its venal, parasitic political parties.

This is part of the disassembly of the post-WW2 order that's occurring. Neither party is up to the task of constructively managing globalised banks and corporate greed.

[DemocracyDirect]

82. I wonder what deal was made between Hillary and Obama...

... to release her candidates ahead of the convention.

[Zira]

89. Too good not to bump

[Gothmog]

88. Not going to happen

There is no chance of a contested convention