2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDisturbing to see Palinesque attempts to delegitimize large groups of voters
Paul Krugman: "Its disturbing to see Palinesque attempts to delegitimize large groups of voters surfacing among some Democrats."____Quite a few people seem confused about the current state of the Democratic nomination race. But the essentials are simple: Hillary Clinton has a large lead in both pledged delegates and the popular vote so far. (In Democratic primaries, delegate allocation is roughly proportional to votes.) If you ask how thats possible Bernie Sanders just won seven states in a row! you need to realize that those seven states have a combined population of about 20 million. Meanwhile, Florida alone also has about 20 million people and Mrs. Clinton won it by a 30-point margin.
To overtake her, Mr. Sanders would have to win the remaining contests by an average 13-point margin, a number that will almost surely go up after the New York primary, even if he does much better than current polls suggest. Thats not impossible, but its highly unlikely.
So the Sanders campaign is arguing that superdelegates the people, mainly party insiders, not selected through primaries and caucuses who get to serve as delegates under Democratic nomination rules should give him the nomination even if he loses the popular vote. In case youre rubbing your eyes: Yes, not long ago many Sanders supporters were fulminating about how Hillary was going to steal the nomination by having superdelegates put her over the top despite losing the primaries. Now the Sanders strategy is to win by doing exactly that.
But how can the campaign make the case that the party should defy the apparent will of its voters? By insisting that many of those voters shouldnt count. Over the past week, Mr. Sanders has declared that Mrs. Clinton leads only because she has won in the Deep South, which is a pretty conservative part of the country. The tally so far, he says, distorts reality because it contains so many Southern states.
As it happens, this isnt true the calendar, which front-loaded some states very favorable to Mr. Sanders, hasnt been a big factor in the race. Also, swing-state Florida isnt the Deep South. But never mind. The big problem with this argument should be obvious. Mrs. Clinton didnt win big in the South on the strength of conservative voters; she won by getting an overwhelming majority of black voters. This puts a different spin on things, doesnt it?
Is it possible that Mr. Sanders doesnt know this, that he imagines that Mrs. Clinton is riding a wave of support from old-fashioned Confederate-flag-waving Dixiecrats, as opposed to, lets be blunt, the descendants of slaves? Maybe. He is not, as you may have noticed, a details guy.
Its more likely, however, that hes being deliberately misleading and that his effort to delegitimize a big part of the Democratic electorate is a cynical ploy.
Whos the target of this ploy? Not the superdelegates, surely. Think about it: Can you imagine Democratic Party insiders deciding to deny the nomination to the candidate who won the most votes, on the grounds that African-American voters dont count as much as whites?
No, claims that Clinton wins in the South should be discounted are really aimed at misleading Sanders supporters, giving them an unrealistic view of the chances that their favorite can still win and thereby keeping the flow of money and volunteers coming.
read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/15/opinion/the-pastrami-principle.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur&_r=0
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)when Greg Meeks and others work their communities this weekend.
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)*Full disclosure, William K Black is officially an economic advisor to Senator Sanders.
By William K. Black
April 8, 2016 Bloomington, MN
(Crossposted from Huffington Post. Postscript added for NEP)
Remember several weeks ago when Hillary Clinton was complaining that Democrats did not consider her a progressive? Bernie Sanders big win in Wisconsin ended that tactic and propelled Paul Krugman and Hillary and Bill Clinton to race to the right, inadvertently proving Bernies point that they are not progressives on the key issues.
In the last week, Hillary and her surrogates have pivoted hard right and retreated to their long-held positions on the major issues. Indeed, in several cases they have gone even farther to the right than the policies they pushed over a decade ago even though those policies proved disastrous. They also inadvertently demonstrated the terrible policies that were produced by the Clintons vaunted pragmatism and compromising with the most extreme Republican demands. That was the story of Clintons infamous welfare reform a policy both Clintons championed. Tom Frank details in his new book entitled Listen, Liberal how the Clintons pragmatism and zeal to work with the worst elements of the Republican Party led to the welfare reform bill. Zach Carter has just written the article I was planning to write about that travesty. He entitled it Nothing Bill Clinton Said To Defend His Welfare Reform Is True. I encourage you to read it.
As a criminologist (I am also an adviser to Bernie on economics), I will begin my two-part series on Hillarys race to the right with Bill Clintons effort to defend his drug law policies and Hillarys denunciation of black drug users as super predators. The second column explains Krugmans race to the right on banking in his effort to support Hillarys harp pivot to right.
Bills defense of his policies that helped feed the mass incarceration of blacks and Latinos for drug offense came in the same April 7, 2016 campaign speech in Philadelphia that led to Zach Carter skewering his defense of welfare reform. Bills speech was strongly protested by Black Lives Matter members, which led to unscripted, angry attacks by Bill on some of the protesters and prompted his defense of his crime bill and Hillarys attack on superpredators.
Bill made four key points about crime in his attempted defense and attacks on the protesters. First he claimed that his 1993 crime bill led to a huge decrease in crime. The reality is that street crimes were declining before his bill and the trend continued after the bill passed. (Elite financial crimes were surging due to the Clintons championing of the three des deregulation, desupervision and de facto decriminalization of finance but the Clintons and the authors creating and spreading the myth of the black and Latino superpredators ignored them.)
Second, Bill claimed that the bad parts of his crime bill were caused by Republican demands. Tom Franks book shows how the Clintons pragmatism and promises to work with the hard right led to him crafting a bill that produced the mass incarceration of Americans. This problem was compounded by his sentencing provision that punished crack cocaine users 100 times more severely (by weight) than powder cocaine users. When the bill was drafted it seems likely that the drafters did not know that crack cocaine was used overwhelmingly by blacks and Latinos and powder cocaine overwhelmingly by whites. A wide range of people eagerly created what social scientists call a moral panic about crack cocaine even though its effects were the same of powder. Bills crime bill achieved bipartisan support, including Bernie.
What Bill did not discuss, but what Tom Franks book emphasizes, is that the immense racial disparity in sentencing and the lack of any basis for it given the chemical equivalency of crack and powder became clear within a year after passage of the act. By 1995, the U.S. Sentencing Commission had gathered the data, conducted the analysis, and done all the drafting to repeal the disparity and Bill and the Republican Congress promptly worked pragmatically and in a bipartisan manner to block the repeal of the racist sentencing disparity. After he left office, Bill repeatedly apologized for his Crime Act, but a few days ago in Philadelphia he reverted to praising his disastrous law. He is moving exceptionally hard right back to his natural instincts when he gets off script.
Third, Bill moved so far right that he resurrected a racist position Hillary had enunciated (and later repudiated). Hillary attacked blacks who used crack as super predators. That phrase was crafted as part of the effort to generate a moral panic in order to produce the mass incarceration of blacks. CNN reported on Hillarys use of the term.
They are often the kinds of kids that are called super predators,' Clinton said in a 1996 speech, when crime was a major public concern, according to polls at the time. No conscience, no empathy, we can talk about why they ended up that way, but first we have to bring them to heel.
Hillary was quoting phrases from three ultra-right authors that were Reagan officials. None of them was a criminologist, yet they claimed that overwhelmingly black super predators were growing at such epic rates that we should be so terrified by them that we would support a full scale war against black and Latino drug users. They did not simply coin the term super predator and stress that they were primarily black they called them feral. That is the word used for a once tame animal that reverts to a wild animal. Black crack users were demonized as subhuman wild animals whose ancestors had once been tame (as slaves) and who, as Hillary demanded, must be brought to heel like trained dogs.
None of this was true, but the racist lies succeeded in creating the moral panic that caused enormous damage to our Nation. Michelle Alexanders book The New Jim Crow: Mass Incarceration in the Age of Colorblindness is an excellent treatment of the shameful result.
Hillary eventually (in 2016) recanted her adoption of the racist super predator phrase and meme. Bill is disinterring it now because he got flustered and angered by the Black Lives Matter protesters and reverted in an unscripted fit to what came reflexively.
Fourth, Bill attacked the Black Lives Matter protesters in a way that was unworthy of him. Indeed, his attack on them came directly from his bizarre effort to support Hillarys use of the term super predator months after she had repudiated that term. Bill invoked the same racist myths, using the same racist language that was employed over a decade ago even though they have been completely discredited by criminologists. CNNs report of his Philadelphia speech notes:
He also defended Hillary Clintons use of the phrase super predators.
I dont know how you would characterize the gang leaders who got 13-year-old kids hopped up on crack, and sent them out in the streets to murder other African-American children, the former president said. Maybe you thought they were good citizens she didnt.
(Bill also seems to be channeling the interrogation scene from the movie LA Confidential Were you hopped up, Ray?)
Plainly, Black Lives Matter protesters never suggested that good citizens murder children. Bills claim that they did so shows how panicked he was by Bernies big win in Wisconsin. Bills story that gang leaders
got 13-year old kids hopped up on crack, and sent them
to murder other African-American children is a racist myth. Even the ultra-hard right authors that invented the term super predator and described black crack users as akin to animals abandoned the term and their claims over five years ago. Bill has gone far to the right of the ultra-right wing by disinterring these racist myths, claiming that they were and are accurate, and making the preposterous claim that Black Lives Matter protesters support those who murder black children.
Postscript
How badly did Bill do on crime in his Philadelphia speech? Ive just found a Wall Street Journal editorial that they have posted entitled In Defense of Bill Clinton. The WSJs editorial team praises the Clintons for telling the truth about the super predators, falsely asserts that the crime bill is what reduced crime, and applauds his claim that Black Lives Matter members seek to defend those who murder black children. Murdochs minions then instruct Democrats and Black Lives Matter agitators (another racist meme buried 30 years ago that the WSJ dug up for this editorial) on why they should be praising Bills disinterring the racist fiction of gang leaders who got 13-year-olds hopped up on crack and sent them out onto the street to murder other African-American children.
Progressives at the time were happy to go along with Mr. Clintons New Democratic policies when center-right positioning seemed essential to winning the White House. But now theyre too intimidated by Black Lives Matter to tell the truth.
***
The Black Lives Matter agitators should thank President Clinton, not excoriate him.
When Murdochs mouthpieces purport to tell the truth to blacks and progressives its a sure sign that they are lying.
http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2016/04/hillary-bill-paul-krugman-race-right-stop-bern.html
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)looking at her so called Advisors,crap olla,a center right campaign eh. And our Nation was pinning for anyone Center Left,and a total change from Reaganomics to a Progressive pumping up of our Economy by investment if Infrastructure and Education. Interesting how Black resets the debate,loving it.
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)his bullshit legacy and his smarmy tactics against Bernie.
Like the "fucking retartards" on the left and the young voters we feel sorry for because they don't do research
Oh, and moveon and dfa
uponit7771
(93,532 posts)... whistles millions of PoC votes cause he's "progressive" (my ass)
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Its sickening to see a person running for the democratic nomination using terrible divisive language like this about the base voters of the democratic party!
What is he trying to accomplish? Dividing the party? I'm sure the republicans would love that!
The democratic party welcomes ALL people from ANYWHERE in this country! These divisive code words have no place in the democratic party and should be roundly condemned by all liberal democrats!
This is tea party evil working its way into the democratic party!
SunSeeker
(58,283 posts)These were DEMOCRATS, not "conservatives," and were predominantly African American. The AA vote in the South is far from conservative. They are in fact very progressive.