A question about the ARKANSAS poll today showing ROMNEY (+27)

[TroyD]

Could states like this be what is giving Romney a Tie in the National polls?

Obviously states like this don't effect the outcome of the Electoral College since we know they will vote Republican (unless the Constitution is changed to allow Bill Clinton to run again ), but polls like this might provide a clue as to what is going on out there.

Romney is doing much better in this state than McCain did, or than Bush did.

McCain won it by 20 points in 2008, and Bush by 10 in 2004.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ar/arkansas_romney_vs_obama-2918.html


So if Romney is getting better numbers in the South, this could be artificially inflating the strength of his National numbers.

http://www.uark.edu/depts/plscinfo/partners/arkpoll/12/2012_Arkansas_Poll_Summary_Report.pdf

[Ned_Devine]

1. On the flip side of that coin, I live in MA where Obama has a sizable lead

[TroyD]

3. Yes, but Obama is actually DOWN a few points from his 2008 MA numbers

So MA is not inflating Obama's numbers because he's below 2008 levels there.

Romney appears to be ABOVE 2008 McCain levels in some of these Southern states which means that more of the Republican vote is coming from the South in 2012 than in 2008.

That's a problem for the Republicans when it comes to the Electoral College. Romney is also ahead of where McCain was in TEXAS according to recent polls. It doesn't matter how much better than McCain Romney does in those states. It's whether he can beat Obama in the swing states. If he can't, his Electoral College number won't be good.

[Floyd_Gondolli]

10. The margins are bigger in red states

For example, Obama may win MA by 15 to 20 pts. But, he'll lose by 30 to 40 pts (or more) in my state (Okla.). Obama didn't win a single county here in 2008 which is the only state in the country where McCain swept every county. Margins will be similar in places like Kansas, Ark. Etc. this year. So even if Obama is running up nice margins in states like MA Romney is getting even bigger margins out of the deep red states.

[hrmjustin]

2. I think these polls exaggerate Romney's support in the south.

[Cannikin]

4. As an Arkansas resident...

It seems to be that nobody likes Romney, they just plan to vote against Obama. I'm a little shocked his numbers are so high. Democrats have been very vocal this season and are proudly standing with the president, where as we are usually a small minority that get's shouted down quickly.

[DCBob]

5. Yes. It explains why national polling is very misleading..

and essentially worthless at this point when we have so many states polls out now.

[progressivebydesign]

6. TroyD, you're a smart person. Do you really need to ask that?

Of course it is. That's the point of all the hankie clutchers around here having fits over National polling numbers.

[Sekhmets Daughter]

7. Yes, it's been talked about for about a week now....

Romney is winning many of the southern states by huge numbers but, as you know and have stated, those states don't help him that much in the electoral college race. Arkansas has 6 electoral votes....so Romney could win every single vote there and it means nothing.
Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Oklahoma and West Virginia account for a total of 50 electoral votes. California, all by itself, accounts for 55.

[TroyD]

8. If Hillary runs in 2016

She could win Arkansas.

[Amphigouri]

9. Um...no

That is greatly offset by more populous Obama states like New York, illinois, California, etc. we should come to grips with the fact that about half of the people in this country like Obama and the other half are...stupid.

[TroyD]

11. I think you misunderstand

Yes, Obama will have big leads in NY, IL, CA etc., but that's not the issue here.

The issue is that in a state like this, Romney is polling ABOVE the level of support that McCain & Bush got. Obama is not polling above the level of support he got in 2008 in NY, IL, CA etc. (he's actually a few points below).

That means that relative to the previous election, more people in the South are voting Republican.

That means that a larger proportion of the National vote is coming from the South than in 2008.

[LisaL]

12. Yes, of course.

If Obama is losing red states by a large margin, that could give Romney a lead in a national poll.
Which amounts to exactly nothing, since that's not how one wins elections.

[pstokely]

13. But if the electoral winner gets the popular vote, they'll have a "mandate"

just like the Chimp did with 51% after they stole Ohio

[fujiyama]

14. Obama may very well do worse than '08

in the South, especially among whites. That's probably what's killing him in those states. But on the other hand, he hasn't suffered nearly the loss of support in the north, especially the industrial midwest which has benefited from the Auto bailout and a resurgence in manufacturing the last several years.

In many ways, the legacy of '64 are still with us. The only reason VA and NC are competitive now is because of the influx of immigrants and transplants from other states (due in part to good universities in those states). Demographics are changing all over (including SC, where I live), but the intense racism of the past has been largely replaced (or in some cases supplemented) with the polarization of the culture wars, and intense religious zealotry. I've noticed the lack of good universities makes a big difference.