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From A Poster At Princeton Consortium Re: The Cell Phone Effect
Peter D // Oct 24, 2012 at 1:45 pm
OK. Quiet down. Original research here.
Pollster has 23 polls entirely conducted after the first debate on October 3. 2 of them are internet polls, which I threw out.
8 of them polled cell phones. 11 of them did not. Of the ones that did not poll cell phones, O led by an average of 0.4%.
Of the ones that did poll cell phones, O led by an average of 3%.
Using the reported % of cell respondents suggests a beta of 0.1. So for each 10% of the electorate that are cell onlies, the O margin increases by 1%.
Based on the latest CDC estimates, 33% of Ohioans 18 and over are cell-only and 18% are cell-mostly.
(http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr061.pdf)
The tricky part is translating this into turnout. However, the modal (non-zero) industry weighting of 22% seems fair, if not low. My parents, for example, have stopped answering their landlines due to the deluge of political calls.
Conclusion: the Ohio lead is at least 2.5%, possibly, larger. I remain unconcerned. I may repeat this analysis for Virginia at a later time.
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/23/debate-3-obama-wins/#comments
OK. Quiet down. Original research here.
Pollster has 23 polls entirely conducted after the first debate on October 3. 2 of them are internet polls, which I threw out.
8 of them polled cell phones. 11 of them did not. Of the ones that did not poll cell phones, O led by an average of 0.4%.
Of the ones that did poll cell phones, O led by an average of 3%.
Using the reported % of cell respondents suggests a beta of 0.1. So for each 10% of the electorate that are cell onlies, the O margin increases by 1%.
Based on the latest CDC estimates, 33% of Ohioans 18 and over are cell-only and 18% are cell-mostly.
(http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr061.pdf)
The tricky part is translating this into turnout. However, the modal (non-zero) industry weighting of 22% seems fair, if not low. My parents, for example, have stopped answering their landlines due to the deluge of political calls.
Conclusion: the Ohio lead is at least 2.5%, possibly, larger. I remain unconcerned. I may repeat this analysis for Virginia at a later time.
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/23/debate-3-obama-wins/#comments
4 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
Or even one point-plus.
All is good here.
R&
