Obama Leads Romney by 26 Percentage Points in New York (Marist)

[Welcome_hubby]

"In one of the bluest of the blue states, President Barack Obama has the support of 61% of
New York likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate
and those who voted absentee. This compares with 35% for Mitt Romney. Only 1%
supports another candidate, and 3% are undecided. President Obama won the state in
2008, 63% to 36% for McCain.
“No surprises in New York,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College
Institute for Public Opinion. “It has been and continues to be a very blue state. Senator
Kirsten Gilibrand is running ahead of her score two years ago and ahead of Obama.”"

Oct. 18-21, LV

http://content.ny1.com/downloads/NY1MaristPoll121024.pdf

[DrToast]

1. Why is anyone polling New York!?

[TroyD]

7. I don't get these questions

Do people think that only swing states should be polled?

We can't only have polls of Ohio, Florida, Iowa etc. all day.


There are other reasons to poll blue states & red states that have Obama or Romney way ahead:

1. There are Senate races in some of these states

2. There are close House races in some of them

3. Knowing how a Presidential nominee is polling in stronghold states can be a valuable form of measurement (eg. if a Presidential nominee is struggling, they will often be down even in states they should be well ahead in etc.)


When we see that Obama is doing almost as well in New York as in 2008, it's a good sign and it's a barometer that the campaign and the pollsters can use to get a sense of how things are going in other more competitive regions.

[TroyD]

2. Not bad

A couple of points below 2008 levels, but about as good as can be expected in a tougher year like 2012.

I notice the poll was taken before the last debate, so it's possible Obama may actually have gone up further after that.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

3. It was 27.

Romney's closing fast.

[ProSense]

10. .

[WI_DEM]

4. Good we need to run up those margins in blue states to make up for expected Romney

margins in deep south. If Obama actually does win by 26-points that would probably be around a 2,000,000 vote popular vote victory for the president just from NY.

[hrmjustin]

5. Marist is based here in NY so they regularly poll here.

We have several swing districts here including my own NY11. We may pick up 3 seats here, and pick up the state senate.

[BeyondGeography]

6. I love my state to the point of tears

[lolamio]

12. Me, too. I am so proud to be a New Yorker!

[alcibiades_mystery]

8. The Gilibrand endorsement by the NY Times was hilarious

It was like, "We endorse Gilibrand. That's all. No real need to say anything else."

[LiberalElite]

9. I wonder

If NY State is blue chiefly because of the millions in New York City. NYC has many more registered Democrats than Repugs and I believe most of the rest of the state leans more Repug.

[liberalmuse]

11. I just sold a vintage election game to a NYer today.

I'm assuming they're Dem, but you never know. Part of me wishes I'd kept it as a distraction for Election night.