538 had the Clinton Polls-Plus forecast at >99% with an average polling lead of 21 points.

[pantsonfire]

Michigan may have been an anomaly, but it raises hope looking at the current forecast of NY they are projecting.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

1. Yep I take 538 with a pinch of salt they are on the Clinton dole

[pantsonfire]

2. They are not, they just have a methodology that isn't perfect...

....for the rest of the primaries they have predicted the results fairly well. Michigan was there biggest blunder, NY might be the second.

[Trenzalore]

26. Michigan's last competitive Presidential Primary was 1992

2000 and 2008 Michigan was in one trouble or another with the DNC and their primary didn't count. It made it very hard to come up with a likely turnout model.

[jcgoldie]

14. oops

Sorry I just had a Romney '12 flashback... wish you Bernie folks had someone to "unskew" the polls like they did... good grief.

[GeorgiaPeanuts]

22. Who did 538 consult to unskew Michigan

[jcgoldie]

23. I think you have your slogan

"We'll always have Michigan." Maybe someone can write a romantic comedy about star-crossed Bernie lovers from Saginaw in a couple years. It tugs on the heart strings.

[reformist2]

3. That's embarrassing. ;)

[BreakfastClub]

4. Raises hope for whom?? nt

[JackRiddler]

5. Turnout - motivation - is everything.

Screw the polls, we've been allowing this constant manipulation and distraction. What happened to issues? Blah blah blah the numbers always say the result is predetermined, so only losers even talk about those!

Primary polling is the most dubious. If they turn out right in one case or the other, do they audit whether their "likely voter" model actually held up, or whether it was still only a lucky hit?

538 treated Michigan the same way the faux-experts treated the 2007-8 crash: Astonishing! Black swan! No one could have imagined!

Did they say something was wrong, and change the model? Ha! They were off in Wisconsin again by 6-8 points.

In any case, if it really was a hard science and they could predict perfectly, what would that mean? Would we still have elections?! Why bother, right? No doubt this has affected turnout - possibly even against Clinton, since she's always such a damn lock.

It's deeply unethical how the pollsters don't acknowledge their influence, and just keep pretending they're impartial observers and proliferating new variations of the same bullshit.

[pantsonfire]

6. I >99% agree with you, MoE, last week many people decide who to vote for....

....I'm also interested in the issues, but some perspective is good. I posted a thread about "inverted totalitarianism" you might be infinitely more interested in....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10027752936

[Tarc]

7. Open primary vs closed primary. Apples and oranges

[pantsonfire]

16. Just google Michigan Open Primary.....n/t

[DCBob]

8. The Independents in Michigan caused that.

Independents are not allowed to vote in NY or MD or PA Dem primaries.

[paulthompson]

9. No early voting

And New York plus four out of five states the next week allow no early voting. That's a big boost to Sanders, since Clinton does very well with early voting. It allows for a late swing.

Let's say Sanders does well at Thursday's debate. In a state like Florida, by the time the debate in Miami happened, 80% had voted already, so his performance didn't matter much. In New York, it'll be close to 0% voted already (there's a small number of absentee voters). Oh, and Sanders lost early voters in Florida by about 35 points, but lost election day votes by about 12 points. In state after state, he gets a late swing in his direction. That will be amplified with no early voting.

[DCBob]

11. Wont matter... she already has big lead with regular LVs.

I also don't think many will watch that debate and most have surely made up their minds by now. Plus the fact no Independents.

New York is a Hillary win. No doubt about it.

[NuclearDem]

10. Michigan was an open primary.

New York is a closed primary.

[jfern]

13. Pollsters know about these things

[Adrahil]

19. Many of the polls way underestimated

The independent vote in Michigan.

[jfern]

25. People self indentified independents or registered independents?

Because New York will still have self identified independents voting.

[Adrahil]

30. Self-identified

The only data is from exit polls, so it has to be self-identified. But the reality is that Clinton does MUCH better in closed primaries. There can be no last second influx of "independent" voters.

[jfern]

31. Closed primaries have more self identified independents who are registered as Democrats

[Adrahil]

33. I'd agree with that.

My guess is it will not be enough to overcome her advantage among democrats. She won Democrats in Michigan 58-40 and in Mass 60-40. That's a lot to make up.

[jfern]

12. I wonder if it was greater than 99.9% or 99.99%. Bernie narrowly winning NY would be less shocking

[pantsonfire]

15. I was thinking Lysol percentage...so 99.99. n/t

[pdsimdars]

17. Woo-hoo, slam dunk for Bernie!!!

[Adrahil]

18. Michigan was an open primary

Clinton won Democrats in Michigan by nearly 20 points.

[pantsonfire]

20. Since then? What about all the other demographics? n/t

[jcgoldie]

21. The problem for Bernie

Is that even if lightning struck a second time and he won New York against all odds... 49-48 doesn't get him any closer to the nomination. He's -210 delegates... he needs to win by a lot most everywhere.

[pantsonfire]

24. He needs to win in NY and win about 56.5% from there to tie...

...still a long shot, but NY would be a yuuuge blow for the Clinton campaign.

[Buzz Clik]

27. Open primary Michigan. Closed in NY with no chance of changing affiliation.

Apples vs oranges.

But, if Sanders loses by more than 5%, he is totally and completely finished.

[Csainvestor]

28. Hillary was supposed to win Wisconsin as well

They had Hillary winning Wisconsin as well, it wasn't until a few nights before the primary that the polls started to narrow. on top of that, they didn't show Bernie winning by double-digits. 538 has been atrocious this year.

[pantsonfire]

29. yeah and that changed dramatically in the last week...

[Renew Deal]

32. Greatest upset in 30 years

Get back to me around 2046