PPP tied at 48

[TexasCPA]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/102110221023Results.pdf

Tuesday was a tie in our national tracking and a good Saturday for Romney rolled off, hence the overall tie:

[leveymg]

1. PPP and Rass don't poll cell phones. They weight and skew the results.

This poll isn't credible.

[a kennedy]

2. Thank you. eom

[boingboinh]

3. Its humorous that even DU users knock down polls they dont like (as do righties)

When this poll was in our favor we were promoting them. Now that it is a tie or (prior: against us) we pick at them and point out their flaws.

You do realize that polls may not always be in our favor all the time.

Take the good and the bad.

[leveymg]

4. You haven't been here long enough to know what DU was doing before Oct 16.

It's only been in recent weeks that we had reason to look more closely at the methods used to estimate these numbers. And estimations is all they are, for better or worse.

Welcome to DU. Same thing to Texas CPA (Sept 19).

[OldDem2012]

6. It's even more humorous to me that somebody with such a low post count...

...is trying to tell those of us who have been watching this for a long time how to evaluate pollsters who have either had a very difficult time getting good data and/or have outright skewed data for political reasons.

[brooklynite]

10. Okay - let me try it with a higher post count...

Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:45 AM - Edit history (1)

...if you're going to disparage a poll because you suddenly don't like the results its giving you, perhaps you can provide a reason that a polling company which has historically worked for Democratic campaigns and liberal causes, would all of a sudden be skewing their polling data.

Or, you could accept that 1) its a close election, 2) endless polling is going to create a lot of statistical noise and outliers as a matter of course, and 3) the issue is not the polling result on a given day, but the polling trands over time.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. I'll Get In Here

"Never attribute to malice that which can be attributed to incompetence."

Robocallers are missing over thirty percent of the population who do not have land lines. It is not unfathomable this fact does affect their surveys.

[brooklynite]

18. Bingo!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. I Am Suspicious Of All Robocallers Whether They Have A (D) Or (R) After Their Name

Survey USA who has a strong track record used to be robocall only but now they also call cell phones. And in their crosstabs you can see Democrats do much better among cell phone only households. I am sure PPP, Rass and the other robocallers weight their polls but weighting introduces problems of its own,ergo:

At a minimum, excluding cellphones means these polls are increasingly reliant on statistical weighting. They might make up for a lack of young people, for instance, by counting several times the answers from the few younger respondents. Peter Miller, a recent president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, points out the root problem with weighting: “The more you rely on weights, the more you risk being wrong for reasons you don’t understand.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-political-polls/2012/10/12/21408264-13de-11e2-ba83-a7a396e6b2a7_story_1.html

[LonePirate]

5. Wrong! Ras polled me on my cell phone.

[leveymg]

9. Tell that to the guy who wrote this at The Washington Post (see Sec. 3):

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-political-polls/2012/10/12/21408264-13de-11e2-ba83-a7a396e6b2a7_story_1.html

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. If You Have Proof You Might Be Able To Sue Him

It is illegal to call a cell phone using an automated response mechanism unless you agreed in advance to be called,

[blueclown]

7. Great news.

If the President can stay around close to a tie in the popular vote, he's the odds on favorite to win this election due to his strength in the swing states.

[bushisanidiot]

8. What happened to all of the PPP national polls on RCP?

I know i saw them there before.

[regnaD kciN]

11. Looks like every tracker so far..

...has shown a strong move toward Obams in first post-debate day of interviews. Coincidence, or ???

[TexasCPA]

12. Yes, most have

PPP +2
RAND +2
Reuters/Ipsos +1
Ras 0

waiting for
Gallup
TIPP
Washington Post / ABC New

Hopefully, we can get a lasting bump in the polls. Last week's debate bump whiffed out quickly.

[fugop]

13. Gallup is going to be 60-40 for Romney today. I'm sure of it! N/T

[TexasCPA]

14. and we did get a bump in Ras

It will take a couple days to show up.

These updates are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, approximately two-thirds of the interviews for today’s update were completed before the end of Monday night’s presidential debate. The single night of interviews conducted after the debate is similar to the two-point advantage Romney has enjoyed recently rather than the current four-point spread.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Robocaller/No Cell Phones/nt