NC FACTS--not pundit BS or pollster malarkey--Look at the numbers--FINAL UPDATE #10

[mnhtnbb]

Last edited Sun Nov 4, 2012, 07:20 AM - Edit history (10)

Many of us in NC are getting pretty pissed off with the pollsters and pundits. The Obama ground game here is FABULOUS!

The Dems have registered over 100,000 MORE NEW voters--bringing the advantage up to 806,942 MORE DEMS than Repubs registered in the state of North Carolina as of today.

AND the DEMS are ADDING advantage on a daily basis by virtue of the right to register AND vote same day
at early voting locations across the state.

Take a look at yesterday:

Voter Registration as of 10/23/2012 Democratic: 2,843,490 Republican: 2,037,725 Libertarian: 18,513
Unaffiliated: 1,695,271 Total: 6,594,999

(I posted these numbers in this thread yesterday: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=168818



Now look at today:

Voter Registration as of 10/24/2012 Democratic: 2,845,559 Republican: 2,038,617 Libertarian: 18,564
Unaffiliated: 1,696,215 Total: 6,598,955

http://www.ncsbe.gov/


Here are the differences between the numbers between yesterday 10/23/2012 and today 10/24/2012:

Democratic: + 2069 Republican: + 892 Libertarian: 51 Unaffiliated: 944 Total: +3956


Broken out as a % of new registrations: Democratic 52.3% Republican 22.5% Libertarian: 1.3% Unaffiliated: 23.9%


Having been watching these registration numbers changing over time during this election cycle, I have to believe that new Democrats are not registering as Democrats so they can vote for Romney! This election is ALL about GOTV, and the Obama team in NC is doing heroic work to make this happen.

So, please, keep your hopes up...everybody is working very hard...and I believe we're going to turn NC BLUE AGAIN!!

[Buddaman]

1. Thank you!!

[OldDem2012]

2. Thanks for your post! Good work! nt.

[struggle4progress]

3. You can get it if you really want

ww.

[sinkingfeeling]

4. Thanks, now get them to vote!

[AlbertCat]

30. Thanks, now get them to vote!

Well, they ARE registering as they come to vote early, y'know..... SAME DAY registration.

[JustAnotherGen]

5. It's those registered voters

And their party affiliation numbers that I just love! I've already shifted NC into the solid blue column - but keep up the pressure and hard work NC Dems!

[avebury]

6. I remember reading somewhere yesterday that the 19-24

year old voters are going to the polls enthusiastically. I think that the Democrats do have a shot at North Carolina. I am tired of the MSM and pollsters trying to game the system.

[mnhtnbb]

25. President Obama came to UNC-Chapel Hill in April to talk to students

specifically regarding the interest rates charged for student loans.

You couldn't get near a ticket--only students were allowed--and I had to settle for
a spot watching his motorcade arrive on campus.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=journals&uid=169330&year=2012&month=4

College students--and young people trying to find jobs--get it.

[oswaldactedalone]

7. This is why

I can't believe the pollsters and pundits who have written off NC for Robme. My guess is the race will be a point either way, just like last time.

[Pisces]

8. I believe Obama will take NC, FL, OH, IA, CO, NH and NV.

[AlinPA]

152. I hope you include PA in your list.

[Pisces]

165. PA is not a battleground, it is in the bag for Obama.

[Hog lover]

9. GOTV efforts are impressive

I am in Arkansas, and the Obama campaign has mobilized volunteers here to make calls to NC (maybe it's the Southern accent LOL). I don't know how the Romney campaign is using technology and volunteers, but the Obama organization is amazingly thorough.

[Blanks]

78. I received a call from North Carolina.

They asked if I could help out. I explained that I would like to, but I have a severely autistic daughter.

She understood on the phone. I wondered what they were doing.

[kimbutgar]

89. I have an austistic son and I so want to volunteer but we have a higher calling

[Blanks]

127. We do. How old is your son? eom

[JiminyJominy]

10. Great Work NC Dems!

Keep it up! Only 13 days to go!

[mnhtnbb]

11. The key is GOTV. We all saw what happened in the 2010 midterms

when Dems did not come out to vote the way they did in 2008. It hurts--but--we have a chance
to change that this time.

When Michelle came to Chapel Hill a week ago--and I went to see her--she really drove the point home
that the Obama win by 14,000 votes in NC in 2008 averaged out to 5 votes per precinct. 5 votes!
She flat out told the crowd--primarily college students on the UNC Chapel Hill campus--your vote
DOES make a difference.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251146522

I voted yesterday--on campus--and was pleased to have to wait in line and be surrounded by young
people voting.

It's no wonder the Romney folks are throwing out BS and head fakes in NC because they can look
at the same numbers. We can do it IF we GOTV--and I've never seen a campaign work harder
than the Obama campaign is to do just that.

[sheshe2]

12. Their ground game is going to be Stronger now than 2008!

Team O rocks!
Go NC!
Goooooooo Team!

[John2]

13. I think actually

The pundits are disrespecting the African American vote also in North Carolina. It is over 22 percent of the population and a significant part of the Democratic vote in North Carolina. The African American vote in North Carolina is about equivalent to the Hispanic vote in these Western States. What I'm noticing so far from early voting, Romney is actually getting less than 2 percent of that vote. If this is true, that is even less than John McCain.

I'll also point out their is no enthusiasm gap in that demographic, in fact it is higher than white voters according to these Polls. Every Poll I've seen had Romney getting anywhere from 7 to even 20 percent of the Black vote while at sometimes President Obama was only in the high 70s. Gravis Marketing comes to mind and USA\Civitas does too. This is where the Polls will be proven wrong. A lot of the GOTV for President Obama in North Carolina includes college students also. One other thing also, the Press has become an enemy and a slave of big money themselves. They keep saying Obama hasn't put out specifics, well I know what he wants to do. If the Press will take the wax outta their ears then they will see them too. Instead, they are a bullhorn for GOP right wing talking points just like Romney's first Debate, which had no substance whatsoever. The American Public is not as dumb as the Press thinks. We think for ourselves.

[unc70]

14. Was working on similar posts, but yours is better

Good job.

And let me repeat that these are not just new registrations, but early voters who voted that same day. They would not have passed the RV screen, much less the LV filters.

A thousand or two "unlikely" voter advantage added each day of early voting is several times our 2008 winning margin in NC.

[politicman]

15. a little math for you guys

2,380,000 = 700,000 - 3,080,000

850,000 / 2

1,020,000 - 3,020,000

Just a little math for you guys.

According to the OP's numbers, the following scenario needs to happen for Obama to win the state.

1) 2,800,000 Democratic registrations, THUS if only 85% of those end up voting then that will mean there will be 2,380,000 votes for Obama.

2) 2,000,000 Republican registrations, THUS if 100% of those end up voting then that will mean there will be 2,000,000 votes for Romney.

3) 1,700,000 Unafilliated registrations, THUS Obama will need at least 40% of those and he will get 700,000 votes while Romney will take 60% and get 1,000,000 votes.

The totals end up being aprroximately:
Obama will be approximately - 3,080,000
Romeny will be approximately 3,030,000


So to sum up, Obama will needa minimum of 85% of registered Democrats WHILE getting 40% of unafiliated voters.

Romeny will need 100% of regsitered Republicans to vote WHILE getting 60% of unafilliated voters.


Which of the above scenarios do you think is more likely to happen?

[mnhtnbb]

19. Are you serious? Better go back and check the % of people who vote. All your assumptions are wild.

PLUS--the PPP spot poll on the night AFTER the 3rd debate--of swing states, with NC included--
showed:

"Maybe even more important than the sentiment on who won the debate is who folks in these swing states are planning to vote for now: 51% of them say they're going to support Obama to 45% who stand with Romney. That includes a 46/36 advantage for Obama with independents..."

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-wins-debate-by-11-points-in-swing-states.html


Believe me, there are plenty of Dems in the unaffiliated numbers in NC. Hubby and I are just two of them.


Here's the turnout in NC for 2008.

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/7937/21334/en/summary.html

[politicman]

22. please read my post carefully

I wasn't saying that the numbers I provided were going to be reflective of the actual vote tally.

I was saying that Obama needs a minimum of 85% of Registered Democrats and 40% of unafilliated to win.

Whereas Romney needs 100% of Registered Republicans and 60% of unafilliated to even make the race close.


So in closing, I was pointing out the lowest numbers that Obama can possibly get AND still win.

I think Obama will get alot more than the above numbers, BUT these are the barest minimum he needs for a win.

[mnhtnbb]

28. I don't consider it a help to my thread to throw out all kinds of wild assumptions

about % of registered voters by party and HOW they vote. That's just playing the same game as the pollsters, which
doesn't contribute to my post which is saying LOOK AT THE FACTS! Dems own the raw number advantage of registered voters.
We can win this if we GOTV!!!! Living here, seeing the ground game--albeit from the vantage
point of one of the bluest counties in NC (Orange)--I can tell you the Obama campaign is
on fire to GOTV here.

[politicman]

33. I agree, just providing a worst case scenario where Obama can still win

Yes I agree with you regarding the GOTV.

What I am saying is in the worst case scenario if Obama only gets 85% of democrats to vote and 40% unafilliated, THEN he should still win.

I don't believe for one second that Obama will get only those above numbers, ALL I am saying is that if that worst case scenario happened, then Obam will still win NC.

[Hutzpa]

36. So, you came into a positive thread to provide a worse case scenario?

ugh, ...ok, we get it.

[politicman]

47. again I think Obama will win

No, I am an Obama supporter.

What I like to do, is look at the worst case scenario where Obama can STILL win, and then assess the situation from there.


Again, I don't think that worst case sceanrio will happen, I just like to figure out what the worst numbers Obama can get and still win AND then make myelf fell better because I know we will get numbers better than that worst case scenario.

[Hutzpa]

32. This really is not necessary

the OP has done a terrific job in explaining the numbers please try not to obfuscate OP's thread.

Find somewhere else to do that.

[mnhtnbb]

67. He did. Started his own thread!

[yellowcanine]

16. Good numbers but a little misleading on total party registration because there are still a lot

of Republican voting Democrats in North Carolina. But I agree the new Democratic registrations are helpful for Obama.

[bigdarryl]

21. Figures someone like you would POOPOO the numbers

I could say the same about republicans voting democrats JESUS!!!!

[politicman]

26. you are right

PPP's last polll showed more Republicans willing to vote for Obama THAN actual Democrats willing to vote for Romney.

Yet somehow PPP still had Romney up by 2 points EVEN though there are 800,000 more registered DEMS than Repubs.

Oh, and also PPP showed Obam winning the unafilliated.


SO can someone explain to me how PPP can show Romney up by 2 points while having 800,000 more DEMS registered?

[SaveAmerica]

41. Yep, indepedents for Obama should be considered also.

[yellowcanine]

27. "someone like you"????? Do tell. Do you have an argument or is it all ad hominem?

The point is that historically in North Carolina there have been a lot of conservative Democrats. There aren't as many as there used to be because many have switched to the Republican Party. Jesse Helms helped lead that wave. But there are still enough that total registration numbers are not a real good predictor of how people will vote. Unfortunately there will be more Democrats voting R than Republicans voting D for some time still in North Carolina. Argue against that if you wish but spewing about "someone like you" is not an argument.

[bigdarryl]

29. Are you a Obama campaign person if not you don't know what your talking about

I'm sure Jim Messina and Axorod know where those numbers are coming from and who there most likely voting for

[yellowcanine]

34. "what you are talking about", not "what your talking about"

also "Who they are most likely" not "who there most likely"

Your language usage is as good as your logic, it seems.

[barbtries]

40. thinking republicans

will be voting democratic. then there's that 20 to 30 percent. still leaves plenty of room for an Obama WIN.

GOTV

[yellowcanine]

43. Read moderate Republican women.

If Obama wins NC I think it will be in large part because of the Latino vote though.

[barbtries]

44. it will be because

we got out the vote. the more people vote, the better for the democrat. that has never been more true than now, for NC. and i believe NC will go blue again.

[Drunken Irishman]

75. In '08, Obama won 90% of the Democratic vote in NC...

[whttevrr]

17. Thank You!

I needed to read this today. It horrifies me that so many people could vote for Romney and see it as a good thing for this country. We in the Bluest of States are hoping the voters like you can prevail.

Thank you !

[davidpdx]

18. Good news to hear on the ground in NC

I'm crossing my fingers it stays blue.

[hrmjustin]

20. Thanks for the info.

[EC]

23. I 've been thinking the pundits are wrong too... n/t

[Coyotl]

24. Mitt Romney is definitely focused on the wrong thing. He needs more rednecks, not

bayonets

[mnhtnbb]

31. LOL. Thanks!

[Hutzpa]

35. This is for the uninitiated

giving them a peep show. Works great.

FORWARD!

[AzDar]

37. K & R

[barbtries]

38. thank you!

the naysayers have been getting me down i have to admit it. and it will break my heart if NC does not go to Obama. I know he doesn't need us to win, but i want him to have us!
wonderful post, much needed. thank you again

[SaveAmerica]

39. Yep, we should start a new group: NCers for Obama who NEVER GIVE UP!!

I've been saying the same. Let's hope that since they keep saying it on the teevee that Romney's peeps will skulk away and leave us to our voting.

[mnhtnbb]

68. Yes!

[MissNostalgia]

42. :D

I have dreamt of leaving the FAIL Carolina and going north to New Hampshire for some time now but North Carolina, seems more appealing everyday.

[amborin]

45. this is great! n/t

[byeya]

46. I went to jog in the local park where I voted yesterday and voters were lining up one hour

before the polls opened for early voting. There was a 60 -90 minute wait yesterday and it's starting out the same way today.
This is in Winston-Salem.

[mnhtnbb]

69. Hooray!

[BlueCaliDem]

48. This is wonderful news based on the facts!

Thanks so much mnhtnbb!

[otohara]

49. Good, NC Can Redeem Itself

from the disastrous special elections on gay marriage.

[AlbertCat]

56. disastrous special elections on gay marriage.

I don't think that stupid thing would've won if it had been on a regular election ballot.

It was deliberately put on a primary ballot that liberals didn't have to vote in because Obama was the candidate already. Had it been on the ballot for this election, it might not have squeaked by.

Besides, it was a useless waste of time and money.... something the new conservative state legislature is now known for. And it will get struck down if someone challenges it in court.

It also may be a factor in the huge Dem turnout and registration here.

[otohara]

65. Good - I Shamed

some of my son's friends who live in Asheville for not voting in the special election.

One started a "voting doesn't matter" thread on FB.
None of them voted in the special election - and now they regret it!

These kids are so fucking apathetic and cynical - many are on food stamps and don't seem very serious when it comes to getting a job. College educated white kids on food stamps...I don't want to see anyone go hungry, but I'm only seeing a bunch of kids who base their life around music festivals and Burning Man.

[klook]

93. There is that faction in Asheville, but many more serious dedicated people there

who are working hard and making a difference.

[mnhtnbb]

66. I think you're right. Also, people have seen the effect of NOT turning out to vote

in municipal elections (school board in Wake County went under Republican control
which basically proceeded to institute a 'neighborhood schools' agenda--which meant
a return to segregation) and the disastrous mid-terms of 2010 when the voter turnout
was so low that Repubs seized control of the Legislature--first time since 1896.

[obamanut2012]

111. It was held during a Republican Primary, not a general election

Like it was legally supposed to be. It was also illegally added to the ballot, period. Bev did what she could. The fact is, many Dems didn't vote in the Primary, and also MANY voters didn't realize what the Amendment even meant. If it was voted on November 6, I sincerely doubt it would have passed.

[ProudProgressiveNow]

50. K&R

[onenote]

51. Actually, looking at 2008 data, winning NC is going to take a lot of work.

Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:26 PM - Edit history (1)

Why? Because as I posted in another thread on this subject, the numbers in 2012 are not appreciably better than they were four years ago, when President Obama pulled out a narrow (14,000 vote) victory in the state. In fact, in some respects they are not as good.

Specifically, today there are approximately 2.846 million registered Democrats and 2.039 registered repubs and 1.7 unaffiliated. In 2008, there were approximately 2.867 million registered Democrats (20K more than today), 2.002 million registered repubs (35K less than today), and 1.4 million unaffiliated (300K less than today). President Obama eaked out a narrow victory over McCain with around 2.143 million votes compared to 2.128 million votes.

http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/webapps/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=11-04-2008

The positive is that to the extent registration of Democrats fell off between 2008 and 2011 (which it did), the folks that we lost probably voted for McCain if at all in 2008 and the folks that have replaced them are probably more solidly in the Democratic column this time around. The fact that the repubs have picked up registrations also may reflect folks that weren't in the Obama column in 2008 switching their registrations, although it probably includes some new voters as well. The key as it often does, is the unaffiliated voters. There are a lot more of them and its hard to figure out how they will be voting. Bottom line: its likely to be very close again.

[John2]

60. onenote

You are looking at that wrong. The 2.846 million is actually more than it was at the same time in 2008. The numbers increase everyday. That is not the final total. The 2.867 number is actually the number in November, right before Election day.

The Republican number at 2.039 has increased more than the final total of 2.002 but that is only by a few thousand.

If you look up the statistics, it will give you more specific details by counties and demographics such as race. That is what's more revealing and spells trouble for the GOP. Take African Americans for example, On election Day of 2008, 1,357,000 african Americans were registered to vote but as of today that number is 1,457,000 or more. Now compare that to your increase on the Republican side. The African American increase have been over 100,000. That is the same case with Hispanic voters and this cuts into the share of the electorate for whites. So what matters is the final totals on election day. At the rate the Democratic side is increasing every day, it will soon surpass 2008. You can also look at the areas where President Obama had the most success in North Carolina which includes large urban areas such as Charlotte,Raleigh,Durham,Greensboro and Winston Salem. The registration is up in those areas.

[John2]

63. I will also note

I will also make a note about conservative Democrats. You actually can tell by the statistics who is voting for whom. John McCain got 16 percent of white conservative Democrats. That is actually the same percentage Romney is pulling in the Polls. So when these Pollsters call voters, it depends on which Democrat you are talking to. So if they are talking to conservative white Democrats that didn't vote for President Obama, the Polls will be off.

[onenote]

72. Thanks for the additional data

You make several good points. That said, given how close it was last time, folks shouldn't get complacent or over confident about NC. It was hard enough to win there in 2008 and I suspect its still going to be a struggle this time, even as certain numbers break our way). By the way, I'm not suggesting that you are in any way indicating that its going to be easy or that we can relax. I think we're in agreement that NC is winnable if we get out the vote.

[obamanut2012]

112. I'm not -- I think we may squeak out a 1-2% victory here

But regardless, Romney will have to pour more money here the next couple weeks, as well as time and other resources, and that is a good thing. FL and VA are definitely in play for Obama, especially VA, and Romney will have to split resources.

[lucca18]

52. Thank You! Wonderful!

[CanonRay]

53. Go Tarheels and Thanks!

[yardwork]

54. I've noticed a lot of Gary Johnson signs. Lots of Gary Johnson stickers at the State Fair last week.

In North Carolina, I believe that the Libertarian candidate is siphoning significant support from Romney.

[oldhippydude]

64. thats ironic....

a couple of yard signs.. for Johnson that's it... this is New Mexico!!

[juajen]

55. North Carolina is a wonderful state, full of natural beauty and wonderful people.

They are an oasis in the middle of a desert South. Kudos to all of you for working your hearts out for this wonderful man that we are lucky to have as President. This reminds me of how the world envied us for having Bill Clinton. Even when the stupid impeachment was going on, Ireland was begging him to come there. The Democratic Party is full of wonderful talent, male and female. A flute and a salute to us! Hillary 2016!

[NCarolinawoman]

82. Well said!

[UCmeNdc]

57. Go NC GOTV!

[cry baby]

58. Good news! Just gotta win over those unaffiliated! Thanks for all you're doing there! nt

[Hulk]

59. I'm rooting for you!!

I'm a real "bigot" when it comes to the states "in the South"...but I have high hopes for Virginia and North Carolina. I say I'm a bigot because I've traveled through the states, studied the Civil War at great length, and have met hundreds of people from the South in my travels; and my conclusion is simply North Carolina and Virginia were simply "in the wrong place" during the Civil War, and are in the wrong place geographically today. These two states simply don't fit the Southern mold.

The Reconstruction is still working in most of the rest of the South, especially the countryside. But then, that's probably true about most of the country when I stop and think about it.

We really need to get a voice out in the urban areas via radio. You can get rush and vannity on as many as FOUR channels, and possibly more, at one time in some places, but NO progressive voice at all, except near the major metropolitan areas. Without a voice, we haven't a chance to reach the hearts of the rural America, and they're going to be living in "fox-reality" for ever.

[AlbertCat]

71. We really need to get a voice out in the urban areas via radio

Did you mean "urban areas" ?

or RURAL areas?

[unc70]

95. In the Triangle, try WCHL 1360 AM 97.9 FM Chapel Hill

Home of the UNC Tar Heels, but also Stephanie Miller, Ed Schultz, etc.

Drop by sometime.

FYI North Carolina was the major focus of the dissenting opinion in Dred Scott. A slave born in North Carolina once freed was considered a natural born citizen of the State and of the US. Settled law in NC. Could vote until the late 1830's, and still retained all other rights until Jim Crow in 1900, to our collective shame.

While there were many slaves in NC, there was much smaller but still significant number of free people of color in the State, some whose families had never been slaves. We can discuss after the election.

[one_voice]

61. K&R

Not going to comment on the numbers cuz I'd sound like Sarah Palin--and idiot trying to sound smart. I'll leave that stuff to those who know what they're talking about!

Just wanna thank you for all the hard work you guys are doing! Thanks for the thread and good news!

[mnhtnbb]

62. Wow! Thanks DU for the recs to make it to Greatest Threads.

[Hutzpa]

70. Numbers do matter.

Remember what Bill Clinton said during the convention? It's all about the arithmetic.

No amount of spin can change that.

[DemKittyNC]

73. Amen my friend!

N.C. is so blue it's not even close. How we got knocked out of being a swing state to a red state just goes to show everyone how polls are completely wrong and how the media is deliberatley lying to make this a neck and neck horse race to gain attention and ratings. This will be a landslide for President Obama come Nov 6.

Don't give up hope. Don't given in to fear over bought and paid for polling. Just VOTE!

[trailrunners]

74. Way to Go! That's How you do it!

Great work in NC...I believe with the hard work from people like you it will happen!!!

[Blue Owl]

76. Suck it you M$M fuckbags

I said SUCK IT!!!

[David Zephyr]

77. North Carolina can put the entire election in the bag for Obama early election night.

I am so appreciative of all the work being done there and I thank you, mnhtnbb, for your good report.

I notice that while we have a lot of "newly registered" voters voting which is fantastic, we are falling behind our '08 turnout in the early voting with our "already registered" voters. I hope these were not purged.

I want North Carolina to seal the deal early election night. Florida doesn't post their numbers until the panhandle (Central Standard Time) has finished voting.

So, North Carolina and Virginia can shut it all down early on or give us the leg up we need.

Go North Carolina!

[lib87]

98. Let's Go NC!

I'm hoping NC gets it done for the President.

The lines have been very long on the news and I hope plenty of dems show up!

I am done with the MSM playing up the whole 'tight race' thing.

[garthranzz]

120. This!

says it all

[mahina]

79. This post is my favorite post in the history of DU.

Even more than Walt Star's ts.

mnhtnbb, never met you, never read you before today, but I love you. Thank you for this excellent post. Aloha.

[Fantastic Anarchist]

80. My girlfriend voted today!

So, she's part of those numbers.

[craigmatic]

81. I hope we carry NC and upset Romney there.

[underpants]

83. Nov 6th if NC can't be called at the first chance for Romney it is going to be a GREAT NIGHT

Thanks mnhtnbb

[GetTheRightVote]

84. Go NC Go!!!

kicking it...

[Rosa Luxemburg]

85. Great, Georgia seems to be melting away from Romney

[Tigress DEM]

86. The rethugs can't GET numbers like this. That's why they accuse us of Voter Fraud.

They can't believe all these people want to vote for Obama because they have swallowed the kool-aide and believe in Robme as a businessman who will "fix" America.

He'll fix it so broke it will never work again. HA! That's so true it's scary.

[treestar]

87. Went blue last time and can be blue again

[condoleeza]

88. I hope you're right on all counts n/t

[pointsoflight]

90. I firmly believe NC will be the surprise of election day.

Just can't do accurate polling there, given that people can register and vote at the same time.

[LisaL]

92. ITA.

Newly registered voters are not accounted for in the polls.
We are doing well so far by just looking at party affiliation.

[Texas Lawyer]

91. Does the polling show that we're tied or leading in NC? Perhaps. If you exclude those polls that

rely solely on automated robo-phone calls or solely on internet polling, we're tied or ahead.

This is significant, but it doesn't get enough analysis.

The Huffington Post's Pollster (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/news/pollster/) has us narrowly behind in North Carolina (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-north-carolina-president-romney-vs-obama?gec).

Specifically, Pollsters shows Romney at 48.9% and the President at 46.5%

Pollster also allows you to make your own aggregate polling graphs. If you drop out the internet polls and automated robo-phone call, the results change significantly, and which party is leading depends on how much smoothing you use to to draw the trend line tracking the polling data points:

47.2% Obama vs. 44% Romney (less smoothing)
46.5% Romney vs. 46.1% Obama (moderate smoothing)
47.1% Obama vs. 46.1% Romney (more smoothing)

If there is a fundamental flaw in the automated-phone-call methodology, then the race in NC may be shaping up differently than how it is being widely reported.

[Thrill]

94. I live in NC as well. And I think the pundits are underestimaing Gary Johnson here

I think Obama is going to win this state

[LisaL]

96. Gary is doing well in NC?

[Thrill]

104. He's got a nice ground game here

I think he's going to get a lot of the no Mormon vote.

[NCarolinawoman]

108. The Ron Paul delegates were treated very badly at the GOP convention.

I can see that as another reason Gary Johnson might do well.

[Cha]

97. KICK!

[mnhtnbb]

99. -------------------UPDATE-------------------------

Here's an update:



Voter Registration as of 10/25/2012 Democratic: 2,846,973 Republican: 2,039,305 Libertarian: 18,601 Unaffiliated: 1,696,655 Total: 6,601,534

http://www.ncsbe.gov/content.aspx?id=93


Here are the differences between the numbers yesterday 10/24/2012 and today 10/25/2012

Democratic: + 1414 Republican: + 688 Libertarian: +37 Unaffiliated: +440 TOTAL: + 2579


Broken out as % of new registrations: Democratic 54.8% Republican 26.7% Libertarian 1.4%
Unaffiliated 17.1%

Whether this is a one day effect, or may become a trend, notice that the percentage of NEW DEMOCRATIC voters is higher
than the previous day, and the percentage of unaffiliated voters is much lower.



Overall, also as of Tuesday, early voting is running 28% AHEAD of early voting in 2008 and the break out of voters by registered party is: Democratic 51.3% Republican 30.2% Libertarian 0.17% Unaffiliated 18.4%

ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx06xx2012_Stats.pdf

Early voters swarm election sites: http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/10/24/2436453/voters-swarm-election-sites.html


It's good news folks. Good news.

[Dalai_1]

100. Great Post

Thank you for breaking this down for us!
I think you are exactly right we are headed blue without a doubt...

[MuhkRahker]

101. Thanks for today's update! It is indeed good news, out registering Rs by 1000+/day

Yes!

[wcmoorm]

102. NC NC NC

Folks,
I dont' live there, but my family is from there. Have folks forgotten what the Democrats did for the people of NC and the nation during The Great Depression?

We still have my grandmother's little black hat where she dressed up and walked out to vote.

I wish I could be there to help.

Go NC NC

[mnhtnbb]

105. Welcome to DU! There was a photo of a 104 year old woman who voted for Obama

in the Raleigh paper--first day of early voting--and she had on her pearls!

Love the image of your grandmother!

[-LOKI -BAD FOR YA]

103. nc gotv best in the country,reason Charlotte was choosed for the Democratic National Convention n\t

[obamanut2012]

106. I think we have a very good chance of going blue

By 1-3%. Early voting GOTV and the youth vote are key.

[Lex]

107. That would be sweeeeeeet. nt

[user_name]

109. NC bumper stickers/yard signs

I live in a very red NC county that went 64% for McCain. In 2008, we saw McCain/Palin signs EVERYWHERE. We even saw enormous hand-painted signs, including many with just Palin on them.

As I drive around, I marvel at how few Romney/Ryan signs I see. I could count them all on one hand. I almost never see a Romney/Ryan bumper sticker. I do see quite a few Obama/Biden signs, but only in certain neighborhoods.

[mnhtnbb]

110. Welcome to DU!

from Chapel Hill

[obamanut2012]

113. Carolina Blue is Obama Blue

Cheesy, but I don't care.

GOBAMA NC!

[mnhtnbb]

114. Isn't that fun?

[obamanut2012]

115. Yes!

[WilmywoodNCparalegal]

138. ahem... more Duke blue than Carolina blue n/t

[obamanut2012]

141. lalalalalala cannot hear you!

[ProSense]

116. Thanks.

I love math!

[mnhtnbb]

117. ------------------UPDATE #2-----------------------------

It continues to get better and better.

Here are voter registrations:


Voter Registration as of 10/26/2012 Democratic: 2,848,754 Republican: 2,040,106 Libertarian: 18,646 Unaffiliated: 1,697,315 Total: 6,604,821

The differences between yesterday 10/25/2012 and today 10/26/2012

Democratic: +1781 Republican: + 801 Libertarian: + 45 Unaffiliated: +660 Total: +3287


Broken out as a % of new registrations: Democratic: 54.2% Republican: 24.4% Libertarian: 1.3% Unaffiliated: 20.1%


Take a look at the Democratic % of new voter registrations since I started this thread on Wednesday:



Wed: 52.3% Thurs: 54.8% Fri: 54.2%


And the Republican % of new registrations for the same period:


Wed: 22.5% Thurs: 26.7% Fri: 24.4%



So, Democrats CONTINUE to register NEW VOTERS (who are casting ballots in our same day early voting)
at a better than 2 to 1 ratio.

WE CAN DO THIS!!!!! TURN NC BLUE!!!!

Also, as of yesterday 1,163,104 votes had been cast in NC--with a total of 227,320 MORE DEMOCRATIC ballots
cast than Republicans!

ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx06xx2012_Stats.pdf

[Stellar]

118. SWEET!!!!!!

Thanks for sharing.

[mnhtnbb]

119. DEM VOTES EXCEED REPUB votes by 227,320 votes as of yesterday in NC!!!!!

I just checked the total vote numbers since they weren't out yet when I updated this thread early this a.m.

The Dem margin of votes cast over Repub votes cast went UP by 25,000 votes yesterday!

Yes, when I first checked the numbers early this a.m.--Dems were running a little over 200,000 votes more
than Repubs. When I just now added the new numbers, Dems have outvoted Repubs by 227,320 votes!!!


GO BLUE, NC!

[mnhtnbb]

121. ------------------UPDATE #3----------------------

Continuing to watch the early voting numbers here is the latest from the NC Board of Elections

Voter Registration as of 10/27/2012 Democratic: 2,849,579 Republican: 2,040,489 Libertarian: 18,681 Unaffiliated: 1,697,632 Total: 6,606,381

Here is the difference between the numbers yesterday 10/26/2012 and today 10/27/2012


Democratic: + 825 Republican: +383 Libertarian: +35 Unaffiliated: +317 Total: +1560

Broken out as a % of new registrations: Democratic 52.9% Republican 24.6% Libertarian 2.2% Unaffiliated 20.3%


Even though raw numbers of new voters declined significantly yesterday, Democrats continue to lead new registrations (and votes at early voting) by more than a 2 to 1 margin over Republicans.

The actual numbers of votes has not yet been updated on the NC Board of Elections page and I will post those when they are available.

Early voting will be affected slightly--but mostly in Republican counties--by the Tropical Storm Sandy with closure of some early voting locations today and tomorrow.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251180844

If the coastal area gets slammed with wind and rain causing flooding, it's possible that there will be voters who will never get to the polls....but again may disproportionately affect Republican voters.

All in all...early voting looks to be going extremely well with high turnout and continuing better numbers of new Democratic registered voters than Republicans.

We're going BLUE in NC!!!!

GOTV!

[mnhtnbb]

123. DEM VOTES EXCEED REPUB votes by 250,503 votes as of yesterday in NC!!!!!

Dems continue to build a margin (look at previous day of 227,320) + 23,183!

1,343,018 votes have been cast = 20.3 % of registered voters.


% of Dem registered voters who have already voted: 23.5%
% of Repub registered voters who have already voted: 20.5%


BUT the total pool of Dem voters EXCEEEDS the total pool of Repub voters by 809,131 voters.

ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx06xx2012_Stats.pdf

And yes, the Obama campaign is still running ads here. I saw the Morgan Freeman narrated one last
night on a local channel via Time Warner Cable in Chapel Hill.

[outsideworld]

122. Are we still down compared to 08

[OldDem2012]

124. Have you read ANY of the update posts in this thread?? nt.

[mnhtnbb]

125. It's very difficult to make comparison to 08 on anything other than raw numbers.

Yes, we have DINO's in NC--but it's possible many of them may have switched
party registrations in order to vote in Republican primary this year. Or, they may
have switched because of racism issues. The raw number difference between
registered Dems and registered Repubs from this year to 08 is off by about 40,000--
but it's hard to know whether those voters switched to unaffiliated or Republican
or Libertarian or whether it's a new influx of Republicans to the state.

Just looking at the voter registrations during early voting...Dems are running
a better than 2 to 1 rate of registering Dems...and I doubt they are registering
as Dems in order to vote for Romney.

So...I remain optimistic.

[kansasobama]

126. Bring all pollsters to their knees, NC

Pull that big upset

[mnhtnbb]

128. ------------------UPDATE #4----------------------

Keeping up with the changes in voter registrations due to one stop registration and early vote in NC, here are

Voter Registration as of 10/29/2012 Democratic: 2,852,150 Republican: 2,041,921 Libertarian: 18,763 Unaffiliated: 1,698,901 Total: 6,611,735

http://www.ncsbe.gov/content.aspx?id=93


The difference between these numbers (which reflect Saturday and Sunday early register/vote) is

Democratic: +2571 Republican: +1432 Libertarian: +82 Unaffiliated: +1269 Total: +5354

Broken out as a % of new registrations: Democratic: 48.02% Republican: 26.75% Libertarian: 1.53% Unaffiliated: 23.7%


While this does represent some gains for Republicans--Dem registration has dropped from a better than 2 to 1 rate
to 1.8 to 1--it still shows Dems leading in the raw numbers contest.


And here are the raw totals for votes : 1,505,751 votes have been cast: of those 281,606 MORE Democratic votes have been cast, which shows the lead widening for total numbers of Democratic votes cast over Republican votes. The previous total was
250,503 more Democratic votes than Republican votes cast as of last Friday.

ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx06xx2012_Stats.pdf


So Democrats are still successfully going to the polls in greater numbers than Republicans!

GOTV!!! We're going to turn NC BLUE!

[mnhtnbb]

129. Dem votes in NC now exceed Repub votes by 281,606

[whttevrr]

130. Thank You!

2 Things:

1.) Thank You for the info and updates!

2.) Thank You North Carolina! Go, go, go!



Now, if we could just find some actual fair and balanced reporting from the talking bobbleheads on TV...

But this is good.

[mnhtnbb]

131. ------------------UPDATE #5----------------------

No change in Voter registrations as of now---or perhaps they haven't been updated.

This is the same as yesterday: Voter Registration as of 10/30/2012 Democratic: 2,852,150 Republican: 2,041,921 Libertarian: 18,763 Unaffiliated: 1,698,901 Total: 6,611,735


However, there are new vote totals: 1,697,604 votes have been cast (25.7% of total registered voters)


Democratic: 835,773

Republican: 531,134 votes

Unaffiliated: 329,992

Libertarian: 3,241


That's 304,639 MORE DEM votes than Repubs.....again showing an INCREASE in the margin of Dem voters over Repubs from
the previous day numbers. Some of this could be related to early voting locations being closed in the Outer Banks because
of Hurricane Sandy (Repub areas) or it could also just be the fabulous ground game of OFA.

Turn it blue, NC!

[chapel hill dem]

135. Can you provide a link to this data?

I usually go to
http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/

and they are not as current as your numbers.
Thanks!

[mnhtnbb]

136. Sorry. Usually post the link. Too distracted this a.m. with Sandy news on the tube.

ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx06xx2012_Stats.pdf

[chapel hill dem]

139. Thanks! n/t

[mnhtnbb]

132. 304,639 MORE DEM votes than Repubs have been cast in NC as of today!

[bushisanidiot]

133. Excellent! An NC or VA win would seal Romney's fate as someone who once ran for POTUS but no one

really remembers.. a FOOTNOTE in history.

[politicaljunkie41910]

134. Make sure that those people in the trenches know how much we appreciate what they are doing.

[johnnyrocket]

137. Winning NC would be so freaking sweet. Sweet southern icing on the cake.

[bigregg4838]

140. Thanks. This makes me feel a tad bit better! nt

[mnhtnbb]

142. ------------------UPDATE #6----------------------

OK, we continue to have changes in the numbers of voter registrations--reflecting early one stop registration and voting--here they are: Voter Registration as of 10/31/2012 Democratic: 2,854,886 Republican: 2,043,739 Libertarian: 18,856 Unaffiliated: 1,699,984 Total: 6,617,465

http://www.ncsbe.gov/content.aspx?id=93

Here are the differences reflected between last report and today 10/31/2012

Democratic: + 2736 Republican: + 1818 Libertarian: +93 Unaffiliated: 1083 Total: 5730

Broken out as a % of new voters: Democratic 47.75% Republican 31.73% Libertarian 1.62% Unaffiliated 18.9%

While we are no longer seeing Dems outregister Repubs by a better than 2 to 1 ratio, they are still leading at 1.5 to 1 ratio.

In terms of actual voting numbers 1,876,309 votes have been cast. Of those, 914,697 were Dems; 592,712 were Repubs.

The margin of Dem votes has widened to 321,985 MORE votes than Repubs.

ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx06xx2012_Stats.pdf

[VirginiaTarheel]

144. How about turnout in urban and college town counties?

[mnhtnbb]

148. You can check numbers by county here

http://www.ncsbe.gov/content.aspx?id=93

open the file for 2012 absentee reports (Nov 6 General Election) all county counts

[mnhtnbb]

143. NEW margin of DEM votes over Repub votes: 321,985!

[VirginiaTarheel]

145. very nice

[VirginiaTarheel]

146. NC likely to exceed 2 million early voters today

[NCLefty]

147. Add +2 absentee ballots mailed yesterday :)

[mnhtnbb]

149. ++

[mnhtnbb]

150. ------------------UPDATE #7----------------------

It's now been a week since I started tracking the NUMBERS--not polls or pundit opinions--and we've seen nothing
but NEW Democrats registering/voting in greater numbers than Republicans in NC AND watched the margin of
Democrats compared to Republicans who've voted INCREASE with each new round of numbers.

Here are the latest numbers:

Voter Registration as of 11/01/2012 Democratic: 2,856,934 Republican: 2,044,951 Libertarian: 18,918 Unaffiliated: 1,700,828 Total: 6,621,631

http://www.ncsbe.gov/

Here are the differences between yesterday and today's numbers:

Democratic: +2048 Republican: + 1212 Libertarian: + 62 Unaffiliated: + 844 Total: 4166

Broken out as a % of new registrations: Democratic 49.16% Republican 29.09% Libertarian 1.49% Unaffiliated 20.26%


So, new Democrats continue to outnumber new registered Republicans by a ratio of 1.7 to 1.

The total of registered Democrats outnumbers registered Republicans by 811,983.


And finally, 2,059,125 voters have already cast ballots. The number of Democrats who have cast ballots exceeds Republicans by
342,174!

ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx06xx2012_Stats.pdf


And, I'm going to start reporting a new number today.

Registered Democrats who have NOT yet cast a ballot: 1,853,384

Registered Republicans who have NOT yet cast a ballot: 1,386,427


Those are the numbers. IF we GOTV--and registered Dems vote for Barack Obama--they cannot catch us.

WE CAN DO THIS!!!! TURN NC BLUE

[mnhtnbb]

151. NEW margin of DEM votes over Repub votes: 342,174

[beac]

153. If I put as many of these

in my post as I'd like to, I think I'd crash the system.

BRAVI, good Democrats of North Carolina!! You are doing GREAT work!!

[mnhtnbb]

154. ------------------UPDATE #8----------------------

New numbers heading in to the last weekend of early voting:

Voter Registration as of 11/02/2012 Democratic: 2,859,075 Republican: 2,046,224 Libertarian: 18,972 Unaffiliated: 1,701,734 Total: 6,626,005

http://www.ncsbe.gov/

The difference between numbers from the previous day and today:

Democratic: +2141 Republican: +1273 Libertarian: +54 Unaffiliated: +906 Total: 4374

Broken out as a % of new registrations: Democratic 49% Republican 29% Libertarian 1% Unaffiliated 21%

New Democratic voter registrations continue to outpace Republican by a rate of 1.7 to 1.

The total of registered Democrats now exceeds the total of registered Republicans by 812,851.

Total number of early votes has not yet been updated on the NC Board of Elections website. I will post
those new numbers once they are available.

[mnhtnbb]

155. 2,254,538 votes have been cast in NC: 364,676 MORE Dem than Repub votes

ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx06xx2012_Stats.pdf

[ncgrits]

156. Thank you mnhtnbb! This is the best thread!!! I check in every day!

From your neighbor to the north, up old 86, in Hillsberry!
You are doing an awesome job!

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

157. I love this thread and I'm more than 500 miles away

Very nice job. Thank You!

[mnhtnbb]

160. You're welcome!

[mnhtnbb]

159. Glad you like it! Watching the people coming out to vote every day

keeps my hopes up!

for all of us in NC!

[VirginiaTarheel]

158. getting close to total early voters in NC in 2008 (2.5 million)

[mnhtnbb]

161. ------------------UPDATE #9----------------------

Voter registration now stands at:

Democratic: 2,861,950 Republican: 2,047,916 Libertarian: 19,066 Unaffiliated: 1,702,972 Total: 6,631,904

ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx06xx2012_Stats.pdf

The difference between yesterday and today's numbers:

Democratic: +2875 Republican: +1692 Libertarian: +94 Unaffiliated: 1238 Total: 5899

Broken out as a % of new registrations: Democratic: 48.7% Republican 28.7% Libertarian 1.6% Unaffiliated 21%

So the Dems continue the streak of outregistering new voters by a margin of 1.7 to 1 over Republicans.


A total of 396,087 MORE DEMS have cast a ballot than Repubs.


ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx06xx2012_Stats.pdf

We're going to do this! Turn NC Blue!

[mnhtnbb]

162. A total of 396,087 MORE DEMS have cast a ballot than Repubs.

[VirginiaTarheel]

163. Wonderful

[mnhtnbb]

164. ------------------FINAL UPDATE #10----------------------

Here are the latest numbers from the NC Board of Elections

Voter Registration as of 11/04/2012 Democratic: 2,867,700 Republican: 2,051,020 Libertarian: 19,217 Unaffiliated: 1,705,587 Total: 6,643,524

http://www.ncsbe.gov/content.aspx?id=93


Here are the differences--from the final day of early voting and chance to register/vote same day--compared to the previous day:

Democratic: + 5750 Republican: + 3104 Libertarian: + 151 Unaffiliated: + 2615 Total: +11,620

Broken out as a % of new voters: Democratic 49.5% Republican 26.7% Libertarian 1.3% Unaffiliated 22.5%



In the final day of early voting new Democratic voters were registered at the rate of 1.9 to 1 new Republican voters.

435,000 MORE Dems have voted than Repubs in early voting

Dems have a pool of 381,680 MORE registered Dems remaining to vote on Tuesday--which means this can be done.

ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx06xx2012_Stats.pdf


The Obama ground game in NC has been heroic. Just fabulous. Now, it remains to get the rest of the Democrats who have yet to vote to the polls on Tuesday.

Let's turn NC BLUE!

[-LOKI -BAD FOR YA]

166. nc going blue,will change 2016 Presidential math,the future is bright blue

the fact that nc could go blue and stay blue .the thought of this happening with magnify the important of nc. it with take on the important of ohio in future Presidential races.