Colorado early voting: a chink in the OFA GOTV armor

[geek tragedy]

OFA is supposed to have a big organizational edge against Romney in Colorado. It's not showing up in the numbers yet.


http://www.9news.com/news/local/article/295907/222/325000-Colo-ballots-cast-after-2-days-of-early-voting

DENVER - More than 325,000 ballots had already been cast in Colorado by mail or in early voting center as of Wednesday morning, according to figures released by the Colorado Secretary of State's office.

Republican turnout outpaced Democrats by more than 5,000 registered voters.

The turnout breaks down into percentages as follows:


•39 percent Republican
•37 percent Democrat
•24 percent Unaffiliated/Other

Not only behind in absolute terms vs the Republicans, but a significant decline vs 2008 figures.

The breakdown on Oct. 23, 2008 was:


•40 percent Democrat
•33 percent Republican
•27 percent Unaffiliated/Other

Our path to victory was never dependent on Colorado. Still, one wonders what's going on out there.

[catbyte]

1. Rachel Maddow said the other night there's a lot of voter registration shenanigans going on there

She called it "The New Florida"

[Panasonic]

5. There shouldn't be any - except for maybe Sproul's work.

Scott Gessler has been slapped down repeatedly by the courts, and is already in trouble for using government money for partisan purposes (he went to RNC on taxypayer's dollars and also went to some other Republican related convention)

But we happen to know that RNC here in Colorado has used Sproul for registration purposes - that's where I'd start investigating and ultimately indict Sproul, Rove and the rest of his corrupt assholes for felony electioneering and falsifying voter records. With that many counts upwards of maybe 250,000 - each count should carry 5 years, to be served consecutively.

[Maximumnegro]

2. Who cares. That's why it's a firewall.

OH+NV = Obama win. Both states are a lock at this point.

[geek tragedy]

4. OH+NV+WI is the firewall.

NV is the safest of those three.

Still, we should be making Romney sweat in Colorado, if not actually taking the lead.

[Maximumnegro]

9. Romney is sweating plenty

There's less than 2 wks left. He can only do so much. It's over. He cannot get OH, NV, and IA or WI.

[woolldog]

21. Those aren't "locks"

stop that shit.

California, NY are locks. Ohio is not a lock.

[Maximumnegro]

24. Yeah it is.

You can chew your fingernails all you want. It's 2 f*ckin weeks. Please tell me how Romney can take a state he has never led in in that time.

Please. I would love to know.

There's a point where 'reality' swings the other way. It's time to face the reality that barring Obama dropping his pants at a rally and taking a shit on stage, he is locked for re-election. Math is math.

[woolldog]

30. Take nothing for granted.

Remember 2000? Your attitude that the election is in the bag is just as harmful as the doom and gloom attitude.

[Panasonic]

3. Not worried at all.

Look at the 27% Unaffiliated/Other - will break big for Obama.

He can have up to maybe 70% of the vote.

Yes, there are Republicans for Obama.

[geek tragedy]

6. Maybe they will. But this shows that the Republicans are outperforming

the Democrats in early voting GOTV. For whatever reason, the data suggests that OFA isn't as effective in Colorado as it is in Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, or even Florida.

[Cali_Democrat]

7. Outperforming by only 2 points

[geek tragedy]

10. But they were 7 points better than the Republicans in 2008.

The data is incomplete, but this seems to indicate that the GOTV efforts in Colorado are very evenly matched, compared to the mismatches in other states.

[Hutzpa]

14. 7 points is outperforming, 2 points is not

just thought I'll point that out to you.

[geek tragedy]

19. Exactly. OFA outperformed the Republicans in 2008.

It's not outperforming them in 2012.

That's the issue--the Republicans have closed the gap, if one believes the data.

It's probably not a coincidence that the Obama campaign feels a lot more confident in the states where it's kicking butt in the early voting--Iowa, Ohio--than in Colorado and Virginia.

[CreekDog]

18. McCain had no ground game and no money in 2008 (by this point anyway)

it was laughable.

they were likely to do better in this way this time around.

[Panasonic]

8. Well, it's a battle.

Truthfully - while I see many Rmoney signs taken down (and some blown away by a powerful gust storm a week ago) my parents are already +2 Romney, while I have not yet voted, and will vote on Election Day, and will be mailing my wife's ballot tonight.

[progressivebydesign]

11. Tho you're given to these dire posts... How do you KNOW that the (R)s are voting Romney?

You don't. But you can look at the demographics of early voting in other States and see that the Demographics favor the President. If you recall, the reason the President kicked ass in 2008, was because republicans and unaffiliated came over to his side of things. You can see that in every single breakdown of the last Pres. election. Republicans voted for the Democratic Candidate, as did the unaffiliated.

Unless you have a crystal ball, you don't know how those votes were cast. States like Colorado, there will be some definite crossover.

[geek tragedy]

12. This isn't dire, but registered Republicans are going to vote for Romney.

I mean, come on.

Colorado isn't a tipping point state, but rather a "run up the score" state.

But, thus far no indication that OFA is better than the Republican ground game.

[meadowlark5]

13. My husband and I are registered independent but usually vote dem

I haven't even dropped my ballot off yet. I can't guarantee Obama will win Colorado but I don't see all that much enthusiasm for Romney here. In 2008 the cars plastered with McCain/Palin stickers, the yard signs the big obnoxious billboard signs on rural ranch properties for McCain/Palin. I'm not seeing that this time around for Romney. I was actually surprised when Obama won Colorado in 2008 because it is pretty red here. If I'm not mistaken, 2008 was the first time Colorado went red in about 10yrs. I know our demographics have changed with a larger Latino population, but there are a lot of cowboys, rednecks, hunters, evangelicals and rich people here.

But that puke Scott Gessler (sec of State) has been screwing around with voter rolls for months now so I have no idea how that's going to shake out for the pres here

[Hutzpa]

17. Keep us updated. nt

[smorkingapple]

15. Latinos Latinos Latinos... That's our CO firewall...

[kansasobama]

16. The author is correct in his concerns

To be frank, I am glad this is put out. I really thought CO was for Dems and would be disappointed otherwise. In 2010, the state voted a Dem Senate candidadte. I would have expected better in 2012. Morever, Hispanic vote there should have been good. Also, lot of environmental voters there should be doing some work. It is a mystery what is happening there.

Also, with the Ryan budget, I would have expected Florida to be not a dog fight. But, now we have to do what is best. We need to corner WI, IA, NH, and Nevada (and OH)

[meadowlark5]

20. The reason that Colorado voted for Dem senators and governor is because the repubs were

tea bag wingnuts. And Denver city/county is highly populated and lean dem. Boulder as well but not as populated. That was our only saving grace not getting Ken Buck as a senator. He was so conservative and a boorish loudmouth, the dems and moderate repubs voted to keep him from becoming senator. Hickenlooper was the Denver mayor so he was a shoe in for governor. If it weren't for Denver city/county to tip the scales, this state would be blood red every election.

[JRLeft]

22. My mom felt like Colorado was a lost cause, after she canvassed there for almost 2 weeks.

[meadowlark5]

25. I looked at an election/vote map after the election in 2008

There were tiny dots of blue in a sea of red. Denver city/county was blue, Boulder was blue and then a few pin point dots of blue scattered throughout a whole state of red.

I know everyone wants Colorado and was hoping for Colorado, but it's really conservative in most of this state. If Obama wins it, I will be just as surprised, if not more so, this time than in 2008. Then with Scott Gessler's purge and the Romney voting machines, I'm just hoping for a good result but feel more hopeful for other swing states than this one.

[Drahthaardogs]

35. No way.

Pueblo, Huerfano, and Las Animas Counties (coal and steel country) have been blue for decades.

[meadowlark5]

39. Here is an article about the 2008 election in Colo and it does say without Denver and Boulder county

Obama would have lost by 6500 votes. There are actually more blue dots on that map than I remember, but this state isn't as dem leaning as people think. Like I said, 2008 going blue for president was a first in many years. The plus, however, is we do have an increased Latino population and many of them have registered to vote this time. If we get a good turn out, we might be able to turn Colorado blue again!

http://mypolitikal.com/2010/10/05/analyzing-swing-states-colorado-part-4/

[joshcryer]

51. Don't forget that McCain wanted to share Colorado's water and the Pinon Canyon...

...military industrial complex expansion had a big push back.

The Democrats promised to keep Pinon Canyon military free. And McCain talking about sharing Colorado's water was just a guarantee fail on his behalf. If I recall correctly the big newspapers predicted his downfall for that idiocy.

[ProSense]

23. This is a bogus concern

In 2008, Obama got 13 percent of the Republican vote and 54 percent of the independent vote.

Romney may get less.

[geek tragedy]

26. I can guarantee you he won't repeat those numbers in 2012.

Colorado is not a D+9 state.

[ProSense]

29. No you can't.

The Hispanic vote has increased, and is not being factored into current polls.



http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251141125

[geek tragedy]

32. Well, the supposedly hidden Latino vote isn't showing up in early voting either.

Republicans are doing every bit as good as Democrats at turning out early voters in 2012.

[ProSense]

33. You're still talking turnout numbers and not support.

If the President is getting a percentage of the indepedent/unaffiliated and Republican vote equivalent to 2008, he's leading. Note, that's based on the current numbers.

[geek tragedy]

34. This is a discussion about turnout/GOTV/ground game.

The turnout numbers indicate that our GOTV is not significantly better than theirs--they are getting Republicans to the polls just as well, if not better, than we are getting Democrats to the polls.

That's what this thread is saying.

Now, are the independents who have voted supporting Obama or Romney? We have no idea.

[Maximumnegro]

27. Given Obama's margins in 2008

Find it hard to believe there is cause for alarm after 2 days of (incomplete) data.

[grantcart]

28. Possibly, let's see what happens when you have a weekend added to the figures.

They wouldn't be sending the President there if they didn't think that it was winnable.

[geek tragedy]

31. It's winnable for sure, but for whatever reason we don't have a GOTV edge.

It'll come down to messaging more than ground game there.

[Jennicut]

36. Right now in CO there are more registered Repubs then Dems.

CO is certainly more tricky then some of the other states because there are more Repubs. There has not been a lot of polling done in CO and the last poll this week was Rasmussen and that was R plus 4. But it is Rasmussen. I have no clear picture of CO.

Thankfully, it is not needed and I think we have a better shot in NH and IA.

[amborin]

37. you beat me to saying this; CO is one of 2 swings where this is the case.

[Jennicut]

38. NH is the other one but independents outnumber both Dems and Repubs there.

OH, VA and WI do not have party affiliation for registering.

[amborin]

42. this proves it all hinges on GOTV

assuming indies break for us or at least split their vote. do we know their numbers in those states?

[Jennicut]

43. Not sure, I will track the numbers down.

[amborin]

45. ps

Lyin Ryan spoke in Cleveland on poverty, LOL:

http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2012/10/24/1078681/eight-ryan-poverty/

[Jennicut]

48. OMG.

You are like a God today. All knowing.
Maybe Mittens can stuff Ryan in a locker in Ohio and keep him there until the end of the election.
I wonder if he realizes that Ryan was a mistake for VP.

[amborin]

50. more here: basically, contraception is bad; LOL

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/ryan-contraception-coverage-rule-threat-to-poor

[wildeyed]

40. Not good news.

That story didn't give much info. I would be interested in the total number of voters, ethnicity and gender as well as the percentages.

[geek tragedy]

41. 325,000 voters, compared to about 85,000 at this date in 2008.

Which seems to indicate that the Republicans have really brought their A game in Colorado.

Not sure why they're such a trainwreck in Ohio, though, but I'd much rather have the advantage in the state with 18 EV than the one with 9.

[LisaL]

44. Hey. It's not republicans that are a train wreck in OH. It's democrats that are showing up

in larger numbers than in 2008.

[ProSense]

46. The 40 percent was of 85,000?

That means there is a significant increase in turnout across the board.

The final early voting numbers were: D 38, R 36 and other 26.

The fact that out of 325,000, Republicans are ahead by 5,000 is good to know, but may not be all that significant. As I said, based on the current numbers, if Obama matches his 2008 percentages, he's leading.

[wildeyed]

47. That is a huge increase

The theory is that the pubs are turning out their regular voters, just doing it early. So they are transferring votes from election day to the early period, but not really getting more votes overall. OFA claims to be turning out unlikely voters while holding their base.

I guess we shall see on November 6th. Just grateful that the Ohio polls AND early vote totals seem to be holding up.

[LisaL]

49. Unlike NC, and Fl, we don't have a registration advantage in Co.

Large number of people in CO register as un-affiliated. Question is, who are they voting for?

[joshcryer]

52. Obama has been playing ads here about mail in ballots.

I think the teabaggers have seen those ads and just decided to apply. It's the most painless way to vote ever.

[meadowlark5]

53. I'm still not seeing many Romney ads here

Either he thinks he's got it in the bag or they'll just get Tagg's voter machines to flip some votes or the ad blitz won't start till next week - but I see far more Obama ads on tv here than willard.